"Summary of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts"

From Wunderblog, which we'll be putting on the blogroll through the end of the hurricane season.

...The major hurricane forecasting groups are not impressed with this season's potential to be an active one, and are universally calling for 2015 to be a below average to way below-average year for the Atlantic. The highest forecast numbers were from Weather Underground Community Hurricane Forecast, which called for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The lowest numbers were from North Carolina State University: 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane. The long-term averages for the past 65 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes. Here are the forecasts:

NOAA: 8.5 named storms, 4.5 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, ACE index 62.5% of normal.
Colorado State University (CSU): 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, ACE index 44% of normal.
Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR): 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane, ACE index 36% of normal.
UKMET office: 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes, ACE index 74% of normal (June - November.)
FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS):
Weather Underground Community Hurricane Forecast: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
WSI: 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane
Penn State: 8 named storms.
North Carolina State University: 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane.
Coastal Carolina University: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes.
The Cuban Meteorological Service, INSMET: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes.

The main reason for the quiet forecasts is the likely intensification of the current moderate strength El Niño. Every 3 - 7 years, variations in tropical winds and pressure shift warm ocean waters eastwards from the Western Pacific to the South American coast, causing an El Niño event. The unusually warm water tends to drive an atmospheric circulation that brings strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic, creating high levels of wind shear that tend to tear hurricanes apart. Another factor leading to lower forecast numbers than in previous years is the fact that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average to below average this year--quite a bit cooler than we've seen during the typical year during our active hurricane period that began in 1995....MUCH MORE