Tuesday, October 15, 2024

"SpaceX’s last ~40 hours"

From rocket geek/photographer John Kraus:

 SpaceX’s last ~40 hours:

- launch of history’s largest and most powerful rocket, Starship, completing the first-ever midair catch of a rocket booster and an on-target ocean landing of the upper stage

- launch of Falcon Heavy with an interplanetary NASA spacecraft headed to one of Jupiter’s moons, achieving a new Falcon vehicle velocity record

- two Falcon 9 launches of dozens of Starlink satellites; one from Florida, one from California

That’s four launches of three different rockets (Starship/FH/F9) from four unique launch sites in three U.S. states — in ~40 hours. Insanity.

Also, in yesterday's post "Best Footage Of SpaceX Catching The Super Heavy Booster" I forgot to mention that the booster that Mechazilla caught weighs 250 tons. 
Don't try this at home.

The Companies That Want To Harvest Your Brainwaves

"You'll get nothing from me, copper..." 

From MIT's Technology Review:

A new law in California protects consumers’ brain data. Some think it doesn’t go far enough.
Tech companies collect brain data that could be used to infer our thoughts—so it’s vital we get legal protections right.

This article first appeared in The Checkup, MIT Technology Review’s weekly biotech newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Thursday, and read articles like this first, sign up here.

On September 28, California became the second US state to officially recognize the importance of mental privacy in state law. That pink, jelly-like, throbbing mass under your skull—a.k.a. your brain—contains all your thoughts, memories, and ideas. It controls your feelings and actions. Measuring brain activity can reveal a lot about a person—and that’s why neural data needs to be protected.

Regular Checkup readers will be familiar with some of the burgeoning uses of “mind-reading” technologies. We can track brain activity with all sorts of devices, some of which measure brain waves while others track electrical activity or blood flow. Scientists have been able to translate this data into signals to help paralyzed people move their limbs or even communicate by thought alone.

But this data also has uses beyond health care. Today, consumers can buy headsets that allow them to learn more about how their brains work and help them feel calm. Employers use devices to monitor how alert their employees are, and schools use them to check if students are paying attention.

Brain data is precious. It’s not the same as thought, but it can be used to work out how we’re thinking and feeling, and reveal our innermost preferences and desires. So let’s look at how California’s law might protect mental privacy—and how far we still have to go.

The new bill amends the California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018, which grants consumers rights over personal information that is collected by businesses. The term “personal information” already included biometric data (such as your face, voice, or fingerprints). Now it also explicitly includes neural data.

The bill defines neural data as “information that is generated by measuring the activity of a consumer’s central or peripheral nervous system, and that is not inferred from nonneural information.” In other words, data collected from a person’s brain or nerves....

....MUCH MORE

Also from the famous trade school down the river from Harvard:

MIT: "On the Effectiveness of Tin-Foil Helmets: An Empirical Study"
Being MIT they called them helmets rather than hats.
And since no-one seems to manufacture tin-foil for consumer use they use aluminum foil despite the accepted tin-foil nomenclature.

A repost from July 2011.
I was just told that the post immediately below, "Uh oh: The DJIA's Highest Priced Components Are the Ones That Are Up (IBM; DIA)" sounded "a little tin-foil hat-ish".
Ha!

From MIT via Moses Moore:
 Ali Rahimi1, Ben Recht 2, Jason Taylor 2, Noah Vawter 2
17 Feb 2005
1: Electrical Engineering and Computer Science department, MIT.
2: Media Laboratory, MIT. 
[aluhelmet.jpg]
[scientist - note electronicy looking stuff]

Abstract

Among a fringe community of paranoids, aluminum helmets serve as the protective measure of choice against invasive radio signals. We investigate the efficacy of three aluminum helmet designs on a sample group of four individuals. Using a $250,000 network analyser, we find that although on average all helmets attenuate invasive radio frequencies in either directions (either emanating from an outside source, or emanating from the cranium of the subject), certain frequencies are in fact greatly amplified. These amplified frequencies coincide with radio bands reserved for government use according to the Federal Communication Commission (FCC). Statistical evidence suggests the use of helmets may in fact enhance the government's invasive abilities. We speculate that the government may in fact have started the helmet craze for this reason.

Introduction
It has long been suspected that the government has been using satellites to read and control the minds of certain citizens. The use of aluminum helmets has been a common guerrilla tactic against the government's invasive tactics [1]. Surprisingly, these helmets can in fact help the government spy on citizens by amplifying certain key frequency ranges reserved for government use. In addition, none of the three helmets we analyzed provided significant attenuation to most frequency bands. We describe our experimental setup, report our results, and conclude with a few design guidelines for constructing more effective helmets.

Experimental Setup
We evaluated the performance of three different helmet designs, commonly referred to as the Classical, the Fez, and the Centurion. These designs are portrayed in Figure 1. The helmets were made of Reynolds aluminium foil. As per best practices, all three designs were constructed with the double layering technique described elsewhere [2].

A radio-frequency test signal sweeping the ranges from 10 Khz to 3 Ghz was generated using an omnidirectional antenna attached to the Agilent 8714ET's signal generator....

...Results

For all helmets, we noticed a 30 db amplification at 2.6 Ghz and a 20 db amplification at 1.2 Ghz, regardless of the position of the antenna on the cranium. In addition, all helmets exhibited a marked 20 db attenuation at around 1.5 Ghz, with no significant attenuation beyond 10 db anywhere else.

Conclusion

The helmets amplify frequency bands that coincide with those allocated to the US government between 1.2 Ghz and 1.4 Ghz. According to the FCC, These bands are supposedly reserved for ''radio location'' (ie, GPS), and other communications with satellites (see, for example, [3]). The 2.6 Ghz band coincides with mobile phone technology. Though not affiliated by government, these bands are at the hands of multinational corporations.

It requires no stretch of the imagination to conclude that the current helmet craze is likely to have been propagated by the Government, possibly with the involvement of the FCC. We hope this report will encourage the paranoid community to develop improved helmet designs to avoid falling prey to these shortcomings....MORE
Rebuttal From ZPi:
A recent MIT study [1] calls into question the effectiveness of Aluminum Foil Deflector Beanies. However, there are serious flaws in this study, not the least of which is a complete mischaracterization of the process of psychotronic mind control. I theorize that the study is, in fact, NWO propaganda designed to spread FUD against deflector beanie technology, and aluminum shielding in general, in order to disembeanie paranoids, leaving them open to mind control.

First and foremost, Rahimi et al. only considered simple radio frequencies. As I explained in detail in chapter 4 ("Psychotronic and AFDB Theory") of my book [2], only psychotronic energy can affect the brain in any coherent manner. Simple EM fields have only trivial effects -- such as causing indistinct sensations of a supernatural presence [3] -- over short distances. Only by converting electromagnetic energy into psychotronic energy using a psychotron-based device can the forces of mind control access from afar the neural network of a brain to both implant and extract thought complexes.
Figure 1
FIGURE 1: An AFDB-covered brain (A) is shielded by a repulsive resonance buffer (B), which deflects psychotronic fields (C). Coherent psychotronic rays (D) are defected at the aluminum surface (E) and decoherently scattered (F). The resonance buffer encapsulates the brain (G), providing basal protection against fields and glancing rays.

