Showing posts sorted by relevance for query materials science. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query materials science. Sort by date Show all posts

Saturday, December 2, 2023

"Material Impact announces $352m materials science fund"

Putting it simply, materials science is the future of stuff.

From AgFunderNews, November 16:

Material Impact announces $352m materials science fund: 
‘You can trace back disruptive innovation in almost any industry to an underlying advance in material science’
  • Boston-based venture firm Material Impact has announced Material Impact Fund III, a $352 million fund to back inception-stage companies developing products enabled by innovations in materials science.
  • The firm, which has $800 million in assets under management and 30 portfolio companies, has teamed up with new and existing LPs including university endowments, foundations, family offices, and fund-of-funds (pooled investment funds that invest in other types of funds) for Fund III.
  • From tackling the “consequences of extreme weather, supply chain vulnerabilities, increased demand on our energy and transportation infrastructure, or the globe’s shrinking clean water supply, Fund III will support the building of companies solving these problems,” says Material Impact.
Exclusive focus on materials science
In a post on the firm’s website announcing the new fund, cofounders Adam Sharkawy and Carmichael Roberts explain: “You can trace almost any major disruptive innovation in any market or industry back to an underlying innovation in material science.

“Whether it is what alloys have done for automotive, composite materials for aerospace, or what polymers and the element of silicon have done for almost every aspect of our lives, they all exist because of advances in materials.”

“We’re proud to be among the first firms that focused exclusively on material science as more firms are moving into this exciting and important space.”

Solving big problems
Sharkawy tells AgFunderNews: “From the outset when we raised Fund I in 2017, we’ve been focused on large-scale problems, on what we call Maslowian needs… like water scarcity, the food supply chain, sustainable manufacturing, mobility and energy, and under-represented healthcare.

“And over the last seven years we’ve come to appreciate that these topics will require an entire ecosystem of stakeholders spanning the consumer, governments, and large corporates, time, and a lot of capital. So we want to be able to go deeper with [our portfolio] companies and support them through not one or two rounds of financing, but all the way through their mission.”....

....MUCH MORE

 We've been pitching materials science since 2009's "What It Takes: Building a Materials Science Company for the 21st Century".

First off, 3D printing is not dead, it's not even resting. But like nanotechnology (remember nano?) it is becoming just another wrench in the toolbox. Here's how we were viewing nanotech in 2010:
...The reason for highlighting nano is two-fold.

1) Since Feynman coined the word there has been a misconception among investors that there would be a nano-technology "industry". This has proven not to be the case and won't be in the future. Rather nano is a tool, an approach toward problem solving.

There will be some breakthroughs that make their discoverers instantly (after 10 years of research) wealthy but the real beneficiaries will be companies like Kyocera and 3M and Siemens. They will use the technology to do what they are already doing, just better, faster, cheaper, more.

2) In spite of the fact that there will be few pure plays we are convinced that nano combined with advances in materials science and manufacturing technology is what will spur the next secular bull market....
When it becomes ubiquitous, the distinctions blur, the drive for creativity recedes, stasis, then death.
Wait what? Entropy! I meant to co-opt the physically precise  concept of entropy to metaphorically describe the trend. Not death.
No, death bad, Sand Hill Road good.

And today's story, from CB Insights...

And many more. If interested use the 'search blog' box, upper left.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

What It Takes: Building a Materials Science Company for the 21st Century

Advanced Material Sciences research is one of the reasons I'm optimistic that this secular bear market will be a bit shorter than the '66-'82 bear. See posts below for some ideas that are close to commercialization.
A very smart post from Greentech:
As materials science companies chart new territory in the fields of clean energy and greentech, the rules of innovation are being rewritten.

Part 1: Product Development

For much of our recent economic history, information technology has dominated our thinking about innovation, progress and prosperity. With good reason: the IT revolution changed the world in powerful and profound ways that we're just beginning to understand and process.

But now, there's a new growth agent emerging - materials science - and it's different from its digital predecessor. As materials science and the companies it has spawned chart new territory in the fields of clean energy and green technology, the rules of innovation are being rewritten. And now this fast-growing field has the chance of fundamentally changing our economic and environmental outlook.

As this fresh catalyst takes hold, it's interesting to ask what type of company best fosters 21st century materials science breakthroughs. In addition, as a frame of reference, how do the new and emerging materials science companies compare with the powerhouse information technology companies that so clearly helped mold and shape our views on what it means to bring a product to market?

Nature's Role in the Process

In information technology, virtually any product development challenge can be overcome with more time, more money, or both. Eventually, the problem will be solved. By comparison, product development in a science company is far less predictable. The laws of nature can – and often do – get in the way of tidy, systematic forward progress.

The result is that the product developer in a materials science company is denied the typical tradeoffs of most IT development efforts. You can't remove features to hit a deadline; you can't simply add resources to force a product release into shipping earlier than expected; the relationship between resources and outcomes is not at all linear; you can't always predict the date a given set of product features will be ready for customer consumption.

The Challenge of Managing a Product Timeline

As a result, the biggest challenge with materials science is managing the product timeline so that the vagaries of science-based development efforts are properly accounted for in the plan. Workstreams, tasks and subtasks must all be defined enough to build a probabilistic assumption set around the completion times. Be ready for a task to take an unexpectedly long time to complete while others may finish early; in other words, plan for the reality that you'll "win some and lose some." Scientific research and development is far more entropic than software development....MORE

Some material science posts:
Solar: Peak Gallium? Indium?

...You know how this ends up?
We'll figure something out. That is really the only claim to fame of Homo Sapiens, singular and collectively.

