Wednesday, May 4, 2011

May 4, 2011: Société Générale's Albert Edwards Sees Blue Skies, Nothing But Blue Skies, From Now On


Albert does not wear the devil-may-care look well:

Our Hero

In fact he appears a bit deranged when he tries to smile.
Regardless, we are fans. and so is FT Alphaville* Here's the latest:
Another missive on the US recovery from the SocGen bear-king Albert Edwards and, uh-oh, paging Ludwig Wittgenstein:
Words fail me
What’s up Albert?
Dylan’s latest weekly extolled the virtues of holding cash when expected returns on equities look as poor as they do now… This sort of language is an anathema to most of the buy side. Indeed it almost has no meaning in the investment world we now live in. Now I have hit 50, I increasingly understand my language of bearishness is simply not recognised by the younger fund managers I meet who look on me as if I have landed from Mars…
We’re not so sure about that, actually. In fact Albert’s latest note speaks a language that most investors can understand – a rugged dialect of durable goods orders, cyclical indicators, and near-term economic strength:
Despite the weaker-than-expected 1.8% rise in Q1 US GDP, overall economic activity remains pretty resilient. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity and is constructed to have an average value of zero to reflect trend growth…
After accurately picking up the Q1 slowdown, the latest reading of the CFNAI shows activity increased to an above trend +0.26 from +0.16 in February. The Chicago Fed recommend using a 3-month moving average and that edged down to +0.20 in March, which suggests a patch of stronger GDP data ahead…
Although obviously Albert snaps out of it....MORE

A couple of Alphavilles posts:

"FT Alphaville Albert Edwards"

"Everyone’s an Albert these days"
Accept no imitations.
And a few of ours:

FT Alphaville Presents a Société Générale Production of The Black Swan Pas de deux from Swan Lake Starring Albert Edwards and Dylan Grice! (Mar 7, 2011) 

Société Générale's Albert Edwards: Cry Havoc and Let Slip the...Ah Screw it (Oct. 20, 2010
Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "I Have Been Wrong – I’ve Been Too Bullish" (Jan. 17, 2011)