Vice Index Predicts a Sober Holiday Season
Looks like it’s not going to be such a hot holiday season for liquor companies, casinos, and prostitutes – at least according to the latest reading of the “Vice Index.”
The index – a concoction from SouthBay Research’s Andrew Zatlin measures actual spending levels – yes, on vices – and uses the numbers to show where the economy is headed. As opposed to Tuesday’s chipper report on the services sector from the ISM, the vice index’s September sounding came in at 104, its lowest level since February’s 96.
That means, Mr. Zatlin said, that not only will spending drop from levels earlier this year, but it’s going to stay that way into the first-quarter. The index, he says, is highly correlated to official readings on consumer spending, with one caveat – the vice index predicts consumer spending four months out....MORE
