From the Guardian, April 23:
Despite Egypt’s fears of ‘hydro hegemony’ and concerns it will worsen water shortages in Sudan, Ethiopia’s controversial dam project is close to fruition
From his office in central Khartoum, Ahmed al-Mufti prepares every day for what he believes is the water war to come.
This conviction led Mufti, a prominent human rights lawyer and water expert, to quit the Sudanese delegation that is negotiating Nile water issues with Egypt and Ethiopia.
He was angry at Ethiopia’s decision to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam (Gerd), a $4.5bn (£3.6bn) mega-project on the Blue Nile river that runs from Lake Tana in Ethiopia to meet the White Nile in Khartoum, flowing north into Egypt. The dam project will affect water levels downstream, depending on how fast Ethiopia fills its 74bn cubic metre reservoir.
“I believe in one, two, 10 … 100 years, this will cause instability in the region. These are the germs of instability, and it will cause a water war,” he says emphatically. “If not under this government then under another, as no population will see itself dying of thirst when they know that there is water very close by. This was my position when I quit, and every day since then I find more evidence that supports this.”
Ethiopia is due to begin filling the dam’s reservoir later this year, following a decade of fraught negotiations between the Nile Basin countries. In early April, Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, declared that construction would be completed despite the challenges of the pandemic, with the reservoir to be filled during the rainy season that starts in June. “Saving lives is our priority, while second to this we have the Gerd,” he told Ethiopians.
Sudan’s prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, proposed “joint management” of the dam, which will deplete Sudan’s water from the Blue Nile while potentially providing much-needed cheap electricity in future. Further downstream, however, Egypt has long seen the Gerd as an existential threat that could deprive its 100 million people of the water they need to survive in a changing climate. Some Egyptian officials have even discussed bombing the dam.
Ethiopia and Sudan say the dam’s hydropower is essential for their citizens to develop and thrive.
Mufti fingers prayer beads as he talks: “I believe that within one year of the filling of the dam’s reservoir, shortcomings will start to appear,” he says. “This dam is endangering rights – the right to life and the right to work.”.......MORE
Ethiopia's population is expected to exceed 200 million by 2049.
