From City A.M:
The "new normal" is a buzzword that's been doing the rounds for quite a while, but might be a fiction, according to Deutsche Bank US chief economist Joseph LaVorgna.*Some of our LaVorgna posts:
Today LaVorgna has released a note titled "Is the old normal the new "new normal"?"
That implies that the idea of a shift to very different business conditions in the wake of the 2008 crisis is a falsehood, and that we're returning to a business as usual state.
LaVorgna points to stronger that expected economic data, with strong US durable goods orders in November, higher consumer spending and today's data showing a falling trade deficit. Deutsche Bank has revised up their US growth predictions for the last quarter of 2013 from 3.8 per cent to four per cent (but bear in mind that those figures are annualised). If accurate, that would be the biggest jump in final quarter growth over the previous final quarter since 2005....MORE
Dear Santa: If Deutsche Bank's Taper Analysis Is Correct Should I Buy Options on Silver Futures?
...From LaVorgna's note titled "'Twas The Night Before Taper..."He nailed both magnitude and timing.
We are looking for a $10 billion Treasuries only taper
On QE, 2012:
“It’s going to be massive and open-ended in size,”On the other hand he was a bit too cheery in 2009:
Predicting the pace of rate hikes
...Joseph Lavorgna, U.S. chief economist, Deutsche Bank, weighed in on the subject this week, saying small rate increases will begin in the second half of 2010, followed by larger hikes in 2011.But overall he has a pretty good feel for this stuff.
"We are projecting 100 bps of tightening next year and then 200 bps of tightening in 2011, thereby bringing the funds rate to around 3%....