As illustrated in Figure 1, unlike with the mere attenuation of EM fields, aluminum deflects psychotronic fields and coherent psychotronic rays. The operational modalities of AFDBs for EM and psychotronic energies are completely different, and thus the experiment conducted by Rahimi et al. is inappropriate to test the effectiveness of deflector beanie technology in stopping mind control.

Besides the experiment's unsuitability, the experimental procedures themselves appear flawed. The measuring of the signal was described by Rahimi et al. as follows:
The receiver antenna was placed at various places on the cranium of 4 different subjects: the frontal, occipital and parietal lobes. Once with the helmet off and once with the helmet on.
Figure 2
FIGURE 2: (A) Excessively pointy omnidirectional antenna. (B) Chef's Pride brand foil (photo enhanced).
But the antenna shown in Figure 2 on their site would not possibly be able to fit under the helmets while on a head, at least not without awk­wardly balancing the helmet counter to best practices or punc­turing the foil. If the antenna was instead placed on the outside of the helmets, as seems most likely from the description, then that calls into question the entire conclusion: If the amp­lifi­cation effect is measured only on the helmet outside, then that suggests that the helmet is reflecting the EM radiation away from the wearer's brain.

Oddly, Rahimi et al. make a great deal about the price of their equipment, noting the US$250,000 price tag of their Agilent 8714ET network analyser three times in their short paper. What relevance is this to the conclusion? I believe its a subtle way of discouraging people from replicating the experiment at home....MORE

"Rise of Zombie VCs that stick around collecting fees as their startups run out of cash and die. The AI boom is the exception"

What's not to love? (as long as you are the General Partner) 

From Wolf Street, October 14:

Venture Capital Slammed by Fed Tightening: Exits Blocked after IPOs & SPACs Collapsed, Distributions at Financial Crisis Lows 

Outside of the boom in anything with AI or Machine Learning (ML) in its name or description, a lot of hot air has come out of the Venture Capital industry from the steamy levels during the free-money era of the pandemic.

Since the Fed started hiking rates and switched from QE to QT, marking the end of free money, VC funds experienced large-scale write-downs of their portfolio companies. They now cannot exit those startups by selling them because the market has tightened, after many hundreds of companies that VCs sold to the public during the free-money era via IPO or SPAC merger collapsed and entered into our pantheon of Imploded Stocks.

Exits in dollar terms amounted to only $10 billion in Q3, according to the Venture Capital Monitor for Q3 from PitchBook. VC funds sold only 14 portfolio companies via public listings. For the year through Q3, VCs booked only $69 billion in exits, down by 91% from the full-year 2021 of $780 billion in exits, which was the steamy and final year of free money. In 2024 so far, compared to 2021:

  • Exits via IPOs or SPACs: -95% (red)
  • Exits via buyouts by PE firms: -91% (yellow)
  • Exits via acquisition by Corporations: -64.5% (purple)

Successful exits are what makes the VC industry work. VC funds have to be able to sell their portfolio companies, at least some of them, at a huge profit, and then distribute the proceeds from the sale to the limited partners (LPs) in their funds so that these investors can re-invest their VC allocations in new VC funds that invest in the next cycle of startups.

The exit is when everyone makes money – except, as we learned over the past three years when these newly public IPO and SPAC stocks collapsed, the buyers; they ended up holding the bag. But now the whole system of exits, fundraising, and dealmaking has gotten clogged up because the pipeline of exits is blocked....

...MUCH MORE

And there's private equity. If the Fed doesn't bring rates down, fast, we'll probably be referring back to this May 2024 post - Private Equity, The Refi Crunch

I'm guessing we will be seeing more bankruptcies among the 2009 - 2022 cohorts,

"Disaster, Inc. The weather is bad but the profits are good"

From Sherwood News:

Natural disasters are making a mess of America. Private equity wants the cleanup cash
The global remediation industry is forecast to grow from $70 billion this year to $92 billion by 2029, and investors are clamoring to get a piece of it

The $200 billion US disaster-restoration industry, which runs the gamut from mold-remediation services to fire-damage repair, has traditionally been run by small, local, independent businesses. It’s how the giants in the industry got started: New York-based Belfor USA bought into the industry when it acquired a small family company founded in 1946 as Quality Awnings & Construction, while cleanup titan Servpro began as an independent painting company in 1967 in Sacramento, California. 

Restoration businesses became private-equity targets with the successive disasters of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the financial crisis in 2008. Katrina demonstrated the scale and potential addressable market of modern disaster cleanup; two years later, the financial crisis nudged private equity into seeking out businesses with stable cash flows in fragmented industries. The restoration industry is an investor’s dream: it’s replete with mom-and-pop operators who are guaranteed business by the ever-increasing stream of natural disasters. 

“This industry is recession-proof and keeps growing,” said JT Kraai, CEO and founder of Exit Strategies 360, which brokers merger-and-acquisition deals between private equity and restoration and remediation firms.

Restoration businesses became private-equity targets with the successive 
disasters of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the financial crisis in 2008.

To such investors, hurricanes are not just a disaster but also an opportunity. Post-storm remediation (removing below-the-surface issues like mold or water damage) and reconstruction (repairing walls, replacing carpets, fixing roofs) have attracted growing financing. The cadence of storms like Hurricane Helene, whose “biblical devastation” last week caused up to $5 billion in commercial-property damage, and Hurricane Milton, which has wreaked havoc across Florida, is why the global-remediation industry is forecast to grow from $70 billion this year to $92 billion by 2029

With the uptick in powerful hurricanes, mold remediation alone is now a billion-dollar business. American homes have become more, not less, likely to grow mold. The widespread switch from plaster to drywall during the post-World War II homebuilding boom gave toxic black mold a petri dish for growth — panels of gypsum sandwiched between two layers of paper offer a better place to incubate than stone and brick — and in the ’70s, the push for energy efficiency and sealing homes meant less air exchange, only making it easier for mold to bloom. Stories of mold toxicity abound, like that of Melinda Ballard, whose Texas mansion became riddled with spores that made her family sick and spawned a multimillion-dollar lawsuit. That and other instances raised awareness of the dangers of mold, and the industry flourished. 

Today’s weather patterns will only accelerate this growth. Within 24 hours, waterlogged homes can grow enough fungi to cause coughing, watery eyes, and itchy throats. After Katrina, 46% of homes showed mold contamination. Unlike the sizable home-repair and maintenance industry, there’s not a lot of do-it-yourself enthusiasm for breaking down a waterlogged ranch home. Done by experts, a typical mold-remediation job can cost upwards of $3,000, and the cost of clearing an entire house can go up to $30,000. And private equity is taking notice: Threshold Brands, launched by private-equity firm Riverside, purchased the Pennsylvania-based Mold Medics franchise last year and aims for expansion across the continental US. Tim Swackhammer, the former CEO of Mold Medics, told the Franchise Times that the brand’s original store did $1.45 million in revenue in 2022, a 200% increase from 2018, the year it opened. 

