Friday, January 17, 2025

It's Ben Franklin's Birthday, Partaay!

Of course there's the whole September 1752 calendar switcheroo thing but January 17 is the date we use.

A repost from January 17, 2016 (New Style).

January 17, 1706-April 17, 1790
 
If you would not be forgotten,
When you are dead and rotten,
Either write things worth the reading,
Or do things worth the writing.

~ Benjamin Franklin (Poor Richard's Almanack, May, 1738)
 
Here's a Threefer from Mental Floss:
10 of Ben Franklin’s Lesser-Known Feats of Awesomeness

...6. Ben invented so much cool stuff.

Of course, you probably know that he is responsible for the lightning rod, bifocal glasses and the Franklin stove. But in 1761, Franklin also invented the glass harmonica (or "armonica," as Ben called it). It became quite popular during Franklin’s time and armonica-specific pieces were composed by the likes of Mozart, Beethoven, and Handel.
More of Franklin’s inventions include:
• The library stepstool, a chair whose seat could be lifted and folded down to make a short ladder.
• A mechanical arm for reaching books on high shelves. (Book retrieval – clearly a focus of Franklinian innovation)
• The rocking chair – a chair that rocks.
• The writing chair - a chair with an arm on one side to provide a writing surface. (Activities one can do while seated – also a focus.)
• The odometer - used in Franklin’s time to measure distance along colonial roads used by the postal service.
• A pulley system that enabled him to lock and unlock his bedroom door from his bed.
• The flexible urinary catheter....
...nine MORE

And from "11 Amazing Things You Probably Didn’t Know About Benjamin Franklin":

...10. He Could Really Talk About Drinking

On January 6, 1737, Franklin’s Pennsylvania Gazette published 200+ synonyms for the word “drunk” in what was entitled “The Drinkers Dictionary.” The handy list came accompanied by a note from Franklin himself: “The Phrases in this Dictionary are not (like most of our Terms of Art) borrow'd from Foreign Languages, neither are they collected from the Writings of the Learned in our own, but gather'd wholly from the modern Tavern-Conversation of Tiplers. I do not doubt but that there are many more in use; and I was even tempted to add a new one my self under the Letter B, to wit, Brutify'd…” 

And finally, Ben Franklin's 200+ Synonyms for "Drunk":
First, a note from Mr. Franklin: "The Phrases in this Dictionary are not (like most of our Terms of Art) borrow'd from Foreign Languages, neither are they collected from the Writings of the Learned in our own, but gather'd wholly from the modern Tavern-Conversation of Tiplers. I do not doubt but that there are many more in use; and I was even tempted to add a new one my self under the Letter B, to wit, Brutify'd: But upon Consideration, I fear'd being guilty of Injustice to the Brute Creation, if I represented Drunkenness as a beastly Vice, since, 'tis well-known, that the Brutes are in general a very sober sort of People."
A
He is Addled,
He's casting up his Accounts,
He's Afflicted,
He's in his Airs.
B
He's Biggy,
Bewitch'd,
Block and Block,
Boozy,
Bowz'd,
Been at Barbadoes,
Piss'd in the Brook,
Drunk as a Wheel-Barrow,
Burdock'd,
Buskey,
Buzzey,
and 185 more

"Alaska Looking to Re-Enter Global LNG Market with Massive $44bn Project"

From High North News, January 14:

The proposed Alaska LNG project has taken its next hurdle with the signing of a development agreement. The $44bn project would see Alaska export up to 20m tonnes of LNG per year starting in 2031.

New York-based energy firm Glenfarne and the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation have agreed on a deal to develop the Alaska LNG project. More than a decade in the making the agreement is a key step to move the project towards realization.

Just last year the project seemed to have hit the end of the road when its board recommended shuttering the operation.

Alaska LNG looks to develop gas resources on the state’s north slope, transport them via an 800-mile (1,300 km) pipeline to a yet-to-be-built liquefaction plant in Nikiski on the Kenai Peninsula, and export the super-chilled gas via tankers to markets in Asia.

The Biden Administration greenlit the project in 2023

Alternative proposals had also envisioned a liquefaction plant in Alaska’s north to transport the LNG on ice-breaking LNG tankers similar to Russia’s approach at Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2.

Alaska LNG would begin piping natural gas and liquefying it in 2031

By piping the gas to the ice-free waters of southern Alaska the project can rely on conventional LNG carriers, rather than the more expensive and complex ice-capable variety....

....MUCH MORE

"Elon Musk Denies Tesla's Involvement In Fire At Moss Landing Power Plant In Monterey County" (TSLA)

From Benzinga, January 16:

Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk on Friday denied the involvement of the company’s Megapack energy storage product in the fire that broke out at a 750 MW Moss Landing battery storage facility on Thursday.

What Happened: “This fire has nothing to do with Tesla and our Megapacks are operating well,” Musk said in a post on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, while adding that media reports alleging otherwise are “false.”

....MUCH MORE

We have had only a couple mentions of the Moss Landing site, here's one from 2022:
"The $2.5 trillion reason we can’t rely on batteries to clean up the grid"

"Why Europe fears free speech: A war of repression is under way"—Wolfgang Munchau

European politicians and their Eurocrat masters/minions (its complicated) seem to think they are rulers rather than employees.

From UnHerd, January 13:

We all know the old joke: when a European referendum delivers the “wrong” outcome, the country votes again until they get it “right”. The EU thought this would be the case after Brexit. But so far, no one’s laughing.

If anything, things have got worse. Take Romania, which recently cancelled its presidential election when Călin Georgescu, leader of a nationalist Right coalition, won the first round. Thierry Breton, former French European Commissioner, revealed the EU’s mindset during a damning recent TV interview. “We did it in Romania and we will obviously do it in Germany if necessary,” he said. In other words, if you can’t beat the far-Right, ban them.

I disagree with almost everything Breton has ever said, but I am grateful to him for stating his case with such revealing clarity. During his time as industry commissioner in Brussels, from 2019 until last summer, when Emmanuel Macron replaced him with a more compliant figure, he was the driving force behind a series of laws designed to keep Europe in the digital dark ages. The most extreme of which is the Digital Services Act (DSA) which compels “very large online platforms”, such as X and Meta, to check facts and filter out fake news.

