The trick this year was to abandon any pretense of fundamental analysis and trade the 2nd derivative of Fed announcements.
You couldn't use your interpretation of what the Fed was saying or even the market's understanding but rather had to ascertain the market's reaction to said announcements.
Getting damn close to James Jesus Angleton's Wilderness of Mirrors.
From Pragmatic Capitalism:
2012 was another bad year for Wall Street’s pundits. This piece in yesterday’s WSJ highlighted some of the pitfalls involved in making broad market prognostications and not having to back those comments up with, well, anything at all:I've never thought Cramer was anything more than entertainment and possibly a (witting? unwitting?) Paulson/Blankfein disinformatzia agent.
Neither Mr. Rogers nor Mr. Cramer should feel singled out. The business of market punditry is fraught with potholes.
Of the 65 market “gurus” tracked during the last few years by CXO Advisory Group, the median accuracy for market calls is 47%. If that sounds low, or you wonder about the quality of the pundit, consider that the list includes such well-known names as Bill Fleckenstein (37%), Jeremy Grantham (48%), Bill Gross (46%) and Louis Navellier (60%).”...MORE, including comments.
