Friday, September 6, 2019

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update

Although the storage report is the one that gets the algos and highly-caffeinated traders hopping around, even yesterday's close-to-expectations version (note the flurry of activity at the 10:30 am witching hour):


The weekly update has a lot more detail. 
2.4920 up 0.0560 last.

From the Energy Information Administration:
In the News:
Illinois power generation fuel mix changes with coal retirements and natural gas and renewable additions
Vistra Energy’s latest August 21 announcement to shut down four coal plants continues a decade-long trend of reduced coal use in Illinois’s power generation mix. Vistra Energy decided to retire four coal-fired power plants in Illinois to conform to the requirements of the Multi-Pollutant Standard (MPS) rule imposed by the Illinois Pollution Control Board (IPCB). The new amendments to the IPCB’s MPS rule, which was passed on June 20, require a reduction of at least 2,000 megawatts (MW) of electric generation by coal-fired plants under the jurisdiction of IPCB’s MPS region no later than December 31, 2019.

To comply with the MPS standards, Vistra Energy has filed shutdown notices with the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, the PJM Interconnection, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The four Illinois plants scheduled for shut down are
  • 151 MW Coffeen 2 plant, in Coffeen, to be retired by November 19, 2019
  • 329 MW Duck Creek 1 plant, in Canton, to be retired by December 22, 2019
  • 60 MW Hennepin 1, in Hennepin, to be retired by November 19, 2019
  • 200 MW Hennepin 2, in Hennepin, to be retired by November 19, 2019
These announced retirements, which continue the trend of declining coal capacity in the Illinois electric generation fleet, will increase the share of natural gas and renewables capacity. EIA power generation data indicate that coal generation in the state fell by 36% between 2010 and 2018. During the same period, generation by natural gas-fired plants more than tripled, from 5.7 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2010 to 17 GWh in 2018, while generation by renewable sources more than doubled to 12.6 GWh in 2018.

Between 2010 and 2018, a total of 3.7 gigawatts (GW) of nameplate coal capacity was retired. During the same period, a total of 12 GW of natural gas and 5 GW of renewable electric generation capacity was added in Illinois.

New renewable and natural gas power plants are being built in Illinois. Between 2019 and 2022, 18 new renewable plants, with a total nameplate capacity of 1.6 GW, and two new natural gas plants, with a total nameplate capacity of 1.3 GW, are slated to come online.

Overview:

(For the week ending Wednesday, September 4, 2019)

  • Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, August 28, to Wednesday, September 4). Henry Hub spot prices rose by 8% from $2.24 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.42/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the September 2019 Henry Hub natural gas contract expired last Wednesday at $2.251/MMBtu. The October 2019 contract increased to $2.445/MMBtu, up 22¢/MMBtu from last Wednesday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging October 2019 through September 2020 futures settlement prices climbed 10¢/MMBtu to $2.474/MMBtu.
  • Net injections to working gas totaled 84 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending August 30. Working natural gas stocks are 2,941 Bcf, which is 15% more than the year-ago level and 3% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average for this week.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 19¢/MMBtu, averaging $4.56/MMBtu for the week ending September 4. The price of natural gasoline rose by 1%, ethane by 12%, propane by 1%, butane by 5%, and isobutane by 6%.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, August 27, the natural gas rig count remained flat at 162. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 12 to 742. The total rig count decreased by 12, and it now stands at 904.

Prices/Supply/Demand:
Prices rise at most locations. This report week (Wednesday, August 28, to Wednesday, September 4), Henry Hub spot prices rose 18¢ from $2.24/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.42/MMBtu yesterday as the Gulf Coast experienced increasingly hot weather. At the Chicago Citygate, prices increased 15¢ from $2.03/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.18/MMBtu yesterday.....
....MUCH MORE

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Aug 29, 2019