Old analyst joke. I am so sorry.
From Agrimoney:
Rabobank ditched hopes of corn futures returning to $4 a bushel any time soon, slashing its forecast for soybean values too, but retained expectations of a revival in cotton and sugar prices, and upgraded its coffee price outlook.The bank cut by up to $0.57 a bushel its forecast for Chicago corn futures, reducing to $3.50 a bushel the estimate for the nadir in prices - in quarter-average terms - in the October-December period.
That implies some further downside for the December lot, which stood at $3.64 a bushel on Monday, and would mark the weakest quarter since the April-to-June period 2010 for Chicago corn futures, on a spot contract basis.
The forecast assumes a record US corn yield of 170-175 bushels per acre, in line with the latest estimates on Friday from brokers Doane, at 172.3 bushels per acre, and Linn Group, at 172.8 bushels per acre. There is some talk that Informa Economics will update its estimate later on Monday.
The US Department of Agriculture currently pegs the yield at 165.3 bushels per acre, itself a record, but is expected on August 12, in its monthly Wasde crop report, to lift the forecast.
Weather correlation
Rabobank, which had forecast corn futures remaining above $4.00 a bushel for the next year, cited for its yield forecast evidence that strong second-quarter rainfall and low July temperatures bring bumper harvests....MORE
364'4 last.
