Saturday, January 4, 2014

"George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, Has Died"

Lifted in toto from Economic Policy Journal:
NYT reports that he died from complications of leukemia at the age of 83.

His first book written under the pseudonym Adam Smith was “The Money Game,” published in the spring of 1968, became an immediate best seller. The book told tales about Wall Street's "Go-Go" years.

According to NYT:
Mr. Goodman did not choose the pseudonym Adam Smith, after the 18th-century philosopher who shaped the discipline of economics with his concept of an “invisible hand” that governed markets. Rather, it was given to him as a young journalist for New York magazine in the 1960s, to hide his identity from sensitive Wall Street sources.

He hated the name at first and tried to change it, but he could not find out who had bestowed it, although many sources said it was Clay Felker, New York magazine’s founding editor.

“Of course, after my books became successful, three people owned up,” Mr. Goodman said in an interview with The New York Times in 1981.
Goodman followed up "The Money Game," with "Supermoney," in 1972. In that book, among other stories,Goodman introduced Warren Buffett to the general public.

He wrote in that book that Benjamin Graham wanted Goodman to help him come out with a new edition of "The Intelligent Investor":
"There are really only two people I would want to work on this," Graham said. ""You're one, ad the other is Warren Buffett.

"Who's Warren Buffett?" I asked.
  In “Paper Money,” he is the one who made the joke that hinted at the problems with bad modeling in mainstream economics: Stuck without tools on a desert island, an economist theorizes, “Assume a can opener.”
We've used Smith as an exemplar of what amazing creations can come from the combination of a gimlet-eyed view of finance and first rate writing. From 2011's "Short 'em All. They Aren't Worth the Paper They're Printed On":
 “…For, after all, I had been into cocoa a bit myself. That was back when The Great Winfield had discovered cocoa trading. Occasionally in those more leisured days I would sit with him lazily watching stocks move, like two sheriffs in a rowboat watching catfish in the Tennessee River….”
-'Adam Smith', Supermoney

And from 2012's "Adam Smith on Oil Shale (Now with Voodoo Beach Bunnies)":

...There's an interesting dichotomy developing in the markets, one that we've seen before.
The old pros are cautious, befuddled and a bit scared. Folks with less than a decade at the market are making money.

Adam Smith noted it in the 'sixties bull market (The Money Game via Contravest, January 22, 2000):
There is one wonderful chapter where the consummate pragmatic speculator, the Great Winfield, is lamenting his performance problems in a wildly speculative bull market.
“My boy,” said the Great Winfield over the phone. “Our trouble is that we are too old for this market. The best players in this kind of a market have not passed their twenty-ninth birthdays. Come on over and I will show you my solution.”
So Adam Smith goes over and finds three new faces in the Great Winfield’s office. 
My solution to the current market,” the Great Winfield said. “Kids. This is a kids’ market. This is Billy the Kid, Johnny the Kid, and Sheldon the Kid.” The three Kids stood up without taking their eyes from the moving tape, shook hands, and called me “sir” respectfully.
“Aren’t they cute?” the Great Winfield asked. “Aren’t they fuzzy? Look at them, like teddy bears. It’s their market. I have taken them on for the duration.”
Winfield then describes how much money Billy the Kid is making in computer leasing stocks like Leasco Data Processing and Randolph Computer that he has heavily leveraged with bank borrowing....
And the really spooky bit, for me anyway, SHALE:
...Sheldon the Kid waved his hand for recognition.

“This one will really take you back,” said the Great Winfield. “Sheldon’s Western Oil Shale has gone from three to thirty.”


“Sir!” said Sheldon. “The Western United States is sitting on a pool of oil five times as big as all the known reserves in the world – shale oil. Technology is coming along fast. When it comes, Equity Oil can earn seven hundred and fifty dollars a share.


It’s selling at twenty-four dollars. The first commercial underground nuclear test is coming up. The possibilities are so big no one can comprehend them.”


“Shale oil! Shale oil!” said the Great Winfield. “Takes you way back, doesn’t it. I bet you can barely remember it.”


“The shale oil play,” I said dreaming. “My old MG TC. A blond girl, tan from the summer sun, in the Hamptons, beer on the beach, ‘Unchained Melody,’ the little bar in the Village.”


“See? See?” said the Great Winfield. “The flow of the seasons. Life begins again. It’s marvelous. It’s like having a son! My boys! My Kids!”


The Great Winfield had made his point. Memory can get in the way of such a jolly market, that malaise that comes with the instantly gone, flickering feeling of déjà vu. We have all been here before.

“The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money they feel invincible,” said the Great Winfield.


“Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes us. All of these kids but one will be broke, and that one will be the multi-millionaire, the Arthur Rock of the new generation. There is always one, and maybe we will find him.”
...MORE
Here are the Voodoo Beach Bunnies: