Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Major Commodity Trader Sees China Turnaround

How do you know that Trafigura is a major?
1) It has its roots in the Marc Rich operation. (see Glencore)
2) About once a week a headline like this crosses the screen "Zambian minister under investigation over Trafigura contract"
3) Their $120 Billion in revenues is slightly ahead of Cargill and trails only Glencore/Xtrata ($220B) and the oil behemoth Vitol ($295B).

From Bloomberg:
Trafigura Predicts China Rebound as Emerging Markets Pick Up
The economy in China, the world’s biggest user of energy and copper, is expected to improve in the first half of next year, according to Trafigura Group, the third-largest independent oil trader.

“The news flows about China are starting to look more positive and we are looking for that to translate into the real economy,” Chief Financial Officer Pierre Lorinet said in an interview in Singapore yesterday. “Especially in the emerging world, we have come out of the cyclical downturn and will be back on the upswing.”

A recovery in the second-largest economy may lift commodity prices and trading, aiding companies such as Amsterdam-based Trafigura, which Lorinet said posted a drop in sales and “slightly” lower net income last financial year, and rival Glencore (GLEN) International Plc. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has forecast a 7 percent return from commodities over the next 12 months, with energy leading the way.

“We have seen some volumes down in some of our activities,” said Lorinet, describing 2012 as a challenging and complicated year with uncertainties generated by Europe’s debt crisis, unrest in the Middle East, the U.S. presidential election and the shift to new leadership in China.

Sales at the privately held company, which doesn’t publicly disclose financial data, dropped 1.6 percent to $120 billion in the 12 months to September, after gaining 53 percent the year before, he said. Crude trading declined, while base metals and iron ore increased, he said....MORE
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