“In the pecking order of democratic rights, freedom of speech has a relatively low priority in Europe.”

But, thanks to Breton, the truth is out there. Europe’s ultimate aim isn’t to save public discourse, it is to suffocate far-Right parties by depriving them of the oxygen of information. The DSA isn’t even the last word in the EU’s anti-digital jihad. One of Ursula von der Leyen’s big ideas last year during the European election was the so-called “democracy shield” — effectively launching even more legislation to prevent outside interference in EU affairs. This notion conjures up images of laser beams and light-sabre fights. And in some respects it’s not far from the truth: a frightened bloc needs a shield to protect itself from the encroaching enemy.

Mark Zuckerberg is certainly on the attack. Last week he announced that he is abandoning fact-checking on his platforms — effectively defying the DSA. And he is betting on Donald Trump to protect him from the legal consequences. Given that J.D. Vance, the Vice President-elect, has already threatened to end US support for Nato if Europe tries to censor Elon Musk’s X, surely the same will apply to Facebook. And the EU is far too dependent on the US to be able to mount an effective campaign against any of America’s social media platforms once Trump is president. The DSA, hastily drawn up during the pandemic, not only misjudges the nature of the social media, it misjudges political power. It exposes Europe’s essential weakness before America.

This isn’t just a geopolitical battle, though. It is also a European one. The attempted clampdown reveals that there is something the bloc fears more than free speech: populism. MEPs found it hard enough to stomach Nigel Farage’s brutal outbursts when he was a member of the European Parliament. Now they have Musk breathing down their neck, endorsing candidates from the AfD, a party that sits on the far-Right in the European Parliament’s benches and which supports German withdrawal from the EU.

The German media had a collective breakdown when Musk tweeted an endorsement for the AfD, interviewed Alice Weidel, the party’s co-leader, on X, and then endorsed her in an article for Die Welt. The op-ed editor of the German daily resigned in protest. And an article in another newspaper hysterically described Musk’s intervention as unconstitutional. That journalists would advocate censorship seems shocking, until one understands the role of journalism in continental European society. It operates firmly inside a narrow centrist political consensus, which spans all the parties from the centre-left to the centre-right. Naturally, the AfD does not get much airtime in the German media....

....MUCH MORE

While I might disagree with Munchau on some of his specific conclusions, the broad outline seems almost too kind. For example, what he describes as centrists in that last paragraph could also be called control freaks desperately grasping any lever they think might help keep them in power. But maybe that's just me.

We happened to catch Breton's word's on January 10:

Democracy, European Style—"Ex-Commissioner Breton: ‘What Was Done in Romania May Be Needed in Germany’"... (it's a gas, gas, gas)

And though we didn't link, it did bring to mind a prior post:

January 23, 2008
Climate goals to cost European euro 3 a week
This is, of course, light by an order of magnitude but the EU rulers (alas, they think of themselves as rulers, not servants of the people) are masters of the "Camel's nose under the tent" school of government. They know that if they told the populace the truth they might be treated rougher than Louis XVI was.

When MEP's dream, are they Capetian or Carolingian?
Capetian, methinks.

I've always liked the Carolingians better,
they seemed more human-

Charles II, the Bald
Louis II, the Stammerer
Charles, the Fat
Charles III, the Simple
Along the lines of the Brit's Aethelred II, the Unready
(my fav. royal nickname)

Anyhoo, from the Economic Times (India)....
Seventeen years later the German hausfraus (and the German economy) are indeed paying more than three euros per week for the privilege of living under their wannabe royals and their rules. And of course after the "costs so low you won't even notice" pitch we saw, three months later: "European Politicians Think They are Rulers; Need Energy Wasting Palace".
Possibly also of interest:
Always, Always Remember That Control Freaks Are Mentally Ill

"Nankai Trough megaquake probability raised to 80% after M6.8 Kyushu earthquake, Japan"

From The Watchers, January 16:

Japan has increased the estimated probability of a magnitude 8 and 9 megaquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years to around 80% on January 16, 2025, after an M6.8 earthquake hit near the coast of Kyushu. The probability was previously estimated at 70 to 80%.

https://watchers.news/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Earthquakes-in-Japan-1.webp

Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), a Japanese government earthquake research panel, has increased the estimated probability of a magnitude 8 and 9 megaquakes occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years to around 80% after an M6.8 earthquake hit near the coast of Kyushu on January 13....

....MUCH MORE 

Meanwhile, off the U.S. west coast: "When The Megaquake Hits, The Living Will Envy The Dead"

"China’s population falls by almost 1.4 million, a third consecutive year of decline"

From the Associated Press via Canada's Globe and Mail, January 16:

A growing number of countries are confronting the dual challenges of population decline and aging, as younger generations opt to have fewer children and advances in health care extend life expectancy.

China said Friday that its population fell for the third straight year in 2024, falling by almost 1.4 million to 1.408 billion. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s population has been falling for 15 years, while South Korea’s growth turned negative in 2021. In Italy, the number of births has fallen below 400,000 for the first time since the 19th century.

The population has peaked in 63 countries and territories, about half in Europe, the United Nations says. The UN projects another 48 will hit their peak over the next 30 years.

Globally, the population of 8.2 billion people is still growing, with the UN projecting it will reach 10.3 billion in roughly 60 years and then start to decline.

For many countries with shrinking populations, the slow-moving but hard-to-reverse trend has prompted governments to offer financial incentives to try to encourage people to have children to help support growing numbers of elders.

The Japanese government’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, called the demographic situation critical last year, saying that the next six years will be “the last chance for us to possibly reverse the trend.”

The population of Japan peaked in 2008 at 128 million people and has fallen to 125 million since then. The number of births hit a record low of 730,000 in 2023.

Surveys show that younger Japanese are increasingly reluctant to marry or have children, discouraged by bleak job prospects, a cost of living that is rising at a faster pace than salaries and a corporate culture difficult for women and working mothers.

Japan’s population is projected to fall to 87 million people by 2070, when four out of every 10 people will be 65 years of age or older.

One segment of the population is still growing: an 11 per cent increase in foreign residents helped push their population above 3 million for the first time in 2023, making up nearly 3 per cent of the total.

