From The Economist:
From anti-austerity movements to middle-class revolts, in
rich countries and in poor, social unrest has been on the rise around
the world. The reasons for the protests vary. Some are direct responses
to economic distress (in Greece and Spain, for example). Others are
revolts against dictatorship (especially in the Middle East). A number
also express the aspirations of new middle classes in fast-growing
emerging markets (whether in Turkey or Brazil). But they share some
underlying features.
The common backdrop is the 2008-09 financial crisis and its
aftermath. Economic distress is almost a necessary condition for serious
social or political instability, but it is not a sufficient one.
Declines in income and high unemployment are not always followed by
unrest. Only when economic trouble is accompanied by other elements of
vulnerability is there a high risk of instability. Such factors include
wide income-inequality, poor government, low levels of social provision,
ethnic tensions and a history of unrest. Of particular importance in
sparking unrest in recent times appears to have been an erosion of trust
in governments and institutions: a crisis of democracy.
Trust has been in secular decline
throughout the rich world since the 1970s. This trend accelerated and
spread after the collapse of communism in 1989. And as opinion polls
have documented, it has sped up again since the 2008–09 financial
crisis.
65 countries will be at a high or very high risk
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a sister company of The Economist,
measures the risk of social unrest in 150 countries around the world.
It places a heavy emphasis on institutional and political weaknesses.
And recent developments have indeed revealed a deep sense of popular
dissatisfaction with political elites and institutions in many emerging
markets.
The protesters in Turkey in 2013, for example, were
dissatisfied with some abrupt decisions by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s
government. In Bulgaria, what started off as protests against higher
electricity bills turned into generalised anti-government demonstrations
complaining of corruption—and led to the fall of the government.
Protests have continued.
What to expect in 2014? The recession is now over or has
eased in much of the world. Yet political reactions to economic distress
have historically come with a lag. Austerity is still on the agenda in
2014 in many countries and this will fuel social unrest....MORE
