Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Natural Gas Trades Down 6%, Climateer Has No Mea Culpa

This is why, though I might want to quit, I can't.

Rather than the Latin for "My bad" I can offer up a guess, that the combination of the continuing cool weather across the northern tier of states and more importantly the continuing rise in WTI oil prices, reducing the incentive to shut-in or not complete oil wells, and thus continuing the oversupply of "associated" gas supply is still not balancing, much less reducing the glut.

Front futures down 6.35% (0.1160) at $1.710.

From FX Empire: 

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Steady as Six-to 15-Day Forecast Sees Above Average Temps
Prices could firm this week if more states begin to ease restrictions and lockdowns. We may not see much movement in the nearby futures contracts, but deferred futures contract traders will certainly react to signs of lower production.
 
Natural gas prices are slightly lower on Tuesday after yesterday’s small gain helped bring an end to a three-day losing streak. The focus remains on whether there will be an uptick in demand as the country opens up from restrictions and lockdowns. Traders are also hoping production cuts would start to impact price positively. With that in mind, the weather models are hinting at what could be a warmer-than-normal summer, according to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI)
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Short-Term Weather Outlook
NGI reports that after what is likely the last cold shot now exiting the eastern United States, warmer weather is set to emerge in the coming weeks, quickly dropping late-season heating degree days from outlooks, according to Bespoke Weather Services. The firm sees above-normal temperatures setting up as soon as the six- to 15-day timeframe, which it believes could be the pattern that sets up “more often than not” this summer.....MORE