But, it's a pretty good one.
DOE places bets on 'transformative' energy tech
We prefer the word disruptive vs. transformative. If any of the wilder ideas pan out, they will seriously "disrupt" existing businesses....
Batteries: Who Got the Loot?
Solar: To make solar cells more efficient, sprinkle them with silver
Talk about a speculator's twofer!
Grid: New Power Line De-icing System Developed
"Can R&D Save General Electric?" and "GE's Risky Energy Research" (GE)
At Stanford, nanotubes + ink + paper = instant battery
Carbon nanotubes may cheaply harvest sunlight
Betting on a Metal-Air Battery Breakthrough
This kind of thing is why we use the term "Disruptive" technology rather than "Transformative" technology....
Q&A: Mark Little, Head of GE Global Research- "GE is pushing the smart grid and thin-film solar, but don't expect new kinds of nuclear reactors. "
And many more that I can't remember offhand.

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

"A New Age of Materials Is Dawning, for Everything From Smartphones to Missiles"

This dawn they speak of has been a long time coming.*

From the Wall Street Journal, July 5:

Labor-intensive manufacturing has limited the use of lighter, stronger composites but that may change with emerging techniques

There have been only a handful of ages of new materials in the history of humankind—ceramics, steel and plastics come to mind—and we are now on the cusp of the next one: composites.

When we talk of composites, we’re speaking about such things as the carbon-fiber ones in wind turbines, race cars and the Boeing 787. Such materials have the advantage of being far lighter than the metal parts they typically replace, while being just as strong, and requiring fewer resources to make.

Materials scientists have had limited success making composites affordable and accessible for decades, or possibly millennia—technically, they were invented by the Mesopotamians. The labor-intensive nature of their manufacturing has made them expensive, which has limited their application to a handful of areas where their advantages outweigh their costs, such as the aerospace industry.

Now, thanks to new manufacturing techniques that can churn out composite parts quickly and cheaply, all of that is changing, and the results could be both profound and exciting.

Modern composites, starting with Bakelite, were pioneered in the early part of the 20th century. Other composites were invented at a steady pace, and the industry began to hit its stride in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when automated processes for turning things like carbon fiber into giant structures like airplane bodies and windmill blades reached maturity.

In just the past couple of years, a number of startups have developed processes for creating all sorts of small objects from composites, in a way that is fast and inexpensive. These include Berkeley, Calif.-based Arris Composites, 9T Labs in Zurich, Orbital Composites in Silicon Valley, and others.

Shifting substantial portions of what we make and use from steel and plastic to composites—which are amalgamations of a variety of fibers, embedded in a variety of plastics—could bring new kinds of transportation, more terrifying weapons of war, and lighter and more durable smartphones, wearables and other consumer electronics.

All of that is possible because composites, while they have their challenges, are often able to perform just as well as high-strength metal parts, but with a fraction of the weight. Composites are the reason modern jetliners are so fuel-efficient, and the entire wind-power industry would be impossible without enormous turbine blades made from composites.

It’s one thing to make airplanes out of composites—Boeing pioneered this technology with its 787, on which nearly every visible surface is in fact made of a carbon-fiber composite. It’s quite another to mass-produce smaller composite parts of the kind that we typically make out of titanium or other metals, such as the bolts and brackets that hold a 787 together.

As with other pioneering manufacturing technologies, such as 3-D printing, bringing composites into the mainstream is more of an evolutionary process than a revolutionary one.

Today, you can buy consumer products made with ultralight, ultrastrong parts from Arris and 9T Labs, including Brooks running shoes, spokes for bicycle wheels, and luxury watches. But what’s coming is even more interesting: Arris’s technology is being tested by Airbus to replace metal brackets inside its planes and by Singapore-based ST Engineering, which performs a substantial fraction of the repairs on airplanes in the U.S.

9T Labs is also working on aerospace applications, and by the end of the year it hopes at least one of its customers will be ready to announce bicycles made with its parts. Orbital Composites, meanwhile, has a handful of contracts with the U.S. military to develop its composites-manufacturing process for satellites, rockets, drones and hypersonic aircraft....

....MUCH MORE
*The outro from 2023's ""Material Impact announces $352m materials science fund"
Putting it simply, materials science is the future of stuff.

*****
We've been pitching materials science since 2009's "What It Takes: Building a Materials Science Company for the 21st Century".
First off, 3D printing is not dead, it's not even resting. But like nanotechnology (remember nano?) it is becoming just another wrench in the toolbox. Here's how we were viewing nanotech in 2010:
...The reason for highlighting nano is two-fold.

1) Since Feynman coined the word there has been a misconception among investors that there would be a nano-technology "industry". This has proven not to be the case and won't be in the future. Rather nano is a tool, an approach toward problem solving.

There will be some breakthroughs that make their discoverers instantly (after 10 years of research) wealthy but the real beneficiaries will be companies like Kyocera and 3M and Siemens. They will use the technology to do what they are already doing, just better, faster, cheaper, more.

2) In spite of the fact that there will be few pure plays we are convinced that nano combined with advances in materials science and manufacturing technology is what will spur the next secular bull market....
When it becomes ubiquitous, the distinctions blur, the drive for creativity recedes, stasis, then death.
Wait what? Entropy! I meant to co-opt the physically precise  concept of entropy to metaphorically describe the trend. Not death.
No, death bad, Sand Hill Road good.

And today's story, from CB Insights...

And many more. If interested use the 'search blog' box, upper left.

Monday, January 28, 2013

"'Four Ways to Play the 'New Gold Rush' in Materials Technology'"

Unlike Queen Victoria we are amused.
From Money Morning (Australia)
Who would have thought that the new gold rush would be in material sciences?
(CI: yes, who, who indeed?)
We're talking about everything from rare earths that drive precision lasers to the cobalt needed for rechargeable batteries

Not to mention the advanced materials that make computer chips run faster. Or the "smart" materials that are driving the nanotech revolution.

Of course the big news in what I call the Golden Age of Materials Science came less than nine years ago when two scientists discovered graphene.

It's a revolutionary material that will yield flat-screen TVs as thin as Saran Wrap, nanotech supercomputers, and neural implants that combat brain disease. No wonder the two scientists who discovered it won the Nobel Prize.

Now hundreds of scientists have hit the lab to look for new ways to tweak existing molecules -- or create whole new synthetic substances. They've already produced a steady stream of breakthroughs.
Today, I want to show you four ways you can profit from all of this radical change.

