Friday, May 26, 2017

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Prices have been grinding higher since 2016 and, if LNG shipments to Asia pick up as some have forecast, should continue higher. Partially offsetting demand is increased supply of associated gas from oil drillers but, and that's a big but, depending on this year's weather the trend seems set on a yearly basis.

One thing to watch in 2018 and beyond is how fast China and Japan develop their clathrate technology.
Anyhoo, 3.2880 up 1.3 cents.

From the Energy Information Administration:

Prices fall. This report week (Wednesday, May 17 to Wednesday, May 24), the Henry Hub spot price fell 5¢ from $3.16/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.11/MMBtu yesterday. Despite a price fall week over week, prices are substantially higher than last year at this time. Yesterday's Henry Hub price, for example, was 63% higher than a year ago, when it stood at $1.91/MMBtu. Last year's prices were historically low largely because of downward pressure from record high storage stocks following an unusually warm winter.

At the Chicago Citygate, prices decreased 2¢ to $3.03/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at PG&E Citygate in Northern California gained 3¢ to $3.38/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate rose 8¢ to $3.25/MMBtu yesterday.

Algonquin price falls significantly. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices went down $1.22 from $4.17/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.95/MMBtu yesterday. Prices were elevated last Wednesday with hot weather pushing up power demand and with a capacity reduction at Algonquin's Burrillville Compressor Station in Rhode Island, which may last for about two weeks.

At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices decreased 28¢ from $3.18/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.90/MMBtu yesterday.

Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices decreased 15¢ to $2.53/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at Dominion South in northwest Pennsylvania fell 11¢ to $2.66/MMBtu yesterday.

June Nymex increases slightly. At the Nymex, the price of the June 2017 contract increased 2¢, from $3.192/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.209/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip, which averages June 2017 through May 2018 futures contracts, climbed 1¢ to $3.323/MMBtu.

Supply remains flat. According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as the previous report week, averaging 76.6 Bcf/d. Dry natural gas production remained constant week over week. Net imports from Canada remained the same as last week, averaging 5.7 Bcf/d.

Demand remains flat. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas was unchanged from last week, averaging 56.5 Bcf/d according to data from PointLogic. An increase in power burn was offset by a decrease in residential/commercial sector consumption. Power burn climbed by 5% week over week. Industrial sector consumption stayed constant, averaging 20.0 Bcf/d. In the residential/commercial sector, consumption declined by 11%. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 1%....