China is growing older, a trend that could sap economic growth and challenge the government’s capacity to provide for a larger elderly population with fewer workers.

Some see opportunity. An “elderly university’ in Beijing, the Chinese capital, has enrolled 150 students in dance, singing, yoga and modelling classes. The business has yet to break even but founder Liu Xiuqin believes in the market’s future, given the value that retirees born in the 1960s place on quality of life and health compared to earlier generations.

The government is raising the retirement age over the next 15 years to 63 from 60 years old for men; to 55 from 50 for women in factory and other blue-collar jobs and to 58 from 55 for women in white-collar work.

China ceded its position as the most populated country to India in 2023, after the population began to fall in 2022. Women are having fewer babies despite the easing of China’s one-child policy to allow up to three children.

The population of 1.4 billion people – still more than 10 times that of Japan – is projected to fall to 1.3 billion by 2050....

....MUCH MORE 

That projection is probably optimistic and from 2050 to 2100 the decline in the numbers approaches the incomprehensible. Literally. From July 1, 2024:

How Serious Is China's Demographic Doom? Almost Beyond Comprehension

"Small Polish town offers Elon Musk medieval castle as a HQ"

Although a nice looking castle, and exhibiting profound insight into the minds of financial titans/robber barons (see Carnegie's Skibo or Otto Kahn's Oheka) on the part of the townspeople, the offer is probably a couple orders of magnitude smaller than what would be required to get the Elonverse to set up the European shop in Głogówek.

From TVP World, January 13:

 https://s8.tvp.pl/images2/8/0/e/uid_80e1882ef774410a9b2c9ebb23487ca8_width_1143_play_0_pos_0_gs_0_height_0.jpg

A small town in southwestern Poland has offered Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, a medieval castle as a potential site for the tech billionaire’s European HQ.

Musk, the owner of Tesla and SpaceX, is reportedly seeking a European operations base, with Poland and Italy emerging as potential locations.

According to Italian media, including the regional daily Il Tirreno, the billionaire has shown interest in historic properties in Tuscany. During a visit in November 2024, Musk reportedly toured sites such as Bibbiano Castle near Siena and Montepò Castle near Scansano....

....MUCH MORE

"Volkswagen CFO delivers broadside to unproductive workers as China emerges as a potential buyer of factories"

Mutti and her ministers should probably have to face a tribunal to answer for what they did.

From Fortune, January 16:

Not long after agreeing a monumental labor deal that will see thousands of job reductions in the coming years, Volkswagen’s head of finance is warning remaining workers that the company will be watching their productivity very closely. 

The $348 billion German carmaking giant is in the midst of a major cost-cutting drive designed to increase competitiveness, with a crucial labor agreement struck with its work council in December regarded as a crucial first step toward those ambitions.

Volkswagen agreed a monumental deal with the powerful IG Metall union in December, which prevented the closure of German factories while reducing production capacity in those factories. The company also walked back plans for compulsory redundancies and a proposed 10% pay cut.  

The carmaker is now readying itself for a fresh battle with employees under these new rules of engagement, this time on the productivity front.

Volkswagen’s CFO, Arno Antlitz, told investors in New York that the carmaker was now focused on increasing the number of cars each worker produced as a key measure of productivity, Reuters reported.

Targeting productivity improvements followed two other targets Antlitz says the carmaker achieved in its December labor agreement: the reduction of high labor costs and removal of capacity underutilization.  

Antlitz held the carrot of extra investment over the automaker’s employees, threatening to turn off the taps in places where workers weren’t upping their output.

“We will only invest in competitive plants. Germany cannot be an exception,” Antlitz reportedly said.

A representative for Volkswagen didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Volkswagen’s factories
Volkswagen’s extensive negotiations with unions, which went through five rounds before coming to a conclusion, resulted in a plan for 35,000 future job reductions that would focus on early retirement above compulsory redundancies.

The other key measure was the repurposing and reduction in output of Volkswagen’s factories in place of all-out closures and associated job cuts. 

The group said it would half the number of assembly lines at its Wolfsburg headquarters from four to two to account for falling demand for its cars. Production at its Dresden facility is set to end by 2025.

Volkswagen said it was exploring options to repurpose its Osnabrueck site, including finding a potential buyer. One reportedly interested party is a growing rival to Volkswagen’s ambitions. 

In a separate article, Reuters reported that China had emerged as a prospective buyer of Volkswagen’s unwanted factories....

....MORE

Here's one more tidbit from Holger:

Thursday, January 16, 2025

"China's economic growth surpasses forecasts on stimulus push"

From Reuters, January 16:

  • China's Q4 GDP grows 5.4% y/y, beating market forecast
  • 2024 GDP expands 5.0%, meeting the government's target
  • 2025 outlook clouded by trade tensions as Trump returns

BEIJING, Jan 17 (Reuters) - China's economy ended 2024 on better footing than expected helped by a flurry of stimulus measures, although the threat of a new trade war with the United States and weak domestic demand could hurt confidence in a broader recovery this year.

For the full-year 2024, the world's second-largest economy grew 5.0%, data from the National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Friday, meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%. Analysts had forecast 4.9% growth.

The economy grew 5.4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, significantly beating analysts' expectations and marking the quickest since the second quarter of 2023.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) would expand 5.0% from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in.
 
On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.6% in October-December, compared with a forecast 1.6% increase and a revised 1.3% gain in the previous quarter....
....MUCH MORE

Chips: "How Big A Threat Are Custom AI Chips To Nvidia Stock?" (NVDA; AVGO)

At the moment not that big a threat and not something that has just appeared, a threefer.

First up, from Trefis via Nasdaq, January 5:

Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) had a stellar 2024, rising by almost 3x to about $135 per share. Business has boomed led by the surging demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) which have emerged as the backbone of the generative artificial intelligence era. That said, over the last month or so investors appear to have their eyes on another sector of the semiconductor market, namely ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits) that could play a bigger role in AI computing.