For most investors, that will mean focusing on the specialty chemicals sector, which is up about 22% in the past six months. That's more than double the market's overall move over the same the period.
Here are four material sciences stocks that have caught my eye thanks to their strong fundamentals and solid charts:
New Materials Play No. 1: PolyOne Corp. (NYSE:POL)
Not only is this mid-cap leader on the cutting edge of high-tech materials, it has a rich history as well. The firm cut its teeth on plastics during the industry's dawn in the 1920s....MORE
See also:
Dec. 2009 
What It Takes: Building a Materials Science Company for the 21st Century
Advanced Material Sciences research is one of the reasons I'm optimistic that this secular bear market will be a bit shorter than the '66-'82 bear. See posts below for some ideas that are close to commercialization.... 
NOVA: Materials That Changed History (win a MacBook Air or iPod Touch)
 "Top Investment Trends For Futurists" (PXN; TINY)
Possibly Major Materials Science Breakthrough: "Carbon Dioxide Super Scrubber?"
Oct. 2010 
The 2010 Nobel prizes: Physics--Graphene Researchers Geim and Novoselov Win
Unlike the Peace Prize, you have to actually do something to win this one.
Materials science, yeah baby!...
And so many others I'd be listing them all night.
If interested use the blog search box keyword materials science or innovation or...

Friday, March 26, 2010

"GE’s Secret Sauce in Solar: X-Ray Systems and OLED Lights" (GE)

Materials science, yeah baby!*
From Greentech:
Health care and material scientists within GE will see if their work translates to solar.

Finally, the two great issues of our day -- energy and health care -- come together.

Earlier this month, General Electric formally announced that it would develop its own line of cadmium telluride solar panels in conjunction with PrimeStar Solar and sell the panels to developers of utility-scale solar parks starting next year.

A number of observers, however, wondered why. Panel prices have continued to plummet and the flood of new competitors has helped turn solar panels into a commodity; in 2009, in fact, GE shut down a crystalline silicon solar plant.

The answer in part turns out to lay in material science research taking place in other parts of GE, particularly the health care group.

"We are at the forefront of sensitivity of thin films," said Bruce Norman, the technology leader for GE's solar business and one of the speakers at next week's Solar Summit 2010 sponsored by Greentech Media.

Many of GE's digital X-ray technologies essentially revolve around exploiting thin films to exchange electrons and/or photons, he noted. Cadmium telluride also shares some of the processing characteristics of gallium arsenide, a semiconductor employed in X-ray imaging.

Perhaps even more directly, the company will also take advantage of encapsulants and other materials developed for organic light emitting diodes, or OLEDs. Like thin film solar cells, OLEDs degrade over time and the degradation can accelerate with exposure to moisture and the outside environment. Sealants have been a huge issue for the CIGS market. Conceivably, this gives GE at least a few of the tools it will need to get into CIGS as well.

If GE can leverage the work of its worldwide research labs, it could change the characteristics of the thin film market. First Solar has long dominated the field in cadmium telluride solar cells and in the process has become the world's largest solar manufacturer. First Solar, however, sells modules with efficiencies that hover around 11 percent and boosting efficiencies has become more difficult and expensive as the number has climbed. Suddenly, one of the biggest employers of condensed matter physics is interested.

Much of GE's research, arguably, would be comparatively inexpensive: the health care group has already paid for a good portion of the basic science. In a sense, IBM is pursuing a similar strategy -- repurposing materials from lithography and chips for water purification -- but IBM licenses its technology, whereas GE uses its technology in-house.

GE hasn't said what the efficiencies of its panel will be, but the company has said it wants to come out with panels that will be market leaders.

In a sense, the cadmium telluride strategy is similar to the strategy GE took last year when it jumped into sodium metal halide batteries for trains and the grid. Japan's NGK has enjoyed a virtual monopoly in this sub-segment of the battery world as the only major supplier of sodium sulfur batteries....MORE

*See also:
What It Takes: Building a Materials Science Company for the 21st Century

"The Future of Building Materials"

"Can R&D Save General Electric?" and "GE's Risky Energy Research" (GE)

Watch Out First Solar: "GE outlines R&D efforts with CdTe thin-film technology" (FSLR; GE)

Q&A: Mark Little, Head of GE Global Research- "GE is pushing the smart grid and thin-film solar, but don't expect new kinds of nuclear reactors."

Solar: What Would You Think of a Cell that Can Trap 85% of Available Light?

I've said it a few times, most recently in last month's "Deep Solar Science at Stanford":

Besides the dependence on subsidies the scariest thing about investing in solar is the possibility that some lab in Shenzen or Cambridge (both of 'em) or Cali will come up with something that makes current technology obsolete overnight....

There are two areas of knowledge required for the next industrial revolution, this is an example of one of them, materials science at the nano level.

The other is manufacturing science where, in the first industrial revolution, it seemed that half the engineers in the world were Scottish. Who's going to step up this time?

Friday, December 2, 2011

MITnews: ''Chu: New materials could be transformative"

"Fundamentally VCs are risk adverse – they want no risk in the deal,
if we could handle risk we'd be entrepreneurs."

– Victor Westerlind, General Partner at Cleantech VC firm Rockport Capital


I've touched on the importance of materials science a few times, links here and below.
NOVA: Materials That Changed History (win a MacBook Air or iPod Touch)
I have mentioned in passing that the next secular bull market (read: expanding P/E ratios combined with earnings growth over a multiyear period) will be facilitated by some combination of advances in materials science, manufacturing technology and applied nanotechnology.

Some prognosticators are positing 2020 for the beginning of this glorius event, some 2018.
We're in the minority looking for an earlier start, say 2014-2015. In any case we have some time, we might as well spend it in the company of smart people. Here's NOVA....
And:
"Top Investment Trends For Futurists" (PXN; TINY)
 John Ogg does a quick survey of some of the areas where future excess returns might arise.
I've included the sub-heads but only copied out one sector, nano-technology. The whole thing is worth a read.
The reason for highlighting nano is two-fold.

