Original post:
I believe that five percentage point spread is the largest on record.
And our usual boilerplate: The Atlanta Fed estimate tends to run "hotter" than the New York Fed's best guess, with the two series converging as we get closer to report day.
First up, The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow:
Latest estimate: 9.3 percent — May 28, 2021
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.3 percent on May 28, up from 9.1 percent on May 27. After this morning’s releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 25.1 percent to 20.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.68 percentage points to -0.90 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
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We will check back later today to see what changes, if any they have made.
And from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's NowCast:May 28, 2021: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.3% for 2021:Q2.
- News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q2 by 0.3 percentage point.
- Negative surprises from real disposable income and manufacturers’ shipments and new orders data accounted for most of the decrease.
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Update:Atlanta Fed Ups Q2 GDP Growth Estimate To +10.3%