This comes after two major ASIC players, Broadcom and Marvell Technology, reported a surge in demand for their ASICs from large cloud customers in the most recent quarters. Do Custom AI Chips Make Marvell Stock A Buy? For instance, Broadcom’s sales from its custom AI chips and networking processors surged by 220% to $12.2 billion in 2024, up from $3.8 billion in revenue that the company generated from AI silicon in FY’23. To be sure, Nvidia’s sales are head and shoulders above, estimated to come in at about $129 billion this fiscal year, but its growth rates are slowing.  So could ASICs threaten Nvidia’s AI dominance as the market matures? Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfoliowhich has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

ASICS vs GPUs

ASICs have been around for more than five decades. However, they are seeing renewed interest in the AI era. While GPUs from companies such as Nvidia are pretty versatile and can be programmed for AI as well as other tasks, ASICs are custom-designed semiconductors built to perform specific tasks giving them certain advantages versus general processors. By focusing on targeted functionalities these chips offer several advantages versus GPUs for AI. For instance, these specialized chips could be more cost-effective than GPUs, which are designed for a wider range of applications.

ASICs also consume less electricity and this makes them ideal for data centers aiming to reduce electricity costs – a key cost of operating large AI systems. ASICs can also achieve higher performance for dedicated tasks than general-purpose GPUs from Nvidia or AMD as they are purpose-built. These chips could be well suited for large cloud computing providers given that they operate at a scale that can justify the design and development costs of ASICs. For instance, Broadcom, a company that is viewed as the biggest beneficiary of a potential pivot toward ASICs, recently said that three of its hyperscaler customers intend to build clusters of 1 million custom chips across a single network.

Change In The AI Space Benefits ASICs....

....MUCH MORE

Next up, from TechRadar via Yahoo Finance January 12:

Nvidia is preparing for the post-GPU AI era as it is reportedly recruits ASIC engineers to fend off competition from Broadcom and Marvell

  • ASICs are far more efficient than GPUs for inference, not unlike mining cryptocurrency
  • The Inference AI chip market is expected to grow exponentially by the end of this decade
  • Hyperscalers like Google have already jumped on the bandwagon

Nvidia, already a leader in AI and GPU technologies, is moving into the Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) market to address growing competition and shifting trends in AI semiconductor design.

The global rise of generative AI and large language models (LLMs) has significantly increased the demand for GPUs, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed in 2024 the company will recruit 1000 engineers in Taiwan.

Now, as reported by Taiwan's Commercial Times (originally published in Chinese), the company has now established a new ASIC department and is actively recruiting talent.

The rise of inference chips
Nvidia’s H series GPUs optimized for AI learning tasks have been widely adopted for training AI models. However, the AI semiconductor market is undergoing a shift toward inference chips, or ASICs.

This surge is driven by the demand for chips optimized for real-world AI applications, such as large language models and generative AI. Unlike GPUs, ASICs offer superior efficiency for inference tasks, as well as cryptocurrency mining.

According to Verified Market Research, the inference AI chip market is projected to rise from a 2023 valuation of $15.8 billion to $90.6 billion by 2030.

Major tech players including Google have already embraced custom ASIC designs in its AI chip "Trillium", made generally available in December 2024....

....MORE

And some previous posts at Climateer Investing:

December 12, 2018
A Dip Into Chips: "AI Chip Architectures Race To The Edge"
We'll be referring back to this piece, it's the next big thing.

June 5, 2019
Chips: NVIDIA Begins To Embrace the Move Toward More Specialized Chips (NVDA; INTC; AMD; GOOG; XLNX)
See I told you I wasn't crazy. Something we've been babbling about for a couple years.

July 1,
2022
Crypto Mining Market Pullback Hits Nvidia, Others (NVDA)
Just to pound the message home, the high-end miners switched to ASICS years ago.
That said, this is a nice overview of what's been going on with GPU's.

February 9, 2024
Nvidia Is Developing A Custom Chip Design Unit To Address $30 Billion Niche (NVDA)
Yes, a big niche but still a niche. Nvidia really, really wanted to own ARM's design capability but when the regulators said 'ummm no', Mr. Huang didn't stop trying to address the fact that Google, Microsoft, Amazon Tesla and Facebook are all producing their own data center chips....

And many more. If interested use the 'search blog' box, upper left.

The stock is trading at $137.17, up $0.93 (+0.68%) still a ways away from the January 7 all-time-high, $153.13

"France danced ‘fatal tango’ with debt, PM Bayrou says as he takes aim at predecessors"

Tango? Couldn't he have gone with a gavotte or a quadrille or some other old-timey French dance?
(apologies, I may have focused on the wrong part of the headline)

From Politico.eu, January 14:

Leader’s first speech will test his ability to strike deals with opposition parties.

PARIS — French Prime Minister François Bayrou slammed the country’s previous leaders and opposition parties for ignoring increasing indebtedness in his first major policy speech, accusing the whole political class of having danced a "fatal tango that brought us to the edge of the precipice.”

"Every party of government, without exception, is responsible for the situation created over the last few decades," Bayrou told lawmakers on Tuesday. The 73-year-old centrist listed the debt increases under each French president since Socialist François Mitterrand in 1981 — drawing jeers from the various political groups that have been in charge since then.

Bayrou, like his short-lived predecessor Michel Barnier, compared the debt to a "sword of Damocles" hanging over France.

"Why catastrophe bonds are failing to cover disaster damage"

It is a financial contract, read the fine print.

From The Economist, January 16:

The innovative form of insurance is reaching its limits

THE SCENES of devastation in Los Angeles were just the latest in a recent barrage. Last year hurricanes in the Atlantic, earthquakes in Japan and flooding in Europe all carried huge financial and human costs. Indeed, 2024 is set to be the year with the third-biggest insured losses, adjusted for inflation, in more than four decades.

Surely, then, it is a bad time to own catastrophe bonds? These are securities that protect issuers, mostly insurers and governments, from severe losses in the event of a natural disaster by paying out when certain conditions are met. In fact, across the asset class, such bonds returned 20% and 18% in 2023 and 2024, respectively—the strongest two years in recent decades. Instead of paying up, bondholders have reaped vast profits. Issuance has boomed and the market has doubled in size over the past ten years. It is now worth $50bn.