1) Since Feynman coined the word there has been a misconception among investors that there would be a nano-technology "industry". This has proven not to be the case and won't be in the future. Rather nano is a tool, an approach toward problem solving.

There will be some breakthroughs that make their discoverers instantly (after 10 years of research) wealthy but the real beneficiaries will be companies like Kyocera and 3M and Siemens. They will use the technology to do what they are already doing, just better, faster, cheaper, more.

2) In spite of the fact that there will be few pure plays we are convinced that nano combined with advances in materials science and manufacturing technology is what will spur the next secular bull market.
Some prognosticators say it will be 2020 before the next bull while we are more optimistic, looking for a 2014-2016 time-frame. Because the crystal ball gets foggy even in the short term it is impossible to forecast where the magic will land. The thing to do now is get a feel for the possibilities and spread your bets.
The entrepreneur's credo seems helpful: Fail fast, fail often, fail forward....
The headline story from MITnews, :

Citing historical examples, U.S. secretary of energy argues that the nation can still regain its manufacturing leadership
In a talk rich with historical examples, U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu made a strong case Wednesday that the right policies — and concerted efforts by the nation’s engineers and scientists — could once again produce significant growth in domestic manufacturing jobs, while addressing global problems of energy supply and climate change.

In his talk at MIT, Chu delivered a history of “transformative technologies,” including the invention of artificial fertilizer and the “Green Revolution,” which together unleashed explosive growth in world food production; the creation of the automotive assembly line by Henry Ford, which made cars available to the mass market; and the invention of the transistor and integrated circuits at Bell Labs, which unleashed the digital revolution that has transformed people’s lives in countless ways.

What the United States needs now, he said, is new transformative technologies in energy, especially ones that could boost the competitiveness of renewable, carbon-free technologies.

In a seeming reference to recent controversy over federal loan guarantees for the solar-panel maker Solyndra, Chu pointed out that a century ago the government had invested in the development of airplane technology, providing grants to Samuel Langley to develop the first human-carrying, heavier-than-air flying machine. After two spectacular failures, Langley threw in the towel — and nine days later, the Wright brothers succeeded in making their first flight, without any government support.

“Congress was outraged,” Chu said, charging that the government shouldn’t have been “picking winners” with federal funds. “Some things never change,” he added....MORE
HT: Next Big Future who writes:
Other countries are working on better materials as well
Stronger steel and aluminum alloys and redesigning car parts to reduce weight is likely to have the most impact in reducing vehicle weight. 10% reduction in vehicle weight provides a 6-7% boost in fuel efficiency.

Mazda Motor Corporation, in collaboration with Sumitomo Metal Industries, Ltd. and Aisin Takaoka Co., Ltd., became the first automaker to successfully develop vehicle components using 1,800 MPa ultra-high tensile steel. The super-strength steel will debut in the new Mazda CX-5 crossover SUV that will commence its global launch in early 2012.

Mazda’s new production technology uses 1,800 MPa ultra-high tensile steel to fabricate bumper beams, which fit inside the front and rear bumpers and mitigate damage in the event of a collision. The bumper bars are 20% stronger and 4.8 kilograms lighter than previous versions and are a key part of Mazda’s next-generation, lightweight and highly rigid vehicle architecture.

Toray Industries, which got its start making rayon and is now the largest producer of carbon fiber. Teijin, another company that began in textiles, also presented a concept car based on carbon fiber in March this year. The two companies are beginning a major push to market carbon fiber to car companies as a serious substitute for the heavier steel-based designs of today. Even with a 200-kilogram battery, this car weighs 846 kilograms which is about half the weight of a comparable regular car....MORE

See also:

What It Takes: Building a Materials Science Company for the 21st Century
 DARPA and Smart Dust
Materials Science: Use Your Electric Car's Bodywork as the Battery
A Problem at The Smithsonian's New "Department of Innovation" Blog
"What Happened to Nanotech?" TINY; PXN
Andre Geim First in History to Win Both the Nobel and the IgNobel Prizes
The Word for the Year is Innovation--And President Eisenhower Stops By
"Innovation, Schminnovation – Welcome to the Boring Age"
How 3M Got Its (Innovation) Groove Back (MMM)
Fail Often, Fail Fast: "Are We Behind On Innovation That Matters?" 
 A Major Piece: "Why the tech revolution isn’t a template for an energy revolution"
Free download: 10 terabytes of patents and trademarks (GOOG) 
Venture Capital: "Selling Agriculture 2.0 to Silicon Valley"

And many more

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

"Is Google's AI Actually Discovering 'Millions of New Materials?'" (GOOG; EVIL)

 Magic 8-ball says "No" (also Betteridge)

From 404 Media April 11: 

"In the DeepMind paper there are many examples of predicted materials that are clearly nonsensical."

In November, Google’s AI outfit DeepMind published a press release titled “Millions of new materials discovered with deep learning." But now, researchers who have analyzed a subset of what DeepMind discovered say "we have yet to find any strikingly novel compounds" in that subset.

“AI tool GNoME finds 2.2 million new crystals, including 380,000 stable materials that could power future technologies,” Google wrote of the finding, adding that this was “equivalent to nearly 800 years’ worth of knowledge,” that many of the discoveries “escaped previous human chemical intuition,” and that it was “an order-of-magnitude expansion in stable materials known to humanity.” The paper was published in Nature and was picked up very widely in the press as an example of the incredible promise of AI in science. 

Another paper, published at the same time and done by researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory “in partnership with Google DeepMind … shows how our AI predictions can be leveraged for autonomous material synthesis,” Google wrote. In this experiment, researchers created an “autonomous laboratory” (A-Lab) that used “computations, historical data from the literature, machine learning, and active learning to plan and interpret the outcomes of experiments performed using robotics.” Essentially, the researchers used AI and robots to remove humans from the laboratory, and came out the other end after 17 days having discovered and synthesized new materials, which the researchers wrote “demonstrates the effectiveness of artificial intelligence-driven platforms for autonomous materials discovery.” 

