Tuesday, December 20, 2022

Australian Government Forecasts For Lithium Prices: Up, Then Down

Then probably up again though the report didn't go out that far.

From Mining.com, December 19:

Australia expects sharp lithium price pullback in 2024

In its quarterly report released on Monday, the Australian government said it expects spodumene prices to rise from an average of $2,730 a tonne in 2022 (from just $598 in 2021) to average $4,010 a tonne in 2023 as record spot prices feed into contracts. However, 2024 will see a softening in the market to $3,130 in 2024.

Lithium hydroxide prices are set to follow a similar pattern and are expected to lift from $17,370 a tonne in 2021 to $39,900 in 2022 and $61,200 in 2023, moderating to an annual average of $48,500 in 2024. 

Rapid price movements and the relative immaturity of the market will likely lead to ongoing uncertainty, according to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, adding that should supply concerns ease prices could fall more quickly: 

“While expansions to production are already underway in Australia and overseas, there are long lead times for lithium mine and brine operations. Moreover, the potential for delays in bringing such large volumes of lithium into production, mean risks remain of persistent supply shortages over the next few years.

....MUCH MORE

For comparison here is the U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Commodities Summary: Lithium, 2022 (new one next month, I'm all atingle)

And here is Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's "Lithium prices hit record high as market pricing takes hold – 2022 in review", December 14.