The gulf between the devastation and the rude returns available to bondholders is a stark demonstration of the limits of the asset class. Yet sometimes buyers and sellers of catastrophe bonds are a match made in heaven. Issuers hope to cover themselves against low-probability outcomes with costs that could overwhelm them. Investors are hungry for assets that do not move in tandem with the rest of their portfolio. This opportunity has become only more attractive since 2022, when bonds and stocks fell together, whacking investors who believed they had diversified by buying both. Viewed in such a light, catastrophe bonds are an example of financial markets at their very best.

Part of the reason for the lack of recent payouts is the exacting terms on which bonds are frequently issued. After Hurricane Beryl struck Jamaica in July, for example, the country’s GDP shrank by almost 3% in the third quarter of the year, driven by a 14% drop in agricultural output. Despite this painful decline in economic activity, a catastrophe bond issued by the Jamaican government and the World Bank did not disburse funds. The bond had so-called parametric triggers—ones based on measurable environmental conditions. In Jamaica’s case, the air pressure measured during the hurricane was a fraction higher than the maximum level allowed for the bond to pay out.

When it comes to California’s wildfires, catastrophe bonds face a different and more fundamental challenge. Since the 1990s, when such bonds first emerged, the market has mainly protected issuers against “peak perils”, or the largest and most damaging events such as earthquakes and hurricanes. However, it is the more common “secondary perils”—a bucket including everything from the current wildfires to hail and thunderstorms—that have expanded to take up a much larger share of total insured losses owing to the impact of climate change.

Some 61% of the catastrophe-bond market still covers only losses from a single major event, according to Artemis, a data firm. The other 39% of bonds in the market disburse funds when costs rise above an annual threshold, meaning that numerous secondary perils can add up to produce a payout. On top of this, investors are now demanding enormous returns in exchange for protecting issuers against losses from secondary perils. In the most extreme cases, spreads over the yield on Treasury bonds can be above 20 percentage points....

....MORE

Media: "Bloomberg launches gen AI summarisation tool for news"

From The Trade, January 15:

Named AI-Powered News Summaries, the new offering provides three bullet points at the top of Bloomberg News content on the Terminal, generated through generative AI technology.

Bloomberg has made available AI-Powered News Summaries to enable Bloomberg Terminal users to speedily digest key takeaways and to remain informed.

The development follows the launch of AI-Powered Earnings Call Summaries, which came as part of Bloomberg’s goal to “reimagine the Bloomberg Terminal for the age of AI.”

Users of AI-Powered News Summaries will be provided with three bullet points at the top of Bloomberg News content on the Terminal, which are generated through generative AI technology....

....MUCH MORE

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Hunter Biden Artworks Valued In The Tens Of Dollars Lost To Los Angeles Fires

From the New York Post, January 15:

A trove of nearly 200 artworks by Hunter Biden has been destroyed — one of the casualties of the wildfires ravaging Los Angeles, The Post has learned.

The controversial art had been in storage near the Pacific Palisades home of Hunter’s Hollywood attorney Kevin Morris and is valued at “millions of dollars,” a source close to the Biden family said.

Morris, who loaned the first son nearly $5 million to help pay a tax bill and has been financing a documentary on him, lives in a sprawling five-bedroom, six-bathroom home which is among the few houses still intact in the posh neighborhood, The Post can confirm....

....MUCH MORE 

With High-Noon, January 20, 2025 fast approaching I'm thinking those artworks were experiencing theta decay faster than a 0DTE two minutes before the bell.

Saudi Arabia To Become The Saudi Arabia Of Rare Earth Elements

From CNBC, January 15:

Saudi Arabia vows to be ‘fast and furious’ in mining as it reveals $100 billion investment

  • Saudi Arabia last year increased the valuation of its unexploited mineral resources from $1.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion, boosted by the discovery of rare earth elements and metals.
  • The kingdom on Wednesday announced a new mineral investment project valued at $100 billion, with $20 billion already in the final engineering phase or under construction.
  • Investment in critical minerals mining and processing must be happening “as fast and furious as possible” in Saudi Arabia, its energy minister said at the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia is pushing ahead to put itself on the global critical minerals map, announcing a number of deals, investment plans and discoveries at its annual Future Minerals Forum in the capital Riyadh.

Saudi Vice Minister of Mining Affairs Khalid al-Mudaifer announced Wednesday the development of a new mineral investment project valued at $100 billion, and that $20 billion of it was already in the final engineering phase or under construction.

While the vice minister did not provide further details, Saudi officials have discussed plans to significantly expand the country’s exploration for lithium, as well as for other critical minerals and rare earth elements including copper, gold, zinc, phosphate and nickel.

In early 2024, the kingdom’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources increased its estimate of the value of its unexploited mineral resources from $1.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion, boosted by the discovery of the aforementioned elements and metals. At the Future Minerals Forum in January 2024, the Saudi government established a $182 million incentive program for minerals exploration....

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January 12, 2024 - Saudi Arabia Raises Estimate Of Mineral Resource Value 90% To $2.5 Trillion

*The introduction to March 2012's "Saudi Arabia to Become the Saudi Arabia of Oil Deliveries (A Whole Lot of Oil Cometh)":

If you do a search for "the Saudi Arabia of...". Google returns around one million hits, from "Maine to become the Saudi Arabia of wind" to "Mongolia: the Saudi Arabia of Coal" to "America, the Saudi Arabia of plastic packaging" to, well you get the idea. As far back as 2009 Kate Galbraith did a post at the NYT's Green blog  that asked readers for suggestions on replacing the trope. Not gonna happen.

Oh 'effing 'eff. I just checked the link and the very first hit is The Economist, January 11, 2023: 

Saudi Arabia wants to be the Saudi Arabia of minerals
economist.com
https://www.economist.com › business › 2024/01/11

1 day ago — Saudi Arabia wants to be the Saudi Arabia of minerals. The kingdom plans to be digging up plenty more than oil. Railroad tracks by a quarry ...

There is still a chance the Kingdom could become The Saudi Arabia of sand, though the stuff they have on the surface isn't worth much; the grains get blown around by the wind and rounded-off, losing the sharp corners that the sand connoisseur looks for.

Beneath the surface however... 

Or, if your silica sommelier can procure some primo Indian riverine, heaven!