Even four years ago, the remediation industry was less consolidated. Last year’s mild winter meant there was a down year for profits, which pulled down valuations and owners’ willingness to sell. Winter is the industry’s busiest season, and fewer cold days meant fewer burst pipes, a common service request, and fewer storms to send tree limbs through windows. But with 2024 shaping up to be busy on the disaster-recovery front — on top of the deadly hurricanes, a colder winter is being predicted — that will likely change. Already this year, a number of investments, like Point 41 Capital Partners’ acquisition of Georgia Water & Fire and Summit Partners’ investment in remediation company Insurcomm, are being discussed as ways to “enter a new and expanded era of growth.”....

....MUCH MORE

Related, October 13 - "Slash and burn: is private equity out of control?"

"How the tiny Caribbean island of Anguilla has turned the AI boom into a digital gold mine"

From the Associated Press, October 15:

The artificial intelligence boom has benefited chatbot makers, computer scientists and Nvidia investors. It’s also providing an unusual windfall for Anguilla, a tiny island in the Caribbean.

ChatGPT’s debut nearly two years ago heralded the dawn of the AI age and kicked off a digital gold rush as companies scrambled to stake their own claims by acquiring websites that end in .ai.

That’s where Anguilla comes in....

....MUCH MORE

"India Unveils $109 Billion Transmission Plan for Green Power"

Although the subcontinental giant has been very serious with the "Make in India" campaign it is going to be difficult to avoid going to world-class transmission cable company Prysmian.*

From Bloomberg via Energy Connects, October 15:

India’s power ministry unveiled a plan to revamp its power grid to accommodate a large renewable expansion through 2032.

The project, estimated to cost 9.15 trillion rupees ($109 billion), will help integrate 500 gigawatts of renewable power by the end of the decade, a more than two-fold increase from now, the ministry said in a statement on Monday.

Transmission constraints have emerged as a key obstacle for the growth of renewable energy the world over, with a spurt in demand causing delayed deliveries and surging prices of grid equipment.

In the US alone, almost 1.6 terawatts of planned renewable power generation projects and more than one terawatt of energy storage are actively seeking connection to the grid, according to the latest data from the research center Berkeley Lab published in April.

To help buffer supply and price shocks, India should foster local manufacturing of critical transmission equipment, Federal Power Secretary Pankaj Agarwal said at a conference in New Delhi on Monday. The cost of equipment is set to rise more than 14% a year from now, he said.

India’s government is leaning on high-voltage direct current lines to connect large renewable farms to cities and industries, as this network helps send power to long distances with minimal losses. The decision though has left solar and wind developers concerned about project delays, as global supplies of the transmission equipment has tightened.... 

....MORE

*PRY:Milan

Chart Image



Our 12-word introduction to July's "Transmission/Grid: Prysmian Has Received A €450 million Contract From The European Investment Bank (PRY:Milan)
Time to string some lines.This is the name for transmission cable. 

If interested see also August's:
Electrical Grid: Today's Word Is "Reconductoring"

"EV chipmaker Wolfspeed set to receive $750 million US chips grant" Stock Jumps (WOLF)

Wolfspeed, formerly Cree, is located in central North Carolina which is culturally and politically a world away from hurricane-Helene-ravaged western North Carolina.

From Reuters, October 15:

Wolfspeed is set to receive $750 million in government grants for its new North Carolina silicon carbide wafer manufacturing plant facility, the U.S. Commerce Department said Tuesday, sending the U.S. chipmaker's shares up 10% before the bell.

The preliminary funding agreement requires Wolfspeed "to take additional steps to strengthen its balance sheet to better protect taxpayer funds", it said.
 
Wolfspeed said investment funds led by Apollo Global Management the Baupost Group, Fidelity Management & Research Company and Capital Group have agreed to provide an additional $750 million of new financing.
 
The company, which counts General Motors and Mercedes-Benz among its customers, makes chips using silicon carbide, a more energy-efficient material than standard silicon, that are used in tasks such as transmitting power from an electric vehicle's batteries to its motors.
 
The department said Wolfspeed's devices are used for renewable energy systems, industrial uses and artificial intelligence applications.
 
Wolfspeed plans to expand its silicon carbide device manufacturing facility in Marcy, New York, and increase its production capacity by nearly 30%. Both projects are part of its previously announced $6 billion capacity expansion plan.
 
The company said the investments support Wolfspeed's long-term growth plans and added it expects to receive $1 billion of cash tax refunds from the "48D" advanced manufacturing tax credit under the Chips and Science Act....
....MUCH MORE

In pre-market trade the stock is up $3.01 (+26.41%) at $14.39.

On the former company (the name-change wasn't just cosmetic, there was a six year transformation):
Why Is The Flashlight On Your Phone So Bright? (plus a Donald Trump lawyer)
They have blue.

And from October 7, 2014:
Creators Of Blue-Light LEDs Win Nobel Prize In Physics
In a May 2008 post, "LEDs: Venture capitalists see the light (CREE)" I mentioned how I came to know LED's:
About ten years ago the best stockpicker I know told me he was looking at CREE. The pitch was "They have 'blue'". I didn't pay much attention, the Nasdaq was starting it's blow-off run, from around 1500 to 5048 in 18 months.
Cree went from $3 to $93....
Blue is important.
These days CREE is back around $33.
From cnet:
Efficient, useful blue-light LED draws Nobel Prize in physics
Three researchers helped revolutionize lighting with vastly better energy efficiency and brightness. The light-emitting diodes also are used in data storage, TVs, and smartphones.....

Well, CREE changed their name a couple years ago, the patents have long expired and the stock (new symbol: WOLF) is at $32.53 after hitting ~$141.87 around the time of the name-change.  

Here's thirty years of stock action via BigCharts:

 

What a long strange trip...

"China is Winning The Race for Ultra-Fast Charging EV Batteries"

From OilPrice, October 10:

  • Chinese battery manufacturers, led by CATL, are introducing new batteries capable of superfast charging, achieving 80% charge in under 10 minutes.
  • China’s dominance in Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery technology, which is safer and more cost-effective than nickel-cobalt alternatives, gives it an edge over competitors like South Korea's LG and Samsung.
  • Despite advancements, concerns about battery lifespan, overheating, and the availability of public charging stations still hinder mass EV adoption.

The world's biggest battery makers are working to make electric vehicles more attractive to hesitant buyers by offering a five-minute charge time for a decent range that would give drivers the same superfast experience as they would have at a gas station.

Currently, the charging times for EVs range anywhere from 20 minutes to 50 or more hours, depending on the charger types and speeds, as well as the vehicle battery capacity.

Some battery makers have recently unveiled batteries capable of charging to 80 percent in fewer than 10 minutes and say that technological advances will soon lead to the five-minute charge that would revolutionize the EV driving experience.     

However, experts point to faster exhaustion of the battery's lifespan in excessive superfast charging and increased risks of battery fires with overheating during the under-10-minute charge.

In addition, the lack of superfast charging is only one of the current anxieties for drivers considering buying an EV. Others include not enough public charging points for a convenient car trip at longer distances, the cost of buying and keeping an EV with uncertainties about incentives, and expensive battery replacement.

The 10-Minute Charge Breakthrough

The Chinese battery manufacturers are leading in the race to superfast charging as their lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are not as susceptible to overheating as the nickel-cobalt chemistry in the batteries of their competitors in South Korea.

China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), the world's biggest battery maker, which supplies batteries to Tesla and BMW, among others, unveiled in April the world's first LFP battery that achieves a range above 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) with 4C superfast charging....