But in the last month, two external groups of researchers that analyzed the DeepMind and Berkeley papers and published their own analyses that at the very least suggest this specific research is being oversold. Everyone in the materials science world that I spoke to stressed that AI holds great promise for discovering new types of materials. But they say Google and its deep learning techniques have not suddenly made an incredible breakthrough in the materials science world. 

In a perspective paper published in Chemical Materials this week, Anthony Cheetham and Ram Seshadri of the University of California, Santa Barbara selected a random sample of the 380,000 proposed structures released by DeepMind and say that none of them meet a three-part test of whether the proposed material is “credible,” “useful,” and “novel.” They believe that what DeepMind found are “crystalline inorganic compounds and should be described as such, rather than using the more generic label ‘material,’” which they say is a term that should be reserved for things that “demonstrate some utility.” 

In the analysis, they write “we have yet to find any strikingly novel compounds in the GNoME and Stable Structure listings, although we anticipate that there must be some among the 384,870 compositions. We also note that, while many of the new compositions are trivial adaptations of known materials, the computational approach delivers credible overall compositions, which gives us confidence that the underlying approach is sound.” 

"most of them might be credible, but they’re not very novel because 
they’re simple derivatives of things that are already known"

....MUCH MORE

There seems to be a deep dishonesty coming out of Google and Google AI.

And that would be entirely on the people at Google:

"Why AI bias is a systemic rather than a technological problem"

Following up on March 31's "The Purpose Of A System Is What It Does...":

“....There is after all,” Beer observed, “no point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do.”

In late February when Google's Gemini generative AI generated some hubbub with the portraits of a black George Washington or a black Nazi, commenters missed the point of what the people at Google were doing. As Marc Andreessen—a guy who knows something about tech having developed the first commercial browser, among other things—put it regarding these so-called 'mistakes':

Possibly related at 404 Media, April 12:

OpenAI Training Bot Crawls 'World's Lamest Content Farm' 3 Million Times in One Day

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Timelines of 13 Emerging Nanotechnologies And Materials

From Policy Horizons Canada via Business Insider:
Policy Horizons Canada worked with futurist and data visualizer Michell Zappa of Envisioning to produce a report called MetaScan 3: Emerging Technologies and accompanying infographics. We are reproducing the summary for emerging nano technologies and materials science.

Next-generation materials include super-light materials and active materials that react to changes in their environment and ultimately smart materials that explain how they are doing. Functional materials follow by borrowing ideas from biology to improve performance and add new behaviours. Self-assembling materials are about making large-scale products that are more precise, enabling better properties (strength, tear resistance, conductivity, etc.).

We have included predictions based on consultation with experts of when each technology will be scientifically viable (the kind of stuff that Google, governments, and universities develop), mainstream (when VCs and startups widely invest in it), and financially viable (when the technology is generally available on Kickstarter).

Next-Generation
Superomniphobic materials: Inspired by water bugs that float on liquid surfaces, these materials repel both oily and watery fluids.

Scientifically viable today; mainstream and financially viable in 2015.

Auxetic materials: When stretched, auxetic materials become thicker perpendicular to the applied force. This occurs due to their hinge-like structures, which flex when stretched. Auxetics may be useful in applications such as body armor, packing material, knee and elbow pads, robust shock absorbing material, and sponge mops.

Scientifically viable in 2016; mainstream and financially viable in 2017.

Aerogel: A synthetic porous ultralight material derived from a gel, in which the liquid component of the gel has been replaced with a gas. The result is a solid with extremely low density and thermal conductivity which feels like polystyrene (styrofoam) to the touch. Potential applications include improved thermal insulation, chemical absorber for cleaning up spills, electrochemical supercapacitors and shock absorption. Scientifically viable in 2015; mainstream in 2019; and financially viable in 2021.

Thermo-bimetals: Thermally activated bimetals would allow for panes of glass capable of becoming shades when exposed to the sun, self-regulating energy consumption throughout the day.

Scientifically viable in 2019; mainstream in 2021; and financially viable in 2022....MORE
The Metascan 3 page at Policy Horizons Canada:

MetaScan 3: Emerging Technologies

Supporting Material
Insights
...MUCH MORE

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Solar: What Would You Think of a Cell that Can Trap 85% of Available Light?

I've said it a few times, most recently in last month's "Deep Solar Science at Stanford":
Besides the dependence on subsidies the scariest thing about investing in solar is the possibility that some lab in Shenzen or Cambridge (both of 'em) or Cali will come up with something that makes current technology obsolete overnight....
Here's some more lab work, via EurekAlert:

Caltech researchers create highly absorbing, flexible solar cells with silicon wire arrays

Using arrays of long, thin silicon wires embedded in a polymer substrate, a team of scientists from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) has created a new type of flexible solar cell that enhances the absorption of sunlight and efficiently converts its photons into electrons. The solar cell does all this using only a fraction of the expensive semiconductor materials required by conventional solar cells.

"These solar cells have, for the first time, surpassed the conventional light-trapping limit for absorbing materials," says Harry Atwater, Howard Hughes Professor, professor of applied physics and materials science, and director of Caltech's Resnick Institute, which focuses on sustainability research.

The light-trapping limit of a material refers to how much sunlight it is able to absorb. The silicon-wire arrays absorb up to 96 percent of incident sunlight at a single wavelength and 85 percent of total collectible sunlight. "We've surpassed previous optical microstructures developed to trap light," he says.

Atwater and his colleagues—including Nathan Lewis, the George L. Argyros Professor and professor of chemistry at Caltech, and graduate student Michael Kelzenberg—assessed the performance of these arrays in a paper appearing in the February 14 advance online edition of the journal Nature Materials.

Atwater notes that the solar cells' enhanced absorption is "useful absorption."

"Many materials can absorb light quite well but not generate electricity—like, for instance, black paint," he explains. "What's most important in a solar cell is whether that absorption leads to the creation of charge carriers."

