Friday, February 3, 2017

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Coming into the Spring shoulder injection season the hope of a widowmaker* trade helps to build anticipation for Eliot's cruelest month. Until then the two week national temperature forecast is above average putting downward pressure on prices while the prospect of a trade war with Mexico raises the risk to southbound U.S. gas exports.
Ah spring.

3.0560 down 0.1310
https://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=NG&cot=023651&p=d1&rev=636217060056617266
From the Energy Information Administration:
...Overview:
(For the Week Ending Wednesday, February 1, 2017)
  • Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, January 25 to Wednesday, February 1). The Henry Hub spot price fell from $3.25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.12/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the February 2017 contract expired Friday at $3.391/MMBtu. The March 2017 contract decreased to $3.168/MMBtu, down 18¢ Wednesday to Wednesday.
  • Net withdrawals from working gas totaled 87 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending January 27. Working natural gas stocks are 2,711 Bcf, which is 9% less than the year-ago level and 2% greater than the five-year (2012–16) average for this week.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 4¢, closing at $6.67/MMBtu for the week ending January 27. The prices of natural gasoline and ethane fell by 14% and 12%, respectively. The prices of propane, butane, and isobutane rose by 5%, 13%, and 11%, respectively.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Friday, January 27, the natural gas rig count increased by 3 to 145. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 15 to 566. The total rig count climbed by 18, and it now stands at 712.
Prices/Supply/Demand:
Prices fall everywhere outside the Northeast. This report week (Wednesday, January 25 to Wednesday, February 1), the Henry Hub spot price fell 13¢ from $3.25/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.12/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures moderated throughout the report week almost everywhere except for in the Northeast. As a result, prices generally fell Wednesday to Wednesday.
At the Chicago Citygate, prices decreased 14¢ from $3.22/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.08/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 16¢, down from $3.66/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.50/MMBtu yesterday....

...Supply remains flat. According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as the previous report week, averaging 76.3 Bcf/d. Dry natural gas production remained constant week over week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 1% from last week....
....MUCH MORE 

*In natural gas the Widowmaker term originally came from the March-April calendar spread where the premium/discount can swing 20% based on a couple weather rumors and you might see several flips from backwardation to contango and back in a week.. Now it is used to refer to the whole darn curve and any point on it.
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