From public radio's WUSF (University of South Florida) Tampa, August 22L
The Atlantic is experiencing a below-average level of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, known as ACE, for this period of the hurricane season. According to Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, as of August 26 the ACE will fall to just 13% of the average value of the past 50 years.
ACE is a metric that takes into account the intensity and the longevity of a storm. It is not the same as the total number of storms in a season, but rather the combined energy that the storms put out. McNoldy's tweet illustrates how low this season's ACE falls is compared to the historical average. So far, the Atlantic hurricane season has seen only three named storms, and they contributed "almost nothing" to the ACE value. As of publishing, low activity is forecasted for the next five days. "By the end of August," McNoldy said, "it's becoming a noteworthy low value."
This is getting to be extremely unusual. It looks unlikely that there will be a named storm in the Atlantic through the next 5 days. As of Aug 26, the ACE will fall to 13% of the average of the past 50 years. The years since 1970 with lower ACE through then were 1988, 1984, 1977. pic.twitter.com/Th9LmIZzw3
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 21, 2022
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And for folks keeping track, here is the average development calendar via FOX Weather, August 18:
Typical Atlantic Basin Development Calendar
Source: National Hurricane Center
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Finally, from the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, an hour ago:
Hurricane forecasters watching one system in Atlantic, and another system expected to emerge
