Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Winter Is Coming: Whither The Minsk-Vilnius-Kaliningrad Pipeline

At what point does Russia have enough financial resources (and heating-degree-days) to halt all natural gas exports to Europe.

The question arises because of rumblings that the U.S. and Lithuania are considering blocking transit via this pipe:

File:Minsk-Vilnius-Kaliningrad INTERCONNECTOR.svg

Russia would be forced to react.

That and the fact the International Energy Agency this morning, via the Irish Times, said: 

IEA warns Europe to prepare for total shutdown of Russian gas exports

Interestingly enough both Kaliningrad and Lithuania have been preparing to be supplied with LNG rather than pipe gas, with Lithuania completely weaning itself off of Gazprom's special blend. 

Not so the rest of Europe.