Sunday, February 5, 2017

Eurodollar Futures Curve: After All the Central Bank Machinations We're Stuck In 2008

It's hard to discern with the colors he uses but if you squint you will see how the curves are amazingly close. I don't know if this is a curiosity or important but it sure seems odd.
From Alhambra Investments:

Chart(s) Of The Week: A Profound Comparison On Where We Are And Some Insight Into How It Got This Way
QE and ZIRP were monetary experiments, though that is not how they were presented. In public, QE in particular was given a subtext of certainty, that Ben Bernanke’s Fed (or Mario Draghi’s ECB) knew exactly what it took to get the job done and furthermore would get right at it. It was a job that all Americans of all kinds wanted badly for him to succeed at, even if they knew very little of what he was doing or agreed with how he might do it.

In a quirk of far, far more than random curiosity, so much is signified by so little change (shown below). I wrote earlier (subscription required):
The curve today is almost exactly, and I mean almost exactly, the same as it was on December 17, 2008. That date is deeply significant and by comparison then explains almost everything that is missing from “conventional wisdom.” That was the day the FOMC announced QE and ZIRP, which means that after eight years and seven weeks it all accomplished nothing. Nothing. The eurodollar curve is right back where it was, unchanged from perhaps the darkest moment in modern central bank and monetary history. It has been left nowhere near where it was supposed to have been long before now, a problem obviously unsolved by “money printing.”...MORE