From FT Alphaville:
Murti’s back, and he sees a bottom in crude
Arjun Murti, formerly the world’s most bullish energy equity analyst, is back.
This time he is cutting the Goldman team’s 2009 WTI oil forecast one more time to an average of $45/bbl from $75/bbl (versus an original $200/bbl). He is also saying the crude markets have entered the bottoming phase of the cycle:
Oil markets in final phase of downcycleNot to misunderstand - Murti’s lowered oil price outlook doesn’t mean the team is incrementally more bearish on ‘Energy equities’ (capital E). Murti explains:...MORE
Further deterioration in global oil demand has led us to again lower our 2009 WTI oil price view, though we believe oil markets have entered the bottoming phase of the cycle. We believe the oil price will trough in 1Q2009, with moderating global oil demand declines and increasing non-OPEC supply declines being the keys to the timing and magnitude of recovery in 2H2009 and 2010.