Thursday, May 22, 2008

Suntech Power net income doubles, beats target. And: Playing the Solar Game (STP; ENER; CSIQ; SOLF)

Update here.

Another of the Chinese solars that we don't have a lot of interest in.

Here's the game: The fast money is rolling from one solar to the next as each reports earnings.
As a group the business is good so the earnings are coming in above analyst's estimates. Three weeks ago you could wait until the day before the release as there was still uncertainty. ENER was an example (closing prices):

May 7- $34.81
May 8- $49.91

A couple weeks ago, Canadian Solar (Chinese despite the name):

May 12- $34.10
May 13- $40.78

Yesterday, SOLF reported:

May 20- $25.24
May 21- $26.50

As you can see the day of release pop is decreasing. SOLF had moved up from $14.94 on the 12th as the gamblers started buying earlier and earlier. It's down pre-market this morning.
We said yesterday:
The stock is up 19% pre-market.
The gamblers will be moving on, Mystery/History.

It closed up only 4.99%, having given back 14 of those percentage points. This isn't rocket surgery, all you have to do is care enough to watch and then understand what you're seeing. Here's a comment on the MarketBeat post "Rice, Beer and UPS":

It also used to be that you could buy ABUD (as it was then quoted) in February and sell in August for a nice predictable move.
The buy dates got earlier and earlier each year until the whole seasonal thing was shot to hell.
Once you think you’ve found the key, they go and change the lock.
Comment by
Climateer - April 23, 2008 at 5:25 pm

Some things never change.
From MarketWatch:

Suntech Power Holdings Co. shares rose in pre-market trades Thursday after it issued a bright 2008 forecast for its silicon solar panel manufacturing business and said its first-quarter net income doubled....MORE