Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Market Reaction to the Fed: Is That All There Is? Then Let's Keep Shorting.

Talking with a friend yesterday I told him we were probably due for a four hundred point pop. A pop because countertrend rallies are sharp and compressed in time and four hundred points because, well, I just pulled the number out of my backside. No Fibbonacci retracement or such, just a number that would not be surprising.

What is surprising is how feeble the move has been. My back of the napkin guesstimate was based on no action until next week's Fed meeting. Now we get a pretty large expansion of the type of collateral the Federales are accepting and this is all we get for an initial move, it's time to turn to Peggy Lee and Don Henley for guidance. First the Zeitgeist:

I remember when I was a very little girl, our house caught on fire.
I'll never forget the look on my father's face as he gathered me up
in his arms and raced through the burning building out to the pavement.
I stood there shivering in my pajamas and watched the whole world go up in flames.
And when it was all over I said to myself, "Is that all there is to a fire"

Is that all there is, is that all there is
If that's all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing
Let's break out the booze and have a ball
If that's all there is

Here's the video.

And then a tactical approach:

I make my living off the evening news
Just give me something, something I can use
People love it when you lose, they love dirty laundry

Well, I could've been an actor, but I wound up here
I just have to look good, I don't have to be clear
Come and whisper in my ear, give us dirty laundry

Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em all around

Here's a live version.