Friday, December 7, 2012

Are We 6 Points From a Top in the S&P 500? (SPY)

Hell I don't know.
After correctly foreseeing the pop that BAC made through multi-month (and year) resistance I figure the stock trades under the $10.50 level through Monday, go on record with that on Wednesday, am eminently correct through Thursday and then...
The stock is up 2% at $10.66 and I'm feeling like Harold at Hastings.

From Barron's Getting Technical column:
Has a Ceiling Formed Over the Stock Market? 
Over the past several days, the intraday fits and starts in the stock market have been frustrating for bull and bear alike. Case in point was Wednesday morning's sudden upside reversal following what appeared to be a short-term breakdown.

These ups and downs also serve to distract from the technical ceiling looming overhead. So far, that ceiling successfully repelled the market's advance.

Unless something happens soon to change the tone on Wall Street for the better, whether it is compromise on solving the fiscal cliff or a surprise uptick in economic activity, the trend in the stock market remains to the downside.

Last week, I was a bit aggressive in setting overhead resistance on the Standard & Poor's 500 at 1405-1410 (see Getting Technical, "The Absence of Market Fear is Scary," Nov. 28). After a temporary foray above it, the index ran into serious trouble at 1422 and fell back below the original zone, trading as low as 1398.23 Wednesday morning before rebounding (see Chart 1).
 Chart 1 Standard & Poor's 500


Resistance at 1422 is indeed important. It traces back to the March 2012 high and is near the postelection gap seen on Nov. 7. A gap is simply an area of empty space on the charts left when the market was forced to jump over a price range due to an imbalance in supply and demand. It is not visible on a calculated index such as the S&P 500, but it is clear on the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (ticker: SPY), the exchange-traded fund tracking it....

S&P 500 1416.20, up 2.26.