The silicon wire arrays created by Atwater and his colleagues are able to convert between 90 and 100 percent of the photons they absorb into electrons—in technical terms, the wires have a near-perfect internal quantum efficiency. "High absorption plus good conversion makes for a high-quality solar cell," says Atwater. "It's an important advance."

The key to the success of these solar cells is their silicon wires, each of which, says Atwater, "is independently a high-efficiency, high-quality solar cell." When brought together in an array, however, they're even more effective, because they interact to increase the cell's ability to absorb light....MORE

HT: FuturePundit whose commenters seem to be reasonably sharp.

There are two areas of knowledge required for the next industrial revolution, this is an example of one of them, materials science at the nano level.

The other is manufacturing science where, in the first industrial revolution, it seemed that half the engineers in the world were Scottish. Who's going to step up this time?

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Real Science: "Genomics Has Revealed An Age Undreamed Of"

So much of what tries to pass itself off as science isn't.*

And then there's Mendel and Mendeleev. They laid the base.

From Palladium Magazine, November 17:

On June 26, 2000, President Bill Clinton announced the completion of the draft of the human genome at a press conference with the two project leads, Francis Collins and J. Craig Venter. A genome is all the genetic information of an organism. Scientists had conceived of the Human Genome Project in the 1980s, and, in the first half of the 1990s, expected it to be an endeavor that would go on for decades. But an unexpected technological revolution of faster computers and better chemistry accelerated the ten-year effort toward the finish line, just as the 20th century came to a close.

The American-led international effort cost more than $3 billion dollars and involved thousands of people. Since then, the last 23 years of the 21st century have seen a sea change in the landscape of genomics, from blue-sky basic science to mass-market consumer products. Companies like Nebula now provide entire genome sequences that are medical-grade quality for $200; down from a price point of $20,000 just 13 years ago. We’ve gone from a single mapped genome—that of humanity—to more than a million genomes. This is a case where quantity has a quality all its own; the commoditization of genomic sequencing has radically transformed how we do genetics.

Yet at the dawn of this brave new genomic era, it is not health and well-being outcomes that have been revolutionized. Rather, genomics as a window into the human past has vindicated Alfred Tennyson’s poetic assertion that nature is “red in tooth and claw.” Where a few decades ago archaeologists and historians had to cobble together inferences from pottery shards, slotting their data into theories that owed more to political fashions of the present than scientific facts of the past, today they can chart the rise and fall of peoples from the clear evidence of the genes.

Collins and Venter promised a shiny future of good health and a more enlightened understanding of humanity’s place in the world, but their invention has, instead, unleashed knowledge of a bygone age of brutality reminiscent of Conan the Barbarian’s Hyperborean Age. Historians can list Genghis Khan’s concubines, but it is genetics that tells us that 10% of Central Asian men are his direct paternal descendants, bringing home the magnitude of his conquests. But obviously, we aren’t fated to relive the brutality of the past; just as technology can open a window back in time, it can unlock the door to a brighter future. The question is what advances we as species wish to make.

The Book of Nature Has a Billion Pages
A single human genome has two copies of each gene, of which there are 19,000. These 19,000 genes are distributed across three billion base pairs of adenine, cytosine, guanine, and thymine, or ACGT for short. Notably, the number of genes that humans have has been discovered only within the last twenty years, even though genetics as a scientific field is over 150 years old. The reason for this recent explosion in our knowledge is that, before the 1990s, genetics probed a digital process—the recombination of discrete units of heredity from the same and different individuals—with analog means. The correlation of characteristics between parents and offspring is intuitively obvious, but the mechanisms by which inheritance occurs are not self-evident.

Our naïve assumption is that the characteristics blend together, resulting in a child who is a synthesis of the traits of the parents e.g. a short parent and a tall parent will produce medium-height offspring. But the implication of this model is that, over the generations, all human variation should be blended away as each generation is the average of the previous one. That simply does not occur. Humans remain as variable as they have been in the past. The insight of Mendelian genetics is that inheritance does not proceed through blending, but through the rearrangement of discrete units of variation.

At about the same time that Charles Darwin was revolutionizing our understanding of the tree of life with his theory of evolutionary change through natural selection, an Austrian monk named Gregor Mendel stumbled upon the framework that would later be called genetics. Between 1856 and 1863, he realized that inheritance seemed to be mediated by particular units of inheritance he called “factors,” and would later be called genes. Mendel hypothesized complex organisms had two copies of many factors, discrete bundles of information that were rearranged every generation through the law of segregation—that you inherit one copy of a gene from each parent—and the law of independent assortment, that you inherit factors independently from each other.

Mendel came to these insights through a famous set of experiments where he crossed lines of peas with distinct characteristics and noted that some traits bred true and others did not. Two short pea plants always produced short pea plants. But two tall pea plants sometimes also produced short pea plants. A model of blending inheritance cannot explain recessive traits, but a Mendelian framework can. Whereas intuitive blendings of inheritance take the visible traits as the only variables of interest in understanding intergenerational change in characteristics, Mendelian genetics implies that phenotypes emerge from the interactions of underlying genotypes.

These genotypes are the true factors through which variation is preserved from generation to generation; an organism’s visible characteristics are only pointers to the true underlying heritable variation present in the genes. Darwin’s Origin of Species was published in 1859 to great fanfare, but Darwin famously lacked a plausible mechanism of inheritance that could maintain the variation that was necessary for natural selection. Mendel provided the answer, but the Austrian monk’s single 1866 paper, “Experiments on Plant Hybridization,” was ignored by the scientific community of the time, only to be rediscovered around 1900, when the modern field of genetics was born....

....MUCH MORE
*It is tough to beat "Glaciers, Gender, and Science":
A feminist glaciology framework for global environmental change research

Abstract

Glaciers are key icons of climate change and global environmental change. However, the relationships among gender, science, and glaciers – particularly related to epistemological questions about the production of glaciological knowledge – remain understudied. This paper thus proposes a feminist glaciology framework with four key components: 1) knowledge producers; (2) gendered science and knowledge; (3) systems of scientific domination; and (4) alternative representations of glaciers. Merging feminist postcolonial science studies and feminist political ecology, the feminist glaciology framework generates robust analysis of gender, power, and epistemologies in dynamic social-ecological systems, thereby leading to more just and equitable science and human-ice interactions.

