Swiss Re: "Hurricane Andrew: The 20 miles that saved Miami" (A hurricane Andrew II damage estimate at $300 billion)

I was asked where the $300 billion damage estimate* for a direct hit by hurricane Irma on Miami came from. This is one of the published sources, in casual conversation I've heard $350 billion with an $80 billion potential whack to the re/insurers if, after Miami, the storm continues up the Florida east coast.
Real money.

From Swiss Re:

If Andrew were to barrel through South Florida in 2017, taking an identical track and at the same intensity, the insured losses alone would increase to between USD 50bn and USD 60bn, due to a combination of increased development and asset values.

...As hurricane/reinsurance professionals, an even scarier hypothetical lingers in our minds: What if Andrew made landfall about 20 miles north of its historical landfall location in Fender Point, Fla.? This would place Andrew’s eye directly over Miami, an area far more populated, developed and commercialized compared to Homestead, yet arguably no less vulnerable or prone to hurricanes. A landfall location 20 miles north is not merely hypothetical; Miami has experienced direct hits from hurricanes in the past.

One benefit of catastrophe models is the ability to model the financial impact of hurricanes that have not necessarily occurred in the historical record, but are physically possible. From our catalog of probabilistic tropical cyclone tracks, we selected six probabilistic tracks that are of comparable intensity and size to Andrew; the only significant difference is that these probabilistic tropical cyclones make landfall further north than Andrew, in the city of Miami. The six probabilistic tracks are shown in the figure below (red lines).

The calculated model losses to the insurance industry are of a magnitude not yet observed; they range from USD 60bn to USD 180bn. Assuming again a 60% insurance-industry coverage rate, the economic damage from these storms would range from USD 100bn to USD 300bn. By way of comparison, if the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane, a Category 4 hurricane that struck Miami and Miami Beach, recurred today under current conditions, it would produce losses right in the middle of the range: USD 122bn in insured losses and an estimated USD 200bn in economic losses. Both the 1926 Miami Hurricane and Andrew approached South Florida from the east, so we therefore analyzed those historical scenarios and probabilistic storms. But it is important to remember that hurricanes can approach South Florida from almost innumerable directions, and bring along devastating wind, storm surge and rain....MUCH MORE (8 page PDF)

*September 3's "Hurricane Irma Now Has Max Winds of 180 mph":

...The islands are in mortal peril and while a direct hit on Miami (despite this cone of uncertainty heading south and west into the Keys) at category 5 would probably not be as lethal, the damage estimates are in the $300 billion+ range.

Oh, and just for something to think about, the front right quadrant of 'canes are where the wind speeds are highest. 

If interested see also:
January 28, 2016
"Is the re/insurance industry really prepared for a large tail event?"

No.
The plan is to lay any claims over about $50 billion on taxpayers.
That's insured losses not total losses.

May 2016
Risk: "Are insurers prepared for Hurricane Andrew II?"
Dec. 2012 
What was the Most Expensive Hurricane Ever to Hit the United States?

For other big number exposures:
Sept 3 
Texas Governor Has An Estimated $150-180 Billion Range For Hurricane Harvey Damage

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