Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Capital Markets: "Japanese Fireworks Continue as the Market Turns to the FOMC"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The FOMC meeting is today's highlight but the drama in Japan continues to rivet the market. The Ministry of Finance warned of the risk of material intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the BOJ bought bonds in an unscheduled operation a day after its downgraded the 1.0% cap to a reference rate, whatever that means. The yen is trading with a slightly firmer bias. The Swiss franc is also trading a little firmer, but the other G10 currencies are a bit softer. Most emerging market currencies are lower too. Gold, which posted a bearish outside down day yesterday, extended its losses to about $1975 before stabilizing.

Japan's equity indices jumped 2.4%-2.6% today. Most bourses in the region rose, though not Hong Kong. Note that South Korea reported the first increase in exports since late last year and the Kospi rallied 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is firmer, posting its third consecutive session of gains. US index futures are heavier, paring yesterday's gains. European benchmark yields are 3-5 bp higher today, but the 10-year US Treasury yield is a couple basis points lower near 4.90%. Details of next week's quarterly refunding will be announced today and there is an expectation of larger offerings. December WTI fell to near four-week lows yesterday near $80.75 a barrel. It has stabilized and trading near $82.

Asia Pacific
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI fell below the 50 boom/bust level to 49.5 in October from 50.6 in September
. While this is weaker than expected, and the pattern this year where the first month of a quarter is sub-50 and then the Caixin manufacturing PMI grows....

....MUCH MORE