And in other news: "Deployment of the @ispace_inc RESILIENCE lunar lander confirmed"

From SpaceX, January 15:

Earlier today:

...Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment, but he tweeted something derogatory about the SEC on Wednesday morning....

Backstory, January 15:

SPACEX HITS 100TH LAUNCH FROM HISTORIC PAD 39A WITH DOUBLE MOON MISSION


"Short-selling firm Hindenburg Research is closing up shop"

If you, like me, you have spent perhaps too much time at the market your first thought may be: "Is this a sign of a top?"

From Yahoo Finance, January 15:

Short-selling firm Hindenburg Research, which rose to national prominence uncovering fraud at EV startup Nikola (NKLA), said Wednesday it would wind down its operations.

"As I’ve shared with family, friends and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research," founder Nate Anderson wrote in a post on Wednesday. "The plan has been to wind up after we finished the pipeline of ideas we were working on. And as of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today."

In 2024, Hindenburg uncovered what it said were accounting irregularities at data center company Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which was subsequently forced to delay the filing of some financial statements.

Hindenburg's 2023 reports on Indian conglomerate Adani and Icahn Enterprises both saw the company take on two of the world's most powerful investors.

Hindenburg's biggest report broke in 2020, when the firm revealed failings at EV truck startup Nikola, including uncovering that the company infamously rolled a prototype of its electric semi-truck downhill.

Nikola founder and CEO Trevor Milton was later sentenced to four years in prison after being found guilty of misleading investors....

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"He posted videos of the start of the Palisades fire. Then the internet blamed him"

From the Los Angeles Times, January 14:

The five men were meditating off a trail near Skull Rock in the hills above Pacific Palisades on the morning of Jan. 7.

With their eyes closed, they spoke about how they were feeling, what they were sensing.

One said, “I feel my breath slowing down.” Another said, “I feel gravity increasing.”

Then, all at once, four of them said the same thing: “I smell fire.”

The five men, including Beni Oren, a 24-year-old who runs a glamping business, were the first to spot the Palisades fire in its earliest stages, around 10:15 a.m., sources told The Times. Video recorded by the trail runners shows them dashing down the hillside away from the flames and smoke.

But what started as a traumatic, near-death experience turned into what he said was a longer-term nightmare after Oren posted his video of the experience on social media.

With so little information about the origin of the deadly fires that are still burning in Los Angeles, people on the internet began casting suspicion on the men who were so close to the ignition point of the fire.

“I’ve been feeling a mix of emotions. It’s definitely kind of infuriating that people are blaming us,” Oren said in an interview with The Times. “Also it’s scary. Just knowing as a matter of fact of our experience that we didn’t do it but then seeing the amount of people that have different theories is overwhelming.”

The Palisades fire has burned more than 23,000 acres as of Tuesday morning. It was 18% contained as of Tuesday night. At least nine people have been killed.

Oren said he and his friends decided to go for a trail run that morning and summited Skull Rock around 10 a.m. before going off trail to meditate on another nearby rock. When they smelled smoke, the men opened their eyes and saw flames cresting over the ridge of the mountain. Oren said he could not see exactly where the fire started, just that it was coming over the ridge. The flames seemed about 10 feet high. The fire was about 100 feet away....

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We didn't blame them, just said they should be interrogated.

Here are the versions of the videos reposted by reporter Bill Melugin:

Climateer Line of the Day, Barron's On Elon Musk Edition

With all the crosscurrents pushing and pulling on Tesla investor sentiment Barron's published this, Updated Jan. 15, 2025 10:05 am ET / Original Jan. 15, 2025 7:11 am ET:

Tesla Stock Is Soaring. Inflation Trumps the SEC.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy raised his target for Tesla stock. And the SEC is going after CEO Elon Musk again.

Tesla stock took off as investors weighed everything from a new battle between CEO Elon Musk and the Securities and Exchange Commission to Wall Street price targets to the latest inflation data.

Shares of the electric-vehicle maker were up 4% in early trading at $412.10, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both rose about 1.5%.

Inflation data was the biggest reason for the jump. Markets rallied after core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at a slower pace than expected. That could keep the Federal Reserve on a path to lower interest rates, which should help make new cars more affordable. Many cars are bought with some form of financing.

Wednesday’s early move also comes after the SEC, on Tuesday, disclosed a lawsuit over Musk’s 2022 purchase of Twitter, which has been renamed X. Musk “failed to timely file with the SEC a beneficial ownership report disclosing his acquisition of more than five percent of the outstanding shares of Twitter’s common stock in March 2022, in violation of the federal securities laws,” reads the complaint.

Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment, but he tweeted something derogatory about the SEC on Wednesday morning....

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In the words of Larry the Cable Guy: "I don't care who you are, that's funny right there."

TSLA is trading at $416.31, up $19.95 (+5.03%) on the day, pulling back from the $418.96 top tick.

Here's hoping the stock does not close at $420 or Mr. Musk may become insufferable.

"CPI for all items rises 0.4% in December; gasoline and shelter up"

That's the headline at the BLS. First up, Barron's relays the FactSet survey:

Here's what economists surveyed by FactSet expected:

YoY: Consumer prices are expected to have increased by 2.8% vs. 2.7% in November

MoM: 0.3% increase, matching November's rate

Core YoY: 3.3% increase, matching November's rate

Core MoM: 0.2% increase vs. 0.3% in November

And their flash headline:

Stronger-Than-Expected Inflation Puts Further Rate Cut Plans on Ice

And back to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 15:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - DECEMBER 2024

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 2.6 percent in December, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The gasoline index increased 4.4 percent over the month. The index for food also increased in December, rising 0.3 percent as both the index for food at home and the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent each.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in December, after increasing 0.3 percent in each of the previous 4 months. Indexes that increased in December include shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care. The indexes for personal care, communication, and alcoholic beverages were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending December, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending November. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending December. The food index increased 2.5 percent over the last year....

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Barron's followup headline:

Core Inflation Reading Softer Than Expected

"AccuWeather estimates more than $250 billion in damages and economic loss from LA wildfires"

Although the number of structures destroyed seems to have stopped increasing for the last couple days the economic losses and the insured portion of the damage and destruction are heading higher with each new report.

First up, from AccuWeather, January 13: 

To put the magnitude of loss into context, this latest damage and economic loss estimate surpasses the numbers for the entire 2020 wildfire season.

As fires continue to rage across Southern California and the scope of catastrophic damage, loss of life, business disruptions and other economic impacts becomes clearer, AccuWeather has updated and increased its preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss to between $250 billion and $275 billion.  

“These fast-moving, wind-driven infernos have created one of the costliest wildfire disasters in modern U.S. history,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “Hurricane-force winds sent flames ripping through neighborhoods filled with multi-million-dollar homes. The devastation left behind is heartbreaking, and the economic toll is staggering."

The worst of the fires are burning in an area from Santa Monica to Malibu, impacting some of the most expensive real estate in the country, with median home values over $2 million. Should a large number of additional structures be burned in the coming days, it may become the worst wildfire in modern California history based on the number of structures burned and economic loss,” Porter added....

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And from the re/insurance/cat bond/ILS pros at Artemis, January 15:

BMS says LA wildfire insured losses likely to exceed $25bn. KBW analyses up to $40bn

Broking group BMS has said that it expects the insurance and reinsurance market losses from the Los Angeles region of California wildfires are likely to exceed $25 billion, while analysts at KBW have analysed what an industry loss of up to $40 billion might mean for the market.

Estimates for the insurance industry loss from the wildfires have been steadily rising, with many sitting in a range from $15 billion to $25 billion, within which most are now moving towards the higher-end.

However, some estimates now suggest $30 billion or even higher may be the final bill for the insurance and reinsurance market, while Dowling said between $30 billion and $50 billion.

Still, the estimates for the number of structures destroyed or damaged by the ongoing fire situation in Southern California is being reported to be around 12,300, so that has not changed for a few days.

What is changing the estimates is the analysis around property values and precisely which properties and streets have been destroyed, with more granular data emerging and helping make that analysis easier. As well as views on additional costs the insurance market will bear, from additional living expenses, through fine art losses, and business interruption.

Insurance and reinsurance broking group BMS has now issued its view, saying it believes the total insured loss could rise above $25 billion.

BMS explained, “Damage assessments are ongoing. It has been reported that the estimated average residential replacement values in the Eaton area are about $1 million and exceed $2 million in both the Malibu and Pacific Palisades areas. So, a quick estimate yields $17B in insurance losses to be the floor, but we know the insurance losses here will not be formed from this simple calculation.

“These losses will likely exceed $25B as several factors will start to come into play that lead to the question of just how high that loss might be.”

The broker further stated, “Some of the questions that need to be asked that could drastically increase the losses center on how much will be paid out in additional living expenses. Hyper-demand surges in labor and materials will no doubt be a significant factor in an already expensive area of the country. We know disasters like these will take years, if not decades, to recover, and there are questions about how quickly this will occur.”

The company further added, “Many of the homes are bespoke and high-value, so it will take extra effort to understand designs and replacement costs. What factors will new laws and ordinances for either earthquake or wildfire might increase the rebuilding efforts of some structures? There are no doubt questions about possible fine art losses that might be more common in wealthy areas that have been affected. Smoke damage to structures outside the wildfire perimeter could add to the losses. Adjusters will be at a premium, and what type of litigation from claims disputes might arise, which could increase the loss-adjusted expense. Commercial losses can be more complex to estimate, and the resultant business interruption will add to the losses.”....

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The inflationary impacts on the California housing and construction markets are going to be dramatic as devastated homeowners compete to find immediate shelter and begin contracting for builders and construction commodities.

And as Mssr. Bastiat pointed out long ago, there will be large upticks in GDP without any actual wealth building.
(he was actually talking about windows but the larger GDP point is the end result of his observation)

Capital Markets: "Yen Jumps as Ueda Says Rate Hike Being Considered and Soft CPI Helps UK Gilts"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar is little changed the G10 currencies but softer. Comments by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda underscored that this month's meeting is live, and this sent the yen to its best level since January 6. The UK reported softer than expected consumer prices, but the timing of the data collection may have skewed the report. Still, sterling is firm, and UK Gilts have rallied. Today's North American focus is on the CPI. While yesterday's PPI came in slightly softer than expected, the components that feed into the PCE deflator were firm.

Equities are mostly higher, though in Asia Pacific, they were more mixed, with China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia posting losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is trying to end a three-day slide. US index futures are firm. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 3-5 bp lower, with the UK Gilts doing best with an eight basis point pullback. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a couple basis points softer at 4.77%. Gold is approaching this week's high set Monday near $2695. The high for the year was set before the weekend near $2698. The yellow metal has not been above $2700 since December 12. The strong momentum in crude oil this year stalled on Monday with February WTI slightly above $79.25. It is consolidating after retreating to about $77.25 today.

USD: It is hard to believe that last week's December jobs data or yesterday's PPI, or even today's CPI will have much impact on the Fed's decisions, say in the second half of the year. Still, market participants believe....

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"Paralysis looms over Russia's Arctic oil"

From the Barents Observer, January 13:

New US sanctions deal an unprecedented blow to the companies that over the past decade have developed major oil and gas resources in one of the most [sic] remotest parts of the planet. 

The sanctions package that was announced by the US Treasury on 10 January includes almost all the major extraction companies, infrastructure objects and ships that are involved in hydrocarbon development in the Russian Arctic.

The measures could paralyse major parts of the country's oil industry in the region.

Among the companies on the list is Gazprom Neft and several of its subsidiary companies, as well as its leader Aleksandr Dyukov. 

Since his appointment in 2008, Dyukov has developed Gazprom Neft into Russia's third biggest oil producer.

The company is the oil branch of state natural gas company Gazprom. A key share of its operations is located in the Arctic.

The Prirazlomnoye project was launched in 2013 and is still Russia's only offshore oil field in the far north. In 2016, the company started full-scale production at Novy Port, the oil field located in the Yamal Peninsula....

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Tuesday, January 14, 2025

"China building monster barges to overrun Taiwan’s shores"

Make them big enough and you have a mobile causeway
(okay, maybe not 120 miles or whatever the Taiwan Strait is.)