....MUCH MORE

Previously on iron batteries:
Deep Dive: Iron Batteries Crushed The Demand For Cobalt, Reduced The Demand For Nickel
Watch Out Elon, Here Come The Iron Batteries (TSLA)

Tesla's Pivotal Move In Battery Chemistry (TSLA)

"What Tesla’s bet on iron-based batteries means for manufacturers" (TSLA)

 "Tesla will only use iron-based batteries for standard model EVs" (TSLA)

 Batteries: Lithium-Iron may be Competitive With Lithium-Cobalt

Platts' "Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week"

Batteries: ...The Race to Build Europe’s First Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Battery Gigafactory
Lithium-Iron, it's all anyone is talking about....

"Tesla in talks with China's EVE for low-cost battery supply deal -sources" TSLA)
Well I guess Tony Stark Elon Musk is now officially Iron Man. 

One more from 2018—apparently a great year for Iron Age types while I kept writing Bronze Age on my checks. ("Dad, what's a check?"):

Twenty Month Payback for Tesla 100-MW Utility Scale Battery Storage System
Elon (and Panasonic) may have just found another multi-billion dollar business.
Going forward the chemistry probably won't be Lithium ion, maybe molten-salt or iron based, but the fact TSLA can now pitch this kind of payback probably heralds the beginnings of lithium rush 3.0, or at least the promotion thereof....

And on fast charging:
Seven years ago - "DOE to fund $15M for fast electric vehicle charging research":
The fast-charging ability is going to be crucial for mass acceptance of electric vehicles if they are to be anything more than commuter-type transportation that can recharge overnight at home.
 
Watch Out Elon: Sweden's Polestar Extreme Fast Charging EV Prototype Can Add 100 Miles Of Range In Five Minutes

"China's top EV battery maker announced a breakthrough, but top boffin isn't convinced"
 
Watch Out Elon: "Wireless EV Charging Hits Key Benchmark"

Chinese EV battery maker CATL unveils LFP battery with 1,000 km range

It's not just the 620 mile range. The battery can handle extremely fast charging. From Electrek, also April 25:

CATL unveils world’s first LFP battery with 4C ultra-fast charging for 370-mi in 10 mins

"....that can add 370 miles (600 km) range in 10 minutes..."

And the flywheels? From the time CATL introduced the predecessor to the new battery, July 11, 2023:

"CATL announces new battery with 400 kilometer range on 10 minute charge"
Have I ever mentioned the "Flywheel Effect?"
*****
I think we're witnessing the Flywheel Effect in action at, not just China's but the world's largest battery producer.
Incremental advantages lead to overwhelming business success. I don't know if there are 16,000 researchers in the entire rest of the battery biz. If that's the case, how can they catch up to CATL? 

Amazing what being able to hire 16,000 researchers can lead to,

And just for grins and giggles, from Reuters, April 29:

CATL boss visits Elon Musk's Beijing hotel on Tesla CEO's surprise trip

"Chinese Stocks Slide, Intensifying Debate Over Market’s Outlook"

From Bloomberg, October 14/15:

  • CSI 300 falls as much as 2.2% as losses extend in late trade
  • Investors await clarity on size of China’s fiscal stimulus

Losses in Chinese stocks deepened in Tuesday’s afternoon session, intensifying the debate over how much further the market’s stimulus-driven rally can go.

The CSI 300 Index slid more than 2%, on track to erase all of Monday’s 1.9% advance. A gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong slumped more than 3%. The yuan also weakened.

Volatility has gripped the market in recent sessions as investors assess the sustainability of the rebound that began late last month, with the lack of clarity over the size of Beijing’s planned fiscal boost weighing on sentiment. Weak recent economic data, including figures on inflation and trade, has underscored the need for more stimulus.

There’s concern “that the stimulus announced so far just isn’t enough,” said Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management. “We put on a tactical overweight to Chinese equities. We are not necessarily believers that this is a structural shift.”

Tuesday’s price action suggests that investors are unimpressed by a Caixin report that said China may raise 6 trillion yuan ($846 billion) from ultra-long special government bonds over three years as part of its efforts to boost the sputtering economy.

Following the central bank’s easing steps in late September, investors have been clamoring for the government to bolster fiscal spending. Officials promised new measures to support the property sector and hinted at greater government borrowing at a weekend briefing, without giving an amount.

The yuan slid as much as 0.6% to 7.1343 per dollar in the offshore market, the weakest level in about a month....

....MUCH MORE

The CSI 300 Index closed the session down 105.35 (-2.66%) at 3,855.99, the low for the day. Not a good sign.

Also at Bloomberg -  Iron Ore Drops With Leading Miners to Deliver Production Reports

Monday, October 14, 2024

Munich and Bordeaux-based The Exploration Company nears deal to raise €150m in fresh funding

From Sifted.eu, October 14:

SpaceX competitor The Exploration Company nears deal to raise €150m in fresh funding
The Munich and Bordeaux-based startup is building a reusable space capsule 

Spacetech has been a hot topic for investors of late, and one of the buzziest such companies in Europe, Munich and Bordeaux-based The Exploration Company (TEC), is nearing a deal to raise €150m in fresh funding, according to a source with direct knowledge of the fundraise. The new raise would put the company’s post-money valuation at around €450m, they said. Sifted understands the final details of the raise are being ironed out and the amounts could change; London-based Balderton Capital is one of the new investors involved in the round, Sifted understands.

The company, which is building what it says is the first privately-funded reusable space capsule that can fly to space stations and the moon, is expected to close the round imminently, according to two sources. TEC did not return Sifted’s request for comment. Balderton Capital also did not return Sifted’s request for comment. 

The company last raised €40m in February last year, in a Series A round co-led by EQT Ventures. 

Earlier in the summer, TEC’s first capsule made it to space along with French rocket Ariane 6. TEC was also recently one of two companies to win a contract with the European Space Agency (ESA) to provide cargo return services to the International Space Station. TEC was awarded an initial €25m to build a commercial cargo service to low-Earth orbit by 2028. It’s a similar contract to the much larger one Elon Musk’s SpaceX won from NASA over a decade ago that helped boost the company.... 

....MUCH MORE

As we were saying in this morning's "Best Footage Of SpaceX Catching The Super Heavy Booster":  One of the keys to lowering the cost of space flight has been the re-use of the booster rockets....

You have to do it with capsules as well.

"Dozens of pro-Palestinian protesters arrested outside New York Stock Exchange"

"Jewish Voice for Peace" meet Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

From the Associated Press:

About 200 demonstrators protesting Israel’s war in Gaza were arrested in a sit-in outside the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, police said.

The protesters chanted “Let Gaza live!” and ”Up up with liberation, down down with occupation!” in front of the stock exchange’s landmark building in lower Manhattan.

“The reason we’re here is to demand that the U.S. government stop sending bombs to Israel and stop profiting off of Israel’s genocide against Palestinians in Gaza,” said Beth Miller, political director of Jewish Voice for Peace, the group that organized the demonstration. “Because what’s been happening for the last year is that Israel is using U.S. bombs to massacre communities in Gaza while simultaneously weapons manufacturers on Wall Street are seeing their stock prices skyrocket.”

