Friday, August 10, 2018

USDA World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates: Bin-Busting Soybean and Corn Production (WASDE)

From the USDA's Office of the Chief Economist, August 10:
The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is lower supplies, greater use, and reduced stocks. Wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and durum production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Projected food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 970 million based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. This would be record food use, surpassing 2017/18, which was also revised higher. Projected wheat exports are raised 50 million bushels to 1,025 million on substantially lower exportable supplies for the EU and limited additional export capacity of several other major competitors.

Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 935 million, down 15 percent from last year. The projected season -average farm price is up $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint with the range at $4.60 to $5.60. World 2018/19 wheat supplies are reduced this month by 7.1 million tons, primarily on lower EU production. Continued drought conditions in several n orthern European count ries, most notably Germany, resulted in lower production, down 7.5 million tons to 137.5 million. This would be the lowest EU wheat production since 2012/13. Russia’s wheat production is increased 1.0 million tons to 68.0 million on continued favorable conditions for spring wheat. Projected global 2018/19 trade is lower, mainly on reduced EU exports, which are down 4.5 million tons to 23.0 million, the lowest in six years. Russia’s exports are increased 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million; Russia is projected to remain the leading world wheat exporter for the second consecutive year. Global imports are lowered for several countries with the largest reduction for Algeria. Projected 2018/19 world consumption is 5.1 million tons lower, primarily on reduced feed use in the EU and Russia. Global ending stocks are down 1.9 million tons to 259.0 million, down 5 percent from last year’s record. 
This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, up 356 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey- based corn yield forecast, at a record 178.4 bushels per acre, is 4.4 bushels higher than last month’s trend -based projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, and South Dakota are forecast to have yields above a year ago. The yield for Iowa is unchanged relative to last year, while Missouri, Minnesota, and Kansas are forecast below a year ago. Feed and residual use is up based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports are raised reflec ting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of reduced competition from Brazil. With supply rising faster than use, ending stocks are raised 132 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season- average corn price received by producers is down 20 cents at the midpoint at a range of $3.10 to $4.10 per bushel.
U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 135. 6 million tons, up 7. 7 million from last month mainly due to a higher soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 4,586 million bushel s, up 276 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 88.9 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The first survey -based soybean yield forecast of 51.6 bushels per acre is 3.1 bushels above last month and 2.5 bushels above last year. As higher production more than offsets lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2018/19 are projected at a record 5,040 million bushels, 5 percent above last month. With larger supplies, crush and exports are raised 15 and 20 million bushels respectively. Ending stocks are projected at 785 million bushels, up 205 million from last month. The U.S. season- average soybean price for 2018/19 is forecast at $8.90 per bushel at the midpoint , down 35 cents from last month. The soybean meal price forecast at $295 to $335 per short ton, down $20 at the midpoint. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound. U.S. soybean changes for 2017/18 include higher exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 2 5 million bushels to 2,110 million on strong export sales and shipments through July. Crush is raised 10 million bushels to a record 2,040 million on strong soybean meal exports. With increased crush and exports, soybean ending stocks are reduced 35 million bushels to 430 million...
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Even wheat is getting hit: