Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Chinese Government Mouthpiece: "China's Q1 growth might be above 5%"

Global Times, even more than People's Daily and Xinhua is used to communicate outward the Party and the Government line.
We are using their Coronavirus Update page on the blogroll at right.

From Global Times:
Quick rebound expected after epidemic contained 
Will China's economic growth fall below 5 percent in the first quarter of 2020 and mark the coun-try's weakest quarterly growth since 1992? It's more likely that the world's second-largest economy will not fall below 5 percent despite the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, according to a new GT Source poll.

Nine out of 20 well-known Chinese economists and market watchers polled by GT Source rejected the possibility of an economic expansion below 5 percent for the first quarter, while eight believed there was a chance economic growth could slip below that level. The remaining few reckoned it was too difficult to make predictions or stressed that it made more sense to work out supportive measures rather than habitually underscoring a growth target.

Participants included Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at the Industrial Bank; Xu Gao, chief econo-mist with the Bank of China International; Hong Hao, managing director and head of research at BOCOM International; Sheng Songcheng, a former central bank official; and Wan Zhe, chief econ-omist with the China National Gold Group Corp.

They generally expected the novel coronavirus to be a short-lived black swan event, though they also urged swift actions to contain the spread of the outbreak and help virus-struck businesses.

The economy's expansion is unlikely to fall below 5 percent in the first quarter from the prior year and it is estimated to grow about 5.7 percent for the whole year, said Lu....