Monday, August 20, 2018

Two possibilities for the S&P 500’s melt-up phase (your love keeps lifting me)

As readers who have been with us for a while know, we've taken as our target for the market the low end of Jeremy Grantham's fever-dream melt-up scenario (since recanted) of S&P 500 to 3000—and more likely, the 3300 upper end.
Here's someone else who likes the number, from MarketWatch, August 13:
Avi Gilburt says the benchmark index will top 3,000 points in any scenario
We still believe there is more upside to the U.S. equity market before a 20%-30% correction, despite the trade wars and, now, Turkey.
For now, we are trying to focus on the S&P 500’s SPX, +0.31% next melt-up phase and whether it will top out at the lower end of our target zone in the 3,011-point region or rise to our ideal target around 3,225.

With the market pushing higher than I had wanted to see over the past week, it has added some complexity. Allow me to go through the perspectives I have laid out on the chart. But, first, I want to note that the patterns I am tracking on the 60-minute chart are all with the proviso that we maintain over 2,730 on the pullback that happened at the end of last week. 
Now, with that in mind, allow me to highlight my preference, which you can see in green. Within this structure, the market “should” drop down to at least the 2,790 region this week, but more preferably to 2,750-2,770 in a (c) wave of the green b-wave. And, that b-wave is within wave (iii) of an ending diagonal, which will not likely extend beyond 3,011 later this year.

The more advanced pattern of that wave (iii) in the ending diagonal is presented in yellow, which would suggest that this pullback is one degree ahead of the green count. That means the b-wave has already been completed, and this pullback is wave ii of the c-wave in wave (iii). This is probably my least favorite potential for the reasons I noted last week.

For both of those potentials, my target for wave (iii) is 2,935-2,965. And an impulsive move through 2,854 would suggest a run to our next higher target....MORE
Don't hold the fact that he's an Elliot Wave-er against him, our knock on Ellioticians is they always have an "alternative wave count" so they can never be wrong which means what they do isn't falsifiable which...awww, just ask Karl Popper (we'll ignore Duhem-Quine for the moment),
And listen to Jackie Wilson (old school)
S&P 500  2,859.52  +9.39 (+0.33%)