From Asia Times, January 13:

China’s new fleet of specialized landing craft are designed to bypass traditional beach defenses and exploit Taiwan’s ports 

China’s latest fleet of special-purpose amphibious barges is rewriting the playbook for a potential Taiwan invasion, raising the stakes in the cross-strait standoff with bold new tactics and high-stakes challenges for the self-governing island’s defenders.

This month, Naval News reported that China is rapidly constructing a fleet of special-purpose barges, potentially for amphibious assaults on Taiwan. According to the report, five such vessels with unusually long road bridges extending from their bows, enabling the offloading of tanks and heavy equipment directly onto Taiwanese roads, have been observed at Guangzhou Shipyard.

Naval News notes that these barges, reminiscent of the Mulberry Harbors used during the Allied invasion of Normandy in World War II, are designed to reach coastal roads or hard surfaces beyond beaches, possibly making previously unsuitable landing sites viable. Construction of the barges, which began with a prototype in 2022, has accelerated recently, raising concerns about China’s intentions.

Naval News suggests that these vessels are tailored for military use, given their size and design, which far exceed civilian requirements. The report says the barges’ ability to dock with China’s large fleet of roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) ferries, built to carry military vehicles, further underscores their potential role in a Taiwan invasion.

The report notes that this development complicates Taiwan’s defense strategy, allowing China to select new landing sites and bypass heavily defended beaches and ports.

In October 2023, Asia Times mentioned that China’s amphibious sealift capabilities face significant limitations, complicating a potential invasion of Taiwan. As of December 2024, China had four Type 075 landing helicopter assault (LHA) ships and nine landing platform docks (LPD), with more Type 76 LHAs on the horizon....

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Meanwhile China's outward-focused propaganda organ, Global Times, responds:

Foreign, Taiwan island media hype on alleged Chinese mainland construction of landing barges exposes anxiety over growing PLA capabilities: expert
For some reason I found myself thinking of Admiral Zheng He and his Treasure Ships:

https://www.thoughtco.com/thmb/virQLetAzE_OU_cUlLZpxFeMA-4=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/Zhengship-5b51065346e0fb0037a0774c.jpg

Scale models of Zheng He's ship compared to Columbus's vessel.

However, see also Cambridge's Dr. Sally Church: "Zheng He: An Investigation into the Plausibility of 450-ft Treasure Ships"

The Net Zero Asset Managers Trade Group Is Shutting Down

From Reuters, January 13:

Exclusive: Investor climate group suspends activities after BlackRock exit

  •     Net-Zero Asset Managers initiative writes to members
  •     Follows exit of BlackRock amid U.S. political backlash
  •     Network partners say have launched review of structure

LONDON/BOSTON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - A flagship coalition aimed at aligning the asset management industry with global climate goals said it was suspending its activities on Monday, days after BlackRock, the world's biggest investor, left amid a political backlash in the United States.

The pause raised concerns that companies will lower their efforts on climate change even after the hottest year on record, but could buy organizers time to review what actions might still be acceptable for U.S. fund firms.
 
BlackRock, which manages some $11.5 trillion in assets, left the Net-Zero Asset Managers(NZAM) initiative on Jan. 9 citing confusion over its climate efforts and legal inquiries from public officials.
 
The step followed months of escalating pressure from some Republican politicians over its stance on investing in fossil fuel companies, with concern that such pressure could rise further as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office.
 
The group counted more than 325 signatories managing more than $57.5 trillion in assets as members, according to its website as of last week, before the departure of BlackRock.
In a letter to its members first reported by Reuters, the partner groups which help manage the NZAM said they had decided to conduct a review of its activities....
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Chips: "TSMC's Arizona Fab 21 is already making 4nm chips — yield and quality reportedly on par with Taiwan fabs"

Big if true.

From Tom's Hardware, January 11:

It was alleged to be for AMD and Apple, but Raimondo did not say that.

TSMC has started producing chips at its Fab 21 near Phoenix, Arizona, using its 4nm-class process technology, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told Reuters. This marks the first time such a cutting-edge production node has been manufactured in the United States. The confirmation from a high-ranking official comes months after the first unofficial information emerged that the fab was mass-producing chips for Apple.

"For the first time ever in our country's history, we are making leading-edge 4nm chips on American soil, American workers — on par in yield and quality with Taiwan," Raimondo told Reuters.

According to unofficial information, TSMC's Fab 21 in Arizona is manufacturing at least three processor models: the A16 Bionic system-on-chip used in Apple's iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus; the main processor of Apple's S9 system-in-package for smartwatches, which has two 64-bit cores and a quad-core neural engine; and an AMD Ryzen 9000-series CPU. These chips are produced on TSMC's 4nm-class—N4 and N4P—process technologies....

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The Cause Of The Palisade Fire: Probably NOT Embers Reigniting

From the New York Post, January 13:

LA’s Palisades Fire likely caused by humans in hiking area popular with teens: report 

The Palisades Fire, the biggest and most destructive wildfire in Los Angeles history, has “human origins” as a likely cause, according to a new report.

Authorities investigating the cause of the fire told the Los Angeles Times that they believe it was started by someone — possibly as an accident, sources told the Times.

Officials noted the trail is popular with hikers and is often used as a hangout by local teens and the fire may have “human origins,” according to the Times.

The area’s an overlook known as Skull Rock on the Temescal Ridge trail in Pacific Palisades. The blaze has consumed nearly 30,000 acres (47 square miles) and destroyed 5,000 structures since it was sparked nearly a week ago.

A small fire burned there on New Year’s Eve after apparently being started by fireworks, but was put out shortly after....

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Media: "The Washington Post’s traffic tanks"

Daily users down 87 to 89% in four years.

From Semafor, January 13:

Washington Post subscribers quit the paper en masse following owner Jeff Bezos’ decision to withhold its endorsement of outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris. But the Post’s audience problems extend beyond angry former subscribers.

Over the last four years, web traffic has cratered. According to internal data shared with Semafor in recent weeks, the Post’s regular daily traffic last year sunk to less than a quarter of what it was at its peak in January 2021. That month, the Post briefly reached a high of around 22.5 million daily active users following the attack. But by the middle of 2024, its daily users hovered around 2.5-3 million daily users....

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