I Introduction

Glaciers are icons of global climate change, with common representations stripping them of social and cultural contexts to portray ice as simplified climate change yardsticks and thermometers. In geophysicist Henry Pollack’s articulation, ‘Ice asks no questions, presents no arguments, reads no newspapers, listens to no debates. It is not burdened by ideology and carries no political baggage as it crosses the threshold from solid to liquid. It just melts’ (Pollack, 2009: 114). This perspective appears consistently in public discourse, from media to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But the ‘ice is just ice’ conceptualization contrasts sharply with conclusions by researchers such as Cruikshank (2005), who asks if glaciers listen, Orlove et al. (2008b), who analyze the cultural framing of glaciers, Carey (2007), who sees an endangered species narrative applied to glaciers, Jackson (2015), who exposes how glaciers are depicted as ruins, and Sörlin (2015), who refers to the present as a cryo-historical moment because ‘ice has become historical, i.e. that ice is an element of change and thus something that can be considered as part of society and of societal concern’ (Sörlin, 2015: 327)....
Some previous posts on real science:
"Science without Validation in a World without Meaning"
From American Affairs Journal:

Physicist Richard Feynman had the following advice for those interested in science: “So I hope you can accept Nature as She is—absurd.”1 Here Feynman captures in stark terms the most basic insight of modern science: nature is not understandable in terms of ordinary physical concepts and is, therefore, absurd.

The unintelligibility of nature has huge consequences when it comes to determining the validity of a scientific theory. On this question, Feynman also had a concise answer: “It is whether or not the theory gives predictions that agree with experiment. It is not a question of whether a theory is philosophically delightful, or easy to understand, or perfectly reasonable from the point of view of common sense.”2 So put reasonableness and common sense aside when judging a scientific theory. Put your conceptual models and visualizations away. They might help you formulate a theory, or they might not. They might help to explain a theory, or they might obfuscate it. But they cannot validate it, nor can 
they give it meaning....

"Nanotechnology Facets of the Periodic Table of Elements"
From the American Chemical Society's ACS Nano:

Abstract
The 150th anniversary of the periodic table of elements highlights its tremendous role in chemistry, physics, biology, astronomy, philosophy, and engineering as a shining scientific breakthrough, shedding light on the fundamental laws of nature. Nanoscience and nanotechnology are multidisciplinary, focusing on nanoscale materials and processes, in which a variety of elements are used and single atoms are often manipulated. In this Perspective, we present a new viewpoint on what the renown periodic table can offer to researchers working on nanomaterials.
The United Nations General Assembly decreed 2019 as the International Year of the Periodic Table of Chemical Elements in an effort to highlight the importance of the periodic table as one of the most influential discoveries in modern science. The periodic table, created 150 years ago, is of fundamental importance for various branches of chemistry, physics, and biology as well as a powerful and precise tool for predictable design of innovative chemical compounds and materials.(1) Different elements have played critical roles in different periods of human activities, with Si being a key element, at present. However, the nanotechnology age has brought different elements into the limelight and transformed their roles in science and technology. We briefly discuss those elements and their applications in nanomaterials in this Perspective.
 
The periodic table, created 150 years ago, is of fundamental importance for various branches of chemistry, physics, and biology as well as a powerful and precise tool for predictable design of innovative chemical compounds and materials.
Energy, Information, and Light. s- and p-Block Elements as the Gems of Nanotechnology

Nitrogen Upgraded, Potash Target Lowered; Ununquadium Decayed (AGU, CF; TRA; POT)

To my mind one of the goals of science or investing should be enough mastery and understanding to enable prediction. The greatest example in science was probably Dmitri Mendeleev's creation of the periodic table and his insight that he should leave spaces for elements not yet discovered.
His prediction of the properties of gallium, germanium and scandium contrasts with pseudo-science in that it is testable.

If you ever want to piss an economist off, tell them that just because they use a tool of science (mathematics), that alone doesn't make economics a science. Science is falsifiable. Mendeleev had a swing-and-a-miss on the atomic weight of tellurium, the prediction was falsified, showing that this is a true science.
Ununquadium is element 114, discovered in 1998. We're now up to 118, ununoctium, with a gap at 117. The prediction of the properties of the undiscovered element includes a half-life of 3 nanoseconds.

This ramble was triggered by a discussion last night on alternatives to gallium (in CIGS) and tellurium in CdTe thin films. It was the first time I realized an argument could be made that Mendeleev is the father of thin-film solar. Continuing our trip through the periodic table, on to the nitrogen story, from Notable Calls....

Sometimes I am just plain ornery:

Reproducibility is pretty much the cornerstone of science. And yet some Bozo can come out and say:
People on all sides of the recent push for direct replication—a push I find both charming and naive—are angry....
and keep his pathetic little job. As the young people used to phrase the rejoinder: L

By the way, that was  James Coan, who calls himself Dr. although he apparently didn't have the intellectual horsepower to become a Chiropractor or D.D.S., writing in the Journal Medium.

Rather than the two honorable professions named above he's a freakin' Associate Professor of Clinical Psychology at the University of Virginia.
Jefferson weeps.

See, the thing is, if what one is writing about can't be reproduced, that kind of writing is called 'Literature'.
And, although gentle reader probably doesn't care, yes, I know the difference between replication and reproducibility.
Serious stuff.

I've mentioned the fact that if you can't can't replicate what you're doing, what you're doing isn't science. It might be metaphysics, it might be pseudoscience, it might be religion, it might be any number of things but it isn't science.

Reproducibility and falsifiability, along with predictive power are pretty much the definition of science.
(here's a quick explanation of the difference between reproducibility and replicability in science) 

What Mendeleev did in describing the properties of as-yet undiscovered elements was science. So-called post-normal science is not, it's policymaking gussied up with sciency sounding words.

