Insurance and potentially reinsurance market losses from the ongoing wildfires across western U.S. states are now estimated to have reached between $4 billion to as much as $8 billion, by catastrophe risk modeller RMS.
The range is closely aligned with Moody’s prediction for industry losses from the wildfires so far this year, who said a week ago that the industry’s bill was now likely in a range from $5 billion to $8 billion.....MUCH MORE
With wildfires continuing to burn and another period of heatwave conditions forecast for next week across the affected western U.S. states, in particular California and Oregon, the 2020 U.S. wildfire season looks set to be another costly one for the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets.
Estimates for losses from the wildfires have risen considerably through September, particularly as the Oregon fires have wrought such destruction in residential areas.
Just two weeks ago, the industry had been discussing losses at a lower level, with most discussions with our sources around that time suggesting a $2 billion to $3 billion maximum cost to the insurance and reinsurance industry.
That has escalated quickly though, with the market now looking at another significant impact from wildfire property damages again in 2020.
RMS warned that the losses to property and costs from business interruption due to wildfires are expected to rise further, with major wildfires still active in California, Oregon, and Washington states....
On August 28 the Artemis headline was: "California wildfire season could surpass 2017’s $13bn of losses: A.M. Best"
And from the National Interagency Fire Service, the acreage burned is running about 1 million acres above the 10-year average:
| Year-to-date statistics | ||
| 2020 (1/1/20 - 9/23/20) | Fires: 43,785 | Acres: 7,012,294 |
| 2019 (1/1/19 - 9/23/19) | Fires: 38,562 | Acres: 4,354,859 |
| 2018 (1/1/18 - 9/23/18) | Fires: 48,584 | Acres: 7,367,251 |
| 2017 (1/1/17 - 9/23/17) | Fires: 48,811 | Acres: 8,537,429 |
| 2016 (1/1/16 - 9/23/16) | Fires: 44,307 | Acres: 4,858,131 |
| 2015 (1/1/15 - 9/23/15) | Fires: 48,652 | Acres: 9,000,672 |
| 2014 (1/1/14 - 9/23/14) | Fires: 40,328 | Acres: 3,029,369 |
| 2013 (1/1/13 - 9/23/13) | Fires: 38,571 | Acres: 4,011,662 |
| 2012 (1/1/12 - 9/23/12) | Fires: 47,338 | Acres: 8,658,440 |
| 2011 (1/1/11 - 9/23/11) | Fires: 59,048 | Acres: 7,679,998 |
| 2010 (1/1/10 - 9/23/10) | Fires: 48,657 | Acres: 2,746,946 |
| 10-year average Year-to-Date | ||
| 2010-2019 | Fires: 46,021 | Acres: 6,010,881 |
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