Could the 2012 campaign end in a tie? Is it possible for Mitt Romney to end up as president — with Joe Biden as his vice president? Could the presidential election end up decided by the U.S. Supreme Court, again?
The short answer is: probably not. To call those outcomes improbable would be a huge understatement. The strong likelihood is that one candidate will win both the Electoral College and the popular vote on Nov. 6 and bring our long 2012 slog to an end.
But hey, it’s the end of October in a presidential election year — a hurricane is improbably threatening the Eastern seaboard — so it’s the time when a politico’s mind turns to the wild and crazy outcomes that could upend all expectations. And public polls still show a close enough race between Romney and Barack Obama that speculation is inevitable.Here’s POLITICO’s guide to the freak outcomes that could send us reeling on election night:
A popular vote-Electoral College split
Of all the quirky results, this one is probably the most plausible. There’s a pretty straightforward set of events that leads to the popular vote and the Electoral College breaking in different directions — almost certainly to the benefit of President Barack Obama.
According to the best guesswork of strategists and pollsters on both sides, the scenario unfolds like this: Romney runs up huge vote margins in the South, Obama wins big blue states like New York and California by reduced margins, the swing states all end up very close, but Obama holds on to Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada and blocks Romney from winning 270 electoral votes. In that scenario, Romney could take the popular vote by running up the score in heavily Republican states, while Obama amasses the electoral votes he needs for victory by eking out swing-state wins.
For Democrats, there might be a certain karmic justice in that result — payback for the 2000 election that saw Al Gore go down to defeat in the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.
Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen laid out the math like so: “Romney wins the popular vote with an 8-point swing from 2008. But an 8-point swing from 2008 would still leave Obama as the winner in key swing states like Colorado, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.”...MOREFrom the Los Angeles Times:
A Romney-Biden White House? It could happen
What happens if there's an electoral college tie of 269 votes apiece? The House elects the president and the Senate elects the veep. And what if there's a tie there? Can you say President Boehner?
"Congress to pick the president." — headline, Nov. 7, 2012.
Sound ridiculous? Daft? Not at all.
The magic number is 270 — electoral college votes that is — to win the big prize. According to 270towin.com, there are now 11 "battleground" states and, statistically, 32 permutations from these up-for-grab states that could produce a 269-vote electoral college tie in the presidential election.
Based on the site's simulated polls, the mathematical probability of a tie increased almost fourfold in recent weeks — from 0.3% to 1.1%. And both political camps concede the race is tightening each day. Is there more gridlock ahead? It's a small but scary possibility.
So what if one of these 32 combos comes to pass? No, unlike Gore vs. Bush in 2000, the issue doesn't go to the Supreme Court for resolution, at least not right away. It turns out the Constitution has a nifty, two-step solution.
First, the 435 House members convene to elect the president. But only 50 votes are cast, one per state, so the delegates from each state first vote to determine how their state will cast its one vote. The current House GOP majority (240 to 190) has Romney likely getting the nod. But that could quickly change because it's the newly elected House that casts the critical vote.
Next, the 100 senators convene to elect the vice president. The current Senate makeup favors the Democrats 51 to 47, with two independents, so Joe Biden would keep his No. 2 gig. Again, that razor-thin margin could move on election day.
And if there's a tie vote in either the Senate or House? We'll get to that.
Instinctively, a 269-vote tie would be an urgent call to action to amend the Constitution to scrap the archaic procedure and stipulate that a simple majority of the total popular vote takes the prize. Surely we'll never get a tie with 132 million or so votes being cast.
But there are a few more bumps on this presidential road.
Could electors cast their vote for someone other than the popular vote winner in their state? Twenty-six states have feckless laws prohibiting that, and in most states, it doesn't usually happen. Yet there are always the "faithless" electors — those who flip their vote. It has happened 156 times in our history, though about half of those were votes involving candidates who died between the election and the electoral college vote. But 82 votes did involve a change of allegiance. And it has been reported that three GOP electors who support libertarian Ron Paul are making noise about refusing to vote for Mitt Romney. Remember, it may take only one switcheroo.
Let's assume the college affirms the 269-tie vote so the gridlocked issue moves to Congress. In the House, what happens if the states deadlock at 25-25? The vice president takes charge as acting president until the House breaks the stalemate. But wait, that's true only if the veep "qualifies," which Biden wouldn't until the Senate elects him. So the House speaker — currently John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) — would serve as acting president. But wait again. Boehner is required to resign as both speaker and House member to serve in his new role, something he may not fancy. If Boehner declines to serve, the acting president gig defaults to none other than the venerable Sen. Daniel K. Inouye (D-Hawaii), the 88-year-old Senate president pro tempore....MORE
