Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Macquarie "Wheat 50% overvalued - corn to hit three-year low"

Good timing.
This Agrimoney story is datelined yesterday, today wheat was down 3.2% to $8.215, possibly in response to the WASDE.
From Agrimoney:
Wheat futures for next year's crop are overvalued by nearly 50%, and corn prices are on their way to their lowest since 2010, Macquarie said, pegging soybeans as the best bet of Chicago's big three crops for 2013.

The bank said that while it was "generally bullish" for grain and oilseed prices in a three-to-six month outlook, thanks to the supply squeeze caused by 2012 production setbacks, "a large surplus is coming to market" later next year, weighing on values.
The surplus "will be a general pressure on prices as the world's consumers will have plentiful competition for their demand", Macquarie said.
The "trigger point" for the fall in prices "will be the outlook for the pollination window in the early summer", which was disrupted in the US particularly this year by hot and dry weather....MORE