Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Iran: "Chi mikhad beshe?”

Years ago I was talking to one of the Trans-Am driving, gold-chain wearing, thank you daddy Iranian college students and asked him if the country's name was pronounced "Eye-ran" or "Ear-ron".
He said, "It's pronounced Persia".

From FT Alphaville:
The rial-ity of Persia-stroika
Hyperinflation or not. Immediate collapse of the regime or not. This situation is scary if what is coming out of Iran is accurate.
This is from the FT’s Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Iran:
Chi mikhad beshe?” – what is going to happen? – is the most common question Iranians ask each other. It is asked in taxis, grocery stores, hairdressers and in the queues to buy bread. No one, however, seems to know the answer.
This is the point. There may be a two-tier market in place and goods may be subsidised so there is little chance of starvation so long as counterparties can be found and reserves (almost certainly still significant although the levels are unreported and it is unclear what has been locked up abroad by sanctions) hold up but there is still an increasing level confusion and fear:
At first glance, parts of Iran still feel prosperous, despite breathtaking inflation. In the shops and at the markets, there is no shortage of basic commodities, from rice to grains to meat.
How long this will last, though, is another matter entirely. The collapse of the rial against the US dollar is worrying virtually every sector of society. Even those Iranians unlikely ever to have left the country and handled a greenback follow the free fall of the rial because of its impact on the prices of basic goods. Rich and poor are united in the belief that they have lost two-thirds of the value of their assets, savings, properties or purchasing power over the past year.
Not good. But it doesn’t mean the regime will collapse any time soon — there is still food on plates and cutting back on luxuries is not Mad Max territory....MUCH MORE