Monday, November 20, 2023

Bayer AG's Crash: Analysts React

Following on "Wounded Giant: Bayer Has Problems Beyond Monsanto Jury Awards". 

From ZeroHedge:

Bayer shares in Germany experienced their largest-ever intra-day crash, tumbling as much as 21% to lows not seen since the Great Financial Crisis, following a double whammy of news....
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....Here's what other Wall Street analysts are saying about the crisis at Bayer (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

JPMorgan, Richard Vosser (neutral)

  • Calls asundexian stroke-prevention trial failure a "significant disappointment," removing an asset possibly worth as as much as €11.7 a share
  • Says failure makes it "even harder for Pharma business to grow following the Xarelto and Eylea patent expiries in 2026/2027 and 2025"
  • On Roundup trial, says that while damages are likely to be reduced in appeals process, it highlights Bayer "still has work to do" related to remaining Roundup litigation

Barclays, Emily Field (equal weight)

  • Cuts recommendation on Bayer to equal weight as a consequence of asundexian trial failure as drug was key reason in April 2022 upgrade to overweight; says news comes as "total surprise"
  • "Removing asundexian from our model suggests significant challenges ahead for the company's Pharma business," Field writes; does, however, flag there is potential for strategic optionality ahead of Bayer's March 5 capital markets day

Citi, Peter Verdult (buy)

  • Sees a "double whammy" for the Bayer investment case 
  • Says trial setback will "also likely raise concerns about Healthcare being able to return to top line revenue growth post Xarelto/Eyelea"
  • Flags that US rival asset from Bristol-Myers Squibb and Johnson & Johnson is currently in late-stage Phase III trial investigating milvexian and risk of stroke...

....MUCH MORE