I was at the IRI/Columbia ENSO website to check on the prospects for the Peruvian anchovy fishery this winter (El Niño can devastate the haul, see former Fed Chair Arthur Burns two posts down) and realized we hadn't done the start of the season hurricane forecast post (hurricanes, like anchovy, are more numerous during the La Niña phase of the ENSO) So, first up, IRI/Columbia's spaghetti chart of the various model runs as of May 19:
For simplicity's sake the bold blue line, the Climate Prediction Center's consolidated forecast will suffice: La Niña conditions developing into a full blown La Niña right in the gut of the hurricane season (statistical peak September 10) and then rapidly heading toward ENSO neutral for Peru's second anchovy season (the current 1st season allows for a 4% increase over last year).
And that's all I've got for the little fishies. On to hurricanes.
From Artemis' dedicated hurricane page:
2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Track activity and forecasts for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, with maps and data on every tropical depression, tropical storm and Atlantic hurricane that forms during the year. Find 2021 hurricane forecasts and a tropical storm tracking map below which will show live named storm information throughout the 2021 hurricane season. There are also links to recaps of storms so far this year, forecasts of seasonal tropical storm and hurricane activity for 2021, satellite images of the Atlantic, information from the U.S. National Hurricane Center about the current tropical conditions and links to other useful hurricane season data sources. If you find this page useful please bookmark it so you can return easily and also share it with your contacts...
.......MUCH MORE
| Forecaster | Named storms | Hurricanes | Major hurricanes | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA | 13 – 20 | 6 – 10 | 3 – 5 | – |
| Colorado State University | 18 | 8 | 4 | 150 |
| Tropical Storm Risk | 18 | 9 | 4 | 140 |
| Accuweather | 16 – 20 | 7 – 10 | 3 – 5 | 120 – 160 |