A handful of counterprotesters waved Israeli flags and tried to shout down the pro-Palestinian chants....

....MUCH MORE

Bringing to mind a vignette we retold as the outro from:
Meanwhile in Britain: "Just Stop Oil" Banquet Crashed, Rape Alarms Ascend On High
They have banquets?
***
....Oh does the rape alarm chorus bring back memories, not personal, but of this story:
November 23, 2022
Great Moments In Oil Protest History

I thought we had posted this account but a search of the blog says no.

I failed you.

And though it reads like an Onion parody, this is exactly how it was published. Kudos to the writers.

From The Times, February17, 2005:

By Laura Peek and Liz Chong

Kyoto protest beaten back by inflamed petrol traders

WHEN 35 Greenpeace protesters stormed the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) yesterday they had planned the operation in great detail.

What they were not prepared for was the post-prandial aggression of oil traders who kicked and punched them back on to the pavement. 

“We bit off more than we could chew. They were just Cockney barrow boy spivs. Total thugs,” one protester said, rubbing his bruised skull. “I’ve never seen anyone less amenable to listening to our point of view.”

Another said: “I took on a Texan Swat team at Esso last year and they were angels compared with this lot.” Behind him, on the balcony of the pub opposite the IPE, a bleary-eyed trader, pint in hand, yelled: “Sod off, Swampy.”

Greenpeace had hoped to paralyse oil trading at the exchange in the City near Tower Bridge on the day that the Kyoto Protocol came into force. “The Kyoto Protocol has modest aims to improve the climate and we need huge aims,” a spokesman said.

Protesters conceded that mounting the operation after lunch may not have been the best plan. “The violence was instant,” Jon Beresford, 39, an electrical engineer from Nottingham, said.

“They grabbed us and started kicking and punching. Then when we were on the floor they tried to push huge filing cabinets on top of us to crush us.” When a trader left the building shortly before 2pm, using a security swipe card, a protester dropped some coins on the floor and, as he bent down to pick them up, put his boot in the door to keep it open.

Two minutes later, three Greenpeace vans pulled up and another 30 protesters leapt out and were let in by the others.

They made their way to the trading floor, blowing whistles and sounding fog horns, encountering little resistance from security guards. Rape alarms were tied to helium balloons to float to the ceiling and create noise out of reach. The IPE conducts “open outcry” trading where deals are shouted across the pit. By making so much noise, the protesters hoped to paralyse trading.

But they were set upon by traders, most of whom were under the age of 25. “They were kicking and punching men and women indiscriminately,” a photographer said. “It was really ugly, but Greenpeace did not fight back.”

Mr Beresford said: “They followed the guys into the lobby and kept kicking and punching them there. They literally kicked them on to the pavement.”

Last night Greenpeace said two protesters were in hospital, one with a suspected broken jaw, the other with concussion.

A spokeswoman from IPE said the trading floor reopened at 3.10pm. “The floor was invaded by a small group of protesters,” she said. “Open outcry trading was suspended but electronic trading carried on.”....

....MORE

A couple paragraphs that will live as long as the Internet Archive (and a few other places) remain accessible:

“We bit off more than we could chew. They were just Cockney barrow boy spivs. Total thugs,” one protester said, rubbing his bruised skull. “I’ve never seen anyone less amenable to listening to our point of view.”

Another said: “I took on a Texan Swat team at Esso last year and they were angels compared with this lot.” Behind him, on the balcony of the pub opposite the IPE, a bleary-eyed trader, pint in hand, yelled: “Sod off, Swampy.”

As we've said regarding the tactics used by Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion:

"Is that a man-bun? I haven't seen a man-bun in years?" , wait, sorry, that was a comment on the vandals in Vienna. From the same post:

As with any behavior, if the consequences become painful enough the behavior will stop.

"China QE Next? Caixin Reports Massive Bond Issuance Imminent"

Get as close to that fire hose of liquidity as you can. Become a member of the party, buddy up to the politburo, whatever it takes.

From ZeroHedge, October 14:

Having disappointed the market with a lack of detail on its big stimulus, it appears Chinese authorities have resorted to the usual western practice of leaking details (strawmen) to the press in an effort to measure the market's reaction function.

As we detailed over the weekend, Saturday's much-anticipated press conference by China's Ministry of Finance, where many China watchers were expecting another major stimulus announcement with some hoping for a number as large as 10 trillion rmb, was a dud.

"The policy to support consumption sounds quite weak,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA.

“It is still too early to call an imminent significant turnaround in deflationary pressure or a bottoming-out of the property market, which are the two key issues faced by the Chinese economy.”

Investors and analysts expected China to deploy about 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh fiscal stimulus (and as much as 11 trillion yuan on the high end), including potential subsidies, consumption vouchers and financial support for families with children.

But, in response to the question of just how big the stimmy package will be, MoF's Lan responded that "regarding the specific RMB amount you asked, we will disclose promptly to the general society after the proper legal procedures have been passed."

Investors were displeased with this lack of response and so it appears Beijing has reached out to its media mouthpieces to test the waters.

Caixin Global reports that, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the matter, China may raise 6 trillion yuan from ultra-long special treasury bonds over three years as part of its efforts to buttress the slowing economy through fiscal stimulus.

The funds will be partly used to help local governments resolve their off-the-books debts, according to the sources.

The 6 trillion yuan number sits right in the middle of the range of analysts' expectations, but presumably this 'leak' will be used by authorities to judge what the market demands.

Liu Shijin, a former member of the country’s top political advisory body, recently advocated for a stimulus package of more than 10 trillion yuan - roughly one-tenth of the nation’s annual GDP - to be implemented over the coming one to two years.

He said the amount is appropriate for an economy as big as China’s. A bigger tool is needed to pry a bigger stone, he told Caixin, comparing his plan to China’s 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package during the global financial crisis in 2008.

Of course, what this massive debt-financed stimulus will produce initially is higher rates - something that will crush the very markets (housing) that the CCP is trying to bailout.

What does that mean? Simple... China QE is inevitable to tamp down any adverse bond-market reaction.

And, as we detailed previously, that is exactly what the markets are hoping for.

....MORE

Switzerland's Best: Piz Daint has now been replaced by the Alps Supercomputer

The Piz Daint supercomputer holds a special place in our memories. Besides being the computer the Swiss from time to time loaned to CERN, its speed was later accelerated by the use of Nvidia GPUs. Here's a quick note from April 2016:

CERN Will Be Using NVIDIA Graphics Processors to Accelerate Their Supercomputer (NVDA)

Our standard NVDA boilerplate: We don't do much with individual stocks on the blog but this one is special.

$36.28 last, passing the stock's old all time high from 2007, $36.00. [adjust for 40:1 stock splits, that's 90 cents on the current $139.00 stock. We had started touting it at $25.00/0.625 a year earlier]

In 2017 Oak Ridge National Laboratory is scheduled to complete their newest supercomputer powered by NVIDIA Graphics Processing Unit chips and retake the title of World's Fastest Computer for the United States.

In the meantime NVDA is powering AI deep learning and autonomous vehicles and virtual reality and some other stuff.....

And from Swissinfo, October 3:

Swiss Alps supercomputer to leverage AI for science

Switzerland has rebooted its supercomputer network back into the global premier league of data processing. But who gets to use the sixth most powerful supercomputer in the world and what does it hope to achieve? 

