That would certainly shake things up:
From the always interesting Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, November 2:
Since Soviet times, Russian analysts have mused about the possibility that Germany might try to recover Kaliningrad, or East Prussia as it was known before Joseph Stalin seized it at the end of World War II. Later, during the 1990s, they focused on the risk that the non-contiguous Russian oblast might break away and form a fourth Baltic republic. Most recently, they have suggested that in the event of a military conflict between Moscow and the West, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) might seize Kaliningrad in order to launch a broader attack on the Russian Federation (see EDM August 2, 2017, July 6, 2019, October 12, 2021). These concerns, apparently, have not disappeared. But they have been joined and even eclipsed by others, including fears that Lithuania and Poland supposedly have their own plans for undermining Moscow’s control of the oblast, hoping to eventually seize it for themselves. Both of these neighboring Baltic littoral countries have viewed the territory presently occupied by Kaliningrad as historically theirs.
Such Russian discussions have increased in frequency and volume in recent weeks for three interrelated reasons. First, relations between Moscow and these two governments have deteriorated as Vilnius and Warsaw have taken increasingly anti-Russian positions: accusing Lithuania and Poland of planning to seize part of Russia is a useful propagandistic and political tool for those who want a tougher Russian policy toward the two. Second, focusing on those two countries rather than Germany avoids attacking Berlin, with which Moscow hopes to develop even closer ties. And third—and perhaps most importantly—concerns about Poland and Lithuania are part of the view of many in Moscow that Russia must integrate Belarus not only to support Vladimir Putin’s vision of a new empire but also to protect Kaliningrad as an inalienable part of the Russian Federation (see Jamestown.org, January 29, 2021).
In mid-October, RuBaltic.ru, a pro-Russian portal directed at the Baltic countries, released a 60-page report outlining what it believes to be Lithuania’s plan to seize all or part of Kaliningrad with the help of NATO (RuBaltic.ru, October 20, 2021). Written by Aleksandr Nosovich, a notoriously anti-Baltic Russian analyst, the report argues that many Lithuanians continue to view the eastern half of Kaliningrad as “Lithuania Minor,” a core part of their historical space, even though this territory was never part of any modern Lithuanian state. Moreover, he suggests that Vilnius has been egged on by the United States and “anti-Russian centers” like The Jamestown Foundation. Nosovich claims that some US analysts have suggested that, in the event of a Russian collapse, what is now Kaliningrad should be handed over to Warsaw and incorporated into Poland (RuBaltic.ru, October 27).
According to the analyst, some Lithuanian leaders believe that so long as Kaliningrad remains in Russian hands, it will be a threat to Europe and that demilitarizing that territory is only possible if it is handed over to other powers, including Lithuania and Poland. Baltic leaders believe Russia does not have the right to keep the land now that more than 50 years have passed since Moscow was given temporary control over Kaliningrad—a grace period that was supposed to end in 1995....
....MUCH MORE
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