Jan. 3I'm getting too old for this.It's acting as if HFT is running amok.
Natural Gas Shrugs Off Lower Than Expected Storage Withdrawal, Moves Higher
Jan. 6
"Natural Gas Fluctuates Amid Forecasts for Fading Cold Weather"
Jan. 9
Natural Gas: Price Collapses on EIA Numbers, Market Yawns at Next Week's Projected 300 Bcf Withdrawal Report
Hey you kids, get out of my yard!
Front futures $4.2230 up 17 cents.
From Bloomberg:
Natural gas futures surged the most in three weeks on speculation that government data will show a record decline in U.S. stockpiles of the heating fuel as cold weather boosts demand.
Gas gained as much as 4.6 percent, the biggest increase since Dec. 19. An Energy Information
Administration report Jan. 16 may show that supplies dropped by 303 billion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 10, surpassing the biggest-ever drop of 285 billion on Dec. 13, according to Citi Futures Perspective. MDA Weather Services predicted below-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. from Jan. 18 to Jan. 27.
“Traders are focusing on the fact that we’re probably going to see a record storage withdrawal,” said Tom Saal, senior vice president of energy trading at FCStone Latin America LLC in Miami. “The market’s not ready to give up on winter yet.”
Natural gas for February delivery rose 16.1 cents, or 4 percent, to $4.214 per million British thermal units at 9:46 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading volume was 81 percent above the 100-day average. Prices are up 27 percent from a year ago.
The premium of February to March futures advanced 0.6 cent to 3.8 cents. March gas traded 14.9 cents above the April contract, compared with 11.6 cents on Jan. 10.
February $4.40 calls were the most active options in electronic trading. They were 4.5 cents higher at 7.3 cents per million Btu on volume of 497 at 10:01 a.m. Calls accounted for 64 percent of trading volume.
Inventory Deficit
Gas stockpiles totaled 2.817 trillion cubic feet on Jan. 3, 10.1 percent below the five-year average and 15.8 percent less than last year’s supplies for the week, according to the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. The five-year average drop for the seven days ended Jan. 10 is 159 billion.
The U.S. cut its forecast for gas inventories at the end of March, when they bottom out after the heating season, by 200 billion cubic feet to 1.5 trillion, Adam Sieminski, administrator of the EIA, said in an e-mailed statement Jan. 7. He attributed the revision to “a cold December and several large weekly withdrawals.” Supplies totaled 1.687 trillion on March 29 last year.
Jan. 7 was the coldest day of the 21st century in the contiguous U.S. states, based on a measure of heating demand, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.
Colder Weather
The low in New York on Jan. 19 may be 18 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 8 Celsius), 9 less than average, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. Temperatures in Cleveland may fall to 15 degrees, 8 below normal....MORE
