Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Amazon's July 26 Earnings Report Is Make-or-Break For the Bull Market (AMZN)

It's a function of the cap weighting in the S&P 500.
Slope of Hope was the first analyst we've seen mention, albeit just in passing, how the market's uptrend could hit the wall.

First up:

Triple Long View
16, Jul 2018 5:54:15 AM
...Equities have not broken their nearly decade-long uptrend, and the cyan tinted area is what my recent “drum roll, please” anticipatory posts have been related to. A breakout above this would give the bull run yet another lease on life. At the immediate moment, the 2809.50 zone has been repelled again. It would take a LOT of bad news to break the uptrend (although I will say, out of thousands of companies, a single reversal on the part of a giant like AMZN based on earnings would go a long way toward that).

...MORE (oil and bonds, we agree with one take, disagree with the other)

And later that day, a bit more 'on the nose' as they say in Hollywood:

It Wasn’t Supposed to Be Like This
16, Jul 2018 2:45:07 PM
It is understandable why people would be long Netflix going into earnings. (You can press Ctrl-E in SlopeCharts to see all historical earnings events). After all, NFLX reliably vaults higher every time they announce. This trend continued until……….it didn’t. As I said earlier, give me this same result with Amazon in 10 days, and this goose is cooked.

Amazon reports after the close on the 26th  Via NASDAQ the last four reports were:

Quarter End
Per Share
EPS* Forecast
Mar2018 04/26/2018   3.27 1.22 168.03
Dec2017 02/01/2018   2.16 1.85 16.76
Sep2017 10/26/2017   0.52 0.01 5100
Jun2017 07/27/2017   0.4 1.4 -71.43

...According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 14 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $2.49. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.4.

Also via NASDAQ the dates for the other behemoths:

Company Expected Report Date
AAPL Jul 31, 2018
MSFT Jul 19, 2018
 FB           Jul 25, 2018