Thursday, February 6, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report February 6, 2020 Meh

The bulls are running out of winter and unless the producers can find buyers in Europe for LNG, Henry Hub could see $1.70 before spring.
And another cool spring akin to 2019 and you could see a half-dozen major bankruptcies among the E&P folks (looking at you EQT, CHK)

First up, the expectations from FX Empire:
...The price action suggests that traders are expecting a lighter-than-average withdrawal. According to Natural Gas Intelligence, estimates have been pointing to a withdrawal in the upper 120s Bcf to lower 130s for this week’s EIA report.

Bloomberg is looking for a range of 122 Bcf to 134 Bcf, with a median pull of 129 Bcf. Reuters forecasts a median draw of 131 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal predicts a draw as low as 109 Bcf, but its average is 127 Bcf. Meanwhile, the Natural Gas Intelligence model predicts a 125 Bcf withdrawal.
In 2019, the EIA recorded a 228 Bcf withdrawal for the similar period, while the five-year average withdrawal is 143 Bcf....MORE
And from the Energy Information Administration:
for week ending January 31, 2020   |   Released: February 6, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.  
... Working gas in storage was 2,609 Bcf as of Friday, January 31, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 137 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 615 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 199 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,410 Bcf. At 2,609 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range....

Finally the price action on what, in days of yore, would have been considered a bullish report.
From the CME :

Up 2.4 cents at 1.885.