From the U.N.'s Food and Agricultural Organization. (57 page PDF)
Here's Biopact's headline and story, the FAO had better be right:
FAO: global fertilizer supply expected to outstrip demand
World fertilizer production is expected to outstrip demand over the next five years and will support higher levels of food and biofuel production, FAO said in a new report entitled “Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/12” published today. The outlook shows the basic laws of supply and demand are doing their work.
High commodity prices experienced over recent years led to increased production and correspondingly to greater fertilizer use. This has led to tight markets and higher fertilizer prices. While it is expected that the demand for basic food crops, fruits and vegetables, for animal products and for biofuel crops is likely to remain strong, we expect fertilizer supply to grow sufficiently to meet higher consumption. - Jan Poulisse, FAO fertilizer expertThe FAO report estimates that world fertilizer supply (nitrogen, phosphate and potash nutrient) will increase by some 34 million tonnes representing an annual growth rate of 3 percent between 2007/08 and 2011/12, comfortably sufficient to cover demand growth of 1.9 percent annually (table, click to enlarge)....MORE