As scribblers around the world try to fit this morning's report into their preferred storylines, we're going to go with a kicky fromage fort because for some asinine reason I was looking at CME cheese futures when the Bureau of Labor Statistics made the release:
"CPI for all items rises 0.3% in August; gasoline, food, shelter among indexes rising"
And all I could think of was cheese dip.
You'll need 225g of assorted hard and soft bits of cheese, a clove of garlic, a bottle of white wine (60 ml for the recipe and the rest for you and yours)......
Wait, where was I? BLS?
Here's the September 14 release of the August numbers:
Consumer Price Index Summary
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The indexes for gasoline, household furnishings and operations, food, and shelter all rose in August and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The energy index increased 2.0 percent, mainly due to a 2.8-percent increase in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.4 percent, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing 0.4 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, its smallest increase since February 2021. Along with the indexes for household operations and shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, recreation, and medical care also rose in August. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined over the month.
The all items index rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 5.4-percent rise for the period ending July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, also a smaller increase than the period ending July. The energy index rose 25.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 3.7 percent; both were larger than the increases for the 12-month period ending July....
....MUCH MORE
For some reason the consensus guess was higher:
Consumer Prices in U.S. Increase by Less Than Forecast
Although our thinking was laid out in September 8's "Reminder: "St. Louis Fed: Food Prices As An Indicator Of Future Inflation":
Our best guess is a lower CPI print, both headline and core, in next week's report and possibly even for the September numbers in five weeks before the shelter cost increases we have seen and will see really take hold and power the index to, possibly, a full-year 2021 headline rate of 5%.
Now for something to eat.
If interested see also April's Today In Lesser-Known Derivatives: "US futures traders gorge on cheddar amid race to lock in supplies".