Mapping the universe, sorting health facts from conspiracy theories and more precise climate modelling are just some use cases for Switzerland’s Alps supercomputer. But there are no immediate plans to allow private companies to tap into its resources.

Switzerland’s previous supercomputer, Piz Daint, has been crunching numbers for scientific research projects since 2013. It has served, among others, the Swiss meteorological service, the federal materials testing institute and the Paul Scherrer Institute of engineering sciences.

Piz Daint has now been replaced by the Alps Supercomputer, which will have 20 times the computing power of its predecessor when fully operational and the muscle to exploit the potential of artificial intelligence (AI).

It’s also the world’s sixth most powerful computer, with only the United States, Finland and Japan having more powerful machines. This has restored Switzerland’s supercomputing capabilities compared to other countries, which had been lost when Piz Daint was overtaken by more powerful machines around the world.

Access limited to science projects
But this does not mean 20 times more researchers will have access to the powerful computing network, which stretches over three sites in Switzerland and one in Italy. Some 1,800 researchers took advantage of the Piz Daint supercomputer and, so far, 1,000 have signed up to the new Alps network.

“We cannot serve a million researchers on this system,” Professor Thomas Schulthess, head of the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS), told SWI swissinfo.ch. For a start, the CHF100 million ($118 million) supercomputer, with an annual operating budget pf CHF37 million, is funded out of the public purse. “We are a subsidised infrastructure, and subsidies don’t scale. We must be very disciplined in how the infrastructure is used,” said Schulthess....

....MUCH MORE

After the Piz Daint NVDA upgrade it went from 8th fastest to 3rd fastest computer in the world:
Supercomputers "The 49th TOP500 List was published June 20, 2017 in Frankfurt, Germany."

Best Footage Of SpaceX Catching The Super Heavy Booster

One of the keys to lowering the cost of space flight has been the re-use of the booster rockets. 

Here's Elon Musk on Friday:

The headline at Reuters October 13, after the flight: 

SpaceX catches giant Starship booster in fifth flight test

SpaceX in its fifth Starship test flight on Sunday returned the rocket's towering first stage booster back to its Texas launch pad for the first time using giant mechanical arms, achieving another novel engineering feat in the company's push to build a reusable moon and Mars vehicle.

The rocket's first stage "Super Heavy" booster lifted off at 7:25 a.m. CT (1225 GMT) from SpaceX's Boca Chica, Texas launch facilities, sending the Starship second stage rocket toward space before separating at an altitude of roughly 70 km (40 miles) to begin its return to land - the most daring part of the test flight....
And at The Economist, also October 13:
Elon Musk’s SpaceX has achieved something extraordinary
If SpaceX can land and reuse the most powerful rocket ever made what can’t it do? 

The catch, via DogeDesigner

There was a learning curve to ascend:


But in April 2019 people started to think there might be something to this approach:

"Sun Shines on Fed ‘Doomsday Book’"

"Clip and save for future use." 
 
That's what newspapers used to advise regarding their handy household hints. 
(Dad, what's a newspaper?)

From the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 11, 2023:

Through a simple Freedom of Information Act request, I obtained the mysterious document.

The so-called Doomsday Book, an internal document used to guide the Federal Reserve’s actions during emergencies, has long been the subject of intrigue and suspicion. Largely a compilation of legal opinions, the book has been a key resource for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for decades, allowing it to play a unique and oversize role during financial crises. No other regional Federal Reserve bank has such a resource.

The book is a living document that records pivotal decisions made during times of financial distress. It played a crucial role in then New York Fed President Timothy Geithner’s decision to rescue Bear Stearns from bankruptcy in 2008.

A few details about the book have dribbled out in the past, notably in 2014 during the Starr International Co. v. U.S. trial, in which a group of former equity investors in

sued the government over the terms of the firm’s 2008 bailout. The Journal reported that David Boies, a lawyer for the plaintiff, had obtained three copies of the book, “likely under subpoena.” But it remained under seal and “Mr. Boies was careful not to quote from any of the versions of the book or reveal specifics about what the books contained.”

A prior Freedom of Information Act request to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for the book was rejected. For reasons unknown to me, however, I was recently able to acquire a copy of the book through a simple Freedom of Information request to the New York Fed. Only names were redacted.

The document reveals a fascinating history of diverging perspectives on the Federal Reserve’s emergency powers. Instead of adhering strictly to clear legislative boundaries to justify its actions during financial crises, the central bank appears to ground many of its decisions in the New York Fed’s belief in the Fed’s discretionary authority. It relies on precedent for many of its actions, without explicit congressional authorization in some instances.

This approach implies that establishing clear legislative boundaries for the Fed might be a futile endeavor because the central bank—or at least the legal team at its dominant member bank—apparently believes it can rely on precedent to justify virtually any emergency action.

The book also exposes an apparent split in perspective between the New York Fed and the Fed Board of Governors. At the core of this disagreement are differing interpretations of the central bank’s legal powers, particularly Sections 13(3) and 14(b)(1) of the Federal Reserve Act, which allow the Fed to take extraordinary actions in financial crises. The New York Fed, wary of the complexities of financial markets and the unpredictable nature of crises, embraces a flexible interpretation of these laws. The board adopts a more cautious approach that underscores the importance of adhering closely to legal limits.

This difference in perspective comes to the fore in the document’s history of the Fed’s response during the 2008 financial crisis. The New York Fed emerged as the Fed’s firefighting department, urging a more proactive stance, even suggesting that its powers extend to rescuing municipalities. The board, on the other hand, tried to ensure that Fed actions remained within well-defined legal confines. The book suggests that over time, the board has tended to yield to the New York Fed’s legal arguments during crises, indicating a shift toward a more flexible approach....

....MUCH MORE

Capital Markets: "Dollar Firm, China Briefing Light on Details, and Its Data Remain Poor"

Our China bogey, the Shanghai - Shenzhen CSI 300 index closed Monday up 1.91% at 3,961.34:

Today's upmoves (CSI 300 up 1.5% etc.) almost feel like a collective sigh of relief from speculators that the MoF briefing didn't go horribly wrong. As the Rock man told Oblio in the Land of Point...

This followed Friday's 2.76% decline about which we thought - as intro to Friday's "Capital Markets: 'Tomorrow's China Briefing Did Not Prevent the Continued Slide in Chinese Stocks Today'"

Nope. And after the head of China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) declined trader's pleas to inject stimulus directly into their P&L statements a lot of big money decided it is not worth the potential upside to be caught long over the weekend should the Finance Minister also fail to hook-up the sweet, sweet stimmy IVs.

So here we are again. From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

Overview:  The lack of details from China's fiscal briefing, the soft CPI (and deeper PPI deflation), and a smaller than expected trade surplus did not prevent Chinese equities from advancing (CSI 300 +1.9%). Industrial commodities, such as oil, copper, iron ore, are mixed. Among the G10 currencies, the Australian dollar often acts as the China proxy is off more than 0.25%. The US dollar is mostly firmer, through mostly consolidating. The Canadian dollar is a notable exception. It remains under pressure and has fallen to new two-month lows. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with Asia Pacific currencies, including the Chinese yuan are softer.

