Readers who have been with us for a while know all about this stuff but because I like simple graphics there will be a repost as the outro.
From The Watchers, March 2:
The final polar vortex collapse of the 2024-25 winter season is forecast to occur in mid-March as a strong stratospheric warming event develops, potentially leading to significant weather disruptions across the Northern Hemisphere.
3D rendition of polar vortex split - March 13, 2025. Image credit: stratobserve
An analysis by Andrej Flis of Severe Weather Europe (SWE) indicates that the second polar vortex collapse of 2025 is expected to occur in mid-March. This follows the previous collapse in mid-February, which brought record-breaking cold temperatures across the United States.
This event is expected to be much stronger than the previous one and will mark the final collapse of the season. The next polar vortex in the stratosphere will not form until the 2025-26 winter season....
....MUCH MORE including graphs, video and further discussion.
And from a December 2019 post, a remarkably similar effect:
So You Want to Be a Natural Gas Trader?
...As we've been saying for a couple months, Jet Stream!
"The market is trading off the cold snap and the cold snap is not going to last" because we are currently experiencing a meridional (north - south) jet stream that progresses in stately fashion from California to New York, alternating cold and warm:
The meridional pattern can set up a nice long-then-short-then long sequence in natural gas futures trading.
Except when it dips too far and you have Texas guzzling gas like Minnesota. Or if the pattern stalls and the warmth is delayed.
Or if it changes to a zonal pattern.
The zonal jet stream pattern keeps the cold air on the north side of the big wind (British Airways 747 Reached Speeds of 825 mph Riding Jet Stream New York to London) allowing the cold to intensify whereas the meridional pattern allows the cold air to slide down to more populated areas of North America and Europe which gives rise to the misuse of the term polar vortex and makes natural gas traders (if they are nimble) some money.
The thing to be aware of with the meridional flow is the whole pattern moves west to east, meaning the places that get the frigid blast then feel the warm air that follows the cold dips.
