Friday, March 6, 2009

"I Will Survive" (GE, not Gloria Gaynor)

What the heck, Gloria too:
First I was afraid
I was petrified
Kept thinking I could never live
without you by my side
But I spent so many nights
thinking how you did me wrong
I grew strong
I learned how to carry on...

Here's the vid, below it, Bronte Capital seems to think GE will make it.

From Bronte Capital:
Voodoo maths and GE
...However if they take the extra provisions over three years then pre-tax, pre-provision earnings (ie Voodoo maths) will see them through.

Oh, if the losses are where the bears think ($60 billion range) and if the government supports GE’s liquidity (likely in my view) then voodoo maths will still see GE through – but the time period is five years and the dividend gets cut to zero.

The stock may not be a buy - but on those sort of numbers the CDS is unnecessarily wide - and Warren Buffett will make money on his preferred.