Japanese markets were closed for Health Day, but outside of Hong Kong and New Zealand, most of the equity markets in the region advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1% last week. It was the first back-to-back weekly decline in two months. Europe's Stoxx 600 is flattish today after rising 0.65% last week. US index futures are firm. European benchmark 10-year yields are mixed. The 10-year UK Gilt yield is at a new three-month high, poking above 4.22%. German and French yields are steady, while the peripheral yields are mostly softer. Gold is firm near $2660 in the European morning, having been near $2667 earlier in the day. It has not closed above $2660 since October 1. It looks poised to challenge the record-high set late September near $2686. November WTI is off more than 2% near $73.75. It remains in Thursday's range (~$73.25-$76.25) amid conflicting signals (disappointment in some quarters over the lack of details in China's briefing and elevated Middle East tensions with US sending an advanced missile defense system and associated troops, which is understood as a sign of preparation for an Iranian counter-strike).

Asia Pacific
China is dominating the news today....

....MUCH MORE

Sunday, October 13, 2024

"Inside China's bid to build sway over global metals pricing"

From Reuters, October 13/14:

  • ShFE aims to rival LME pricing benchmarks
  • Plan hinges on lining up international metals warehouses
  • ShFE copper futures volume drops as US COMEX gains share
  • Yuan currency controls may deter international investors
  • State intervention fears also pose challenge

China is locking in steps to shape the pricing of the vast quantities of industrial metals it produces and consumes, with moves to attract foreign firms to trade on Shanghai's futures exchange, which would eventually fragment global markets.

After buying mining assets around the world over the past two decades to secure metals needed for industrialisation and more recently to meet its carbon emissions targets, China now wants a bigger say in how prices of those metals are determined.
 
But it has lost market share in metals futures trading and needs to persuade international investors to use the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), according to interviews with more than 10 brokers, traders, analysts, risk managers and consultants with direct knowledge of ShFE's plans.
 
If successful, the push would help give Shanghai's contracts benchmark status and upend the system for reference prices of industrial metals in place since 1877 when the London Metal Exchange (LME) started life above a hat shop in London.
 
ShFE benchmarks would eliminate the need for Chinese firms to link their physical contracts to LME prices and create a need for foreigners to trade on ShFE to influence reference prices in their contracts, shifting market sway from the west to China.
In recent meetings, the exchange told industry players the plan is high on its agenda and was likely to be put in place soon, but it did not discuss deadlines, two people said....
....MUCH MORE
 
Earlier:
"Commodities Steady as China Pledges More Support for Growth"

"Commodities Steady as China Pledges More Support for Growth"

Today's upmoves (CSI 300 up 1.5% etc.) almost feel like a collective sigh of relief from speculators that the MoF briefing didn't go horribly wrong. As the Rock man told Oblio in the Land of Point:

"Say babe , isn't nuthin' pointless about this game. The thing is, you see what you wanna see - and you hear what you wanna hear. You dig? Did you ever see Paris?"
"No."
"Did you ever see New Delhi?"
"No."
"Well that's it. You see - what you want to see and you hear - what you want to hear."
And with that, the rock man fell soundly asleep...

Words to incorporate into your Weltanschauung, words to live by. 

From Bloomberg via Malaysia's The Edge, October 13/14:

Commodities prices steadied after China promised greater support for its stuttering economy.

Although the finance ministry stopped short of unveiling concrete spending plans for fiscal stimulus at a closely watched briefing on Saturday, investors were reassured by its pledges to shore up growth. They include more help for the crisis-wracked property sector — a keystone of commodities demand in China — and heavily indebted local authorities, as well as hints that government borrowing will be expanded.

Iron ore futures in Singapore reversed an early decline to rise 0.4% to US$106.60 (RM457.69) a tonne in Singapore as of 10:02am. local time. Prices of the steel-making material have been on a roller-coaster this year, climbing above US$140 a tonne in January, before sinking below US$90 last month.

The copper market has followed a similar trajectory, hitting a record north of US$11,000 a tonne in May before retreating. The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange pared losses to trade 0.9% lower at US$9,707 a tonne. Brent crude oil futures fell 1.5%, after dropping as much as 2% earlier. China is the world’s biggest importer of all three commodities.

The ministry showed “a very positive commitment” to following up on previously announced policies, said Li Xuezhi, head of Chaos Ternary Research Institute. “We are relatively bullish,” he said.

Metals have rallied in recent weeks, after Beijing launched a barrage of monetary interventions to support growth. But commodities investors have clamoured for further measures on the fiscal side of the equation, which has a more direct impact on consumption of materials, and is needed to replace demand lost to China’s prolonged real estate slump.

As such, the government’s focus on plans to right the property sector will be welcomed by markets, not only through demand for raw materials but because housing is such an important store of wealth for Chinese people.

Housing crisis
The housing crisis has of necessity shrunk the sector’s importance to Chinese steel mills, with construction accounting for 24% of consumption in 2023, from 42% in 2011, according to mining giant BHP Group Ltd. Machinery-making by contrast has gone from 20% to 30% in that time, while steel exports have risen sharply over the past two years....

"Slash and burn: is private equity out of control?"

Yes.*

Absolutely first rate reporting from The Guardian, October 10:

From football clubs to water companies, music catalogues to care homes, private equity has infiltrated almost every facet of modern life in its endless search to maximise profits

Whenever I ponder the enormity of the multitrillion-dollar industry known as private equity, I picture the lavish parties thrown by Stephen Schwarzman – and then I think of the root canals. Schwarzman is the billionaire impresario of Blackstone, the world’s most colossal private equity firm. In August, he hosted a 200-person housewarming party at his $27m (£21m) French neoclassical mansion in Newport, Rhode Island. It was a modest affair compared to the grand soiree he threw himself at his Palm Beach, Florida, estate for his 70th birthday, in 2017. That black-tie bash was itself a sequel to his multimillion-dollar 60th, in 2007, which became a symbol of the sort of Wall Street excess that led to the global financial crisis. The Palm Beach party, which some reports say cost more than $10m, featured Venetian gondolas, Arabian camels, Mongolian acrobats and a giant cake in the shape of a Chinese temple. “Brilliantly stimulating” was the billionaire industrialist David Koch’s review. Gwen Stefani serenaded Schwarzman as Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump and several members of her father’s cabinet looked on. It was a world in miniature, ruled over by a modern Croesus – the perfect symbol for a form of money-making that has infiltrated almost every facet of modern life.

Preschools and funeral homes, car washes and copper mines, dermatologists and datacentres – private equity is anywhere and everywhere that money changes hands. If it can in any way be marketed or monetised, private equity firms have bought it – from municipal water supplies to European football clubs to the music catalogue of the rock group Queen. By some estimates, these firms now control more than $13tn invested in more than 50,000 companies worldwide. “We cannot overestimate the reach of private equity across the global economy,” Sachin Khajuria, a former partner at Apollo Global Management, which manages half a trillion dollars in assets, wrote in 2022.

