Sunday, September 3, 2017

Texas Governor Has An Estimated $150-180 Billion Range For Hurricane Harvey Damage

And we have a new #1 on the damage estimate leaderboard.

If the upper end of the range turns out to be correct Harvey would be the most expensive U.S. storm not just in nominal terms, which is pretty much a lock but in inflation adjusted* terms as well, surpassing the Great Miami Hurricane of September 18, 1926 which not only stopped the Florida real estate boom in its tracks but which, along with the agricultural recession of the 1920's, set the stage for the Great Depression.

Not to put too fine a point on it but....damn that sounds familiar.

From Reuters:
Texas governor says Harvey damage could climb to $180 billion
Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Sunday estimated damage from Hurricane Harvey at $150 billion to $180 billion, calling it more costly than epic hurricanes Katrina or Sandy and fueling a debate over how to pay for the disaster.

Harvey, which first came ashore on Aug. 25 as the most powerful hurricane to hit Texas in 50 years, has killed an estimated 47 people, displaced more than 1 million and damaged nearly 200,000 homes in a path of destruction stretching for more than 300 miles (480 kms).
For a graphic on Harvey's energy impact, click tmsnrt.rs/2xzso1S
For a graphic on hurricane costs, click tmsnrt.rs/2vGkbHS
For a graphic on storms in the North Atlantic, click tmsnrt.rs/2gcckz5
Abbott, who is advocating for U.S. government aid for his state’s recovery, said the damage would exceed that of Katrina, the storm that devastated New Orleans and surrounding areas in 2005, and Sandy, which overwhelmed New York city and the U.S. Northeast in 2012. 

“Katrina caused if I recall more than $120 billion but when you look at the number of homes and business affected by this I think this will cost well over $120 billion, probably $150 to $180 billion,” Abbott told Fox News, adding, “this is far larger than Hurricane Sandy.”...MORE
The previous high estimates were:
Sept. 1 
Moody's Analytics Is Estimating Hurricane Harvey Losses at $108 Billion
Aug. 30
AccuWeather Now Has the Highest Hurricane Harvey Damage Estimate We've Seen: $160 Billion

*Actually it's not just inflation adjusted but "normalized". The Great Miami was at $180,220,000,000 in 2012 when last we looked.

Here's Pielke, Landsea et al, via NOAA: "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005"
And Judith Curry's critique.

And Karen A. Clark & Company's 2012 list of insured losses which put the Great Miami at $125 billion, still on top and far and away higher than the insured losses from Harvey will be:

1926 Unnamed 7 (Great Miami) Florida, South $125
1928 Unnamed 04 (Lake Okeechobee) Florida, South $65
1900 Galveston Texas 50 1947 Unnamed 04 (Fort Lauderdale) Florida, South $50
1992 Andrew Florida South $50
1915 Unnamed 02 (Galveston) Texas $40
2005 Katrina Gulf $40
1938 Unnamed 04 (Great New England) Northeast $35
1960 Donna Florida, Northeast $25
1954 Hazel Southeast $20

For comparison purposes here are a couple of our earthquake posts:

Magnitude 7.3 Tokyo earthquake could cost $3 trillion in economic losses 
Note that's 3 Trillion dollars not ¥3 Trillion.

New Potential Damage Estimate For A San Andreas Megaquake: $289 Billion Just For Residential

The Cali estimate is for a full rupture at magnitude 8.3, 10 times more energy than the Tokyo forecast but considerably less dollar value.

And one more big number:
El Niño: "The ARkStorm Scenario Could Flood California's Central Valley Like a Bathtub and Cost $725 Billion"