It’s not just that hundreds of millions of us interact with at least one private equity-owned business every day. More and more people, especially the relatively poor, may live almost their entire lives in systems owned by one or another private equity firm: financiers are their landlords, their electricity providers, their ride to work, their employers, their doctors, their debt collectors. Private equity firms and related asset managers “increasingly own the physical as well as financial world around us,” the scholar Brett Christophers writes. “All of our lives are now part of their investment portfolios.” This is true not only in the US, where private equity has been on a spree since the late 1970s, but increasingly in the rest of the world, too. In recent years, private equity firms have spent hundreds of billions of dollars snaffling up businesses from Canada to Cambodia, Australia to the UK.

As private equity has spread, so have dire warnings about its effects. The vultures and vampires of the industry have been decried almost everywhere in the media that isn’t already owned by private equity. In the span of a single week last year, two major and almost identically titled books were published in the US – Plunder: Private Equity’s Plan to Pillage America and These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs – and Wrecks – America. Private equity is “greed wrapped in the American flag of efficiency, looting justified by solid investment returns”, the authors of Plunderers write. “The marauders answer to almost no one.”

This is where the baby root canals come in, as a grotesque epitome of the industry’s modus operandi. According to multiple media investigations and a US Senate inquiry, in order to drive up profits, private equity-controlled dental chains have induced children to undergo multiple unnecessary root canals. “I have watched them drilling perfectly healthy teeth multiple times a day every day,” a dental assistant in a private equity-owned practice told reporters. One child even died as a result. To its many critics, private equity is a shining example of “asshole capitalism”, but baby root canals make one feel even that label is a touch too kind.

Unsurprisingly, practitioners of private equity see their industry differently. Yes, they admit, there have been a few bad actors, and yes, a handful of bad deals, but by and large private equity firms are not full of profiteering sociopaths merrily making the world a crappier place. Rather, they’re the necessary fertilisers of growth and innovation, using their superior talents to rid companies of bad management, rejuvenate sluggish businesses and grow the economic pie so we can all continue to enjoy the relative prosperity of our developed societies. It’s just capitalism doing what capitalism does best. They call it “value creation”.

What’s more, they say they’re providing amazing returns to their investors, who might well include you, dear reader, if you happen to have a pension. “Hopefully we can get the news out there that, actually, private equity’s been a great thing for America,” Stephen Pagliuca, the billionaire co-chairman of Bain Capital, said at Davos in 2020. David Rubenstein, the billionaire founder of the Carlyle Group, another of the world’s largest private equity firms, goes further. “Private equity,” he likes to say, “is the highest calling of mankind.”


Whatever good or ill there is in private equity is not just about greedy sinners or enterprising saints. Whether acquiring a bakery that makes chocolate chip cookies or the nursing home where your grandmother is living out her days, private equity relies on the same basic business model: the leveraged buyout. These transactions – which account for roughly three out of every four dollars of all private equity deals – are frequently compared to house flipping: you buy a business using a ton of debt, or leverage, the way you buy a house with a mortgage; then you try to sell it for a tidy profit after you replace the carpets (or, better still, the market goes up). Unlike buying a house, however, the debt isn’t the responsibility of the buyer; it sits on the balance sheet of the acquired company. As strange as it sounds, it’s sort of like the company is forced to take out a loan to buy itself....

*As noted in the intro to January 2024's "US private equity portfolio company bankruptcies spiked to record high in 2023" (and a hundred other places):

Following on yesterday's "The Guy Who Wrote “An Inconvenient Fact: Private Equity Returns & the Billionaire Factory” Does Not Genuflect At The Alter Of Bain, Carlyle and Blackstone

Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference between a bankruptcy bust-out/bleed-out fraud and private equity.

Also between private equity with its internal rate of return, IRR, and piracy with its eerily similar Arrgh, but that's a whole 'nother post.

Or: Former CIA director Petraeus joins KKR backed security firm"

Um, why is private equity backing a "security firm"?
There aren't any assets to strip, or leverage before a bankruptcy bust-out.....
*****
....At least MI6's former top spook, Sir Richard B. Dearlove, went the traditional somewhat-murky-African-extractive-industry route, but PE backed security companies? That just seems creepy.

And: Private Equity: "having your industry compared to a Ponzi scheme is less than ideal"

.... My question going forward is: "Should times get really tough will we see a return to the asset stripping/bankruptcy bust-out model?"

Wait. Did I say that out loud? I meant "will we see a semi-permanent step-change to lower valuations that trap capital?"
Yeah that's it, that's what I meant. 

And related:

From June 2019's The Hidden Risks In Shorting Dogs:

One of the scariest concerns when shorting non-frauds in a bull market is that the very things that make a company a laggard and seemingly offer a tempting short—or the short leg of a pair trade—are things that attract the private equity vultures. This is why, for 2 1/2 years when talking about the mess that American packaged foods had become, we would obliquely, and sometimes not so obliquely warn:
March 7, 2017
M&A In European Food
I'm not sure that consumer packaged goods is the area to be in, at least not in the U.S. and not based on names like Kellogg or General Mills.
For a quarter-century those manufacturers ratcheted prices as though they were tobacco companies but people find it easier to give up their Cheerios than their cigarettes.
The managements milked that approach for pretty much all it was worth so, as operating entities, they aren't all that attractive but someone will decide the only thing left to do is to asset strip or dividend recap the life out of the former cash cows.
Top o'the market to ya.... 

 Speaking of the Private Equity model, here is sheer genius from William Banzai, last seen in
"...Since 2006, Private Equity Has Produced Only S&P 500 Returns While Reaping $400+ Billion in Fees"

The discussion of hydraulic models of the economy in this morning's "If The FT's Izabella Kaminska Doesn't Start Posting To Alphaville...." reminded me of William Banzai's take on the Phillips model but with bonus receptacles and fee siphons:
PM


Genius squared.from a post on GE's Mark I nuclear reactor at ZeroHedge!
***
Compare/contrast with the original:
"The computer model that once explained the British economy (and the new one that explains the world)"
From the New York Times:

Two weeks ago, while visiting Cambridge University, I arranged to have lunch with my friend Allan McRobie. He’s a professor of engineering, so it seemed a bit strange that he kept insisting we meet at the department of applied economics. “There’s something there you’ve really got to see,” he said in his Liverpudlian lilt. “It’s utterly fab. Just brilliant. The Phillips machine — it uses water to predict the economy.”...MORE
Schematic diagram 
Schematic diagram of the Phillips machine. (Click to enlarge.)

See also Warren:
Berkshire Hathaway as Idealized Private Equity
We quoted Buffett on P.E. in last month's "How Vulture Capitalists Ate Toys 'R' Us", updated below....

****

The quote was:
And then there's 2011's "The Porn Shop Operators Strike Again: Harry & David files for bankruptcy";

``You can sell it to Berkshire, and we'll put it in the Metropolitan Museum; it'll have a wing all by itself; it'll be there forever,'' he says at the February meeting.  
``Or you can sell it to some porn shop operator, and he'll take the painting and he'll make the boobs a little bigger and he'll stick it up in the window, and some other guy will come along in a raincoat, and he'll buy it.''
-Warren Buffett 
On why a business may prefer selling to Berkshire Hathaway rather than a private equity firm.

I know Warren is talking down the bidding pressure that PE firms might put on the price he has to pay for privately held businesses but looking at his comments on PE over the years it's more than that:
He actually loathes private equity and its practitioners....

And so many more.