See Feynman's 1974 Caltech commencement address. Cargo Cult Science for a really smart guy's take on the issue.... 

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Materials Science: Using AI To Find New Chip-Making Materials

From Asia Times, October 8:

AI fueling rapid race for new chip-making materials
AI-powered autonomous experimentation, or AI/AE, driving paradigm shift in materials science for semiconductors and beyond  

The US Department of Commerce has announced an open competition to demonstrate “how AI can assist in developing new sustainable semiconductor materials and processes that meet industry needs and can be designed and adopted within five years.”

Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology Laurie Locascio calls this “a unique opportunity to make the United States a world leader in efficient, safe, high-volume, and competitive semiconductor manufacturing.” Locascio is also director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Up to US$100 million will be awarded by the CHIPS Research and Development Office (CHIPS R&D) to winners who “develop university-led, industry-informed, collaborations about artificial intelligence-powered autonomous experimentation (AI/AE) relevant to sustainable semiconductor manufacturing.”

CHIPS R&D was established by the US CHIPS and Science Act, which US President Joe Biden signed into law in August 2022. The law provides the Department of Commerce with $50 billion for programs intended to strengthen and revitalize US semiconductor manufacturing and R&D.

Of that amount, $39 billion went to the CHIPS Program Office for investment in facilities and equipment in the United States, including high-profile factories being built by Taiwan's TSMC and America's Intel. $11 billion was allocated to CHIPS R&D for projects such as this one.

“For the US semiconductor industry to flourish in the long-term,” the Commerce Department writes,“it must be able to develop innovative and commercially competitive technologies to sustainably produce materials and manufacture chips in a way that protects the environment and local communities.”....

....MUCH MORE

And then, be still my heart, will the chips learn to train the next generation?  

Getting a bit of a double ouroboros vibe here:

Here at Ouroboros Group we believe a self-referential vortex of strange loops is the key to exceptional market depravity and thus dream demon returns at rates essentially double those of typical simple ouroboros techniques and paradigms.
https://yallambie.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/ouroboros.jpg
—from 2018's Unicorns Backing Their Own VCs? Welcome to Peak Tech

Friday, January 6, 2012

Possibly Major Materials Science Breakthrough: "Carbon Dioxide Super Scrubber?"

 Why do I think the next secular bull market will be based on some combination of 
materials science, advanced manufacturing and nanotechnology?...

That's me, quoting myself.
From the Christian Science Monitor:
Scientists have announced a potential breakthrough in developing a new material that removes carbon dioxide from the air. CO2 scrubbing could be a useful tool against global warming

Using cheap, readily available materials, a team of chemists has developed a new compound for drawing carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

The compound holds the potential to drive down the cost of capturing carbon, although it's too early to say by how much, the scientists say.

The results "add to the list of possible materials that can absorb CO2 from the air, and it potentially could be quite a good one," says Klaus Lackner, who heads the department of earth and environmental engineering at Columbia University in New York and was not part of the team formulating the material....MORE
Here's the paper, recently published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society:

Carbon Dioxide Capture from the Air Using a Polyamine Based Regenerable Solid Adsorbent
 Alain Goeppert*, Miklos Czaun, Robert B. May, G. K. Surya Prakash*, George A. Olah*,
and S. R. Narayanan
 Abstract
Abstract Image
Easy to prepare solid materials based on fumed silica impregnated with polyethylenimine (PEI) were found to be superior adsorbents for the capture of carbon dioxide directly from air. During the initial hours of the experiments, these adsorbents effectively scrubbed all the CO2 from the air despite its very low concentration. The effect of moisture on the adsorption characteristics and capacity was studied at room temperature. Regenerative ability was also determined in a short series of adsorption/desorption cycles.
That Olah fellow is a bit slower than the rest, he's encumbered by some hardware 
And here..

Sunday, July 19, 2015

How Silicon Valley Could Really Change the World

But see the post below for the percentage of gains that accrue to the innovator.
From City Journal, July 5:

Today’s tech firms have yet to match their predecessors for transformative discoveries.
When it comes to technology and money, all roads lead to Silicon Valley. But when it comes to support for world-changing science, today’s tech leaders think small. The world awaits the first Nobel Prize for a Google, Apple, or Amazon scientist, or for a researcher funded by any Silicon Valley company. It could be a long wait, given the paltry spending by leading tech companies on the kind of basic science that fuels revolutions and changes civilization.

Compare and contrast: Bell Labs was just 12 years old when one of its scientists won the 1937 Nobel Prize in physics. Bell researchers went on to receive a total of eight Nobels, equaling the historic record of Cornell University and topping Princeton by one (counting science prizes). Five Nobels have gone to researchers at IBM’s labs, established in 1945 to pursue not just new products but also pure science.

The Nobel is just one metric, but it’s a powerful indicator of an institution’s culture and vision. If you google the histories of any of yesterday’s tech giants, from Bell Labs and IBM to GE, DuPont, RCA, Xerox PARC, Ford, and Exxon (one of whose scientists discovered the lithium battery), you’ll find long lists of foundational discoveries in basic materials and science, comparable with those of top research universities. By comparison, today’s accomplishments from Silicon Valley firms are all about products: self-driving cars, clever Apps, thinner smartphones, drones, robotic warehouses, virtual-reality goggles, or a $100,000 electric car.

When Apple reported a $500 million jump in R&D spending for the first quarter of this year, Valley watchers tweeted that something “positively massive” and “disruptive” might be on the horizon—maybe an electric car or a 3-D TV. After all, a mere $150 million bump in Apple’s R&D helped launch the iPhone. But none of these fascinating products rise to the disruptive class of, for example, the first transistor, the first computer or laser, the genome, the semiconductor, the photoelectric effect, the mechanism underlying photosynthesis, or the mathematics of game theory—to say nothing of formulating the laws of electromagnetism or quantum mechanics.

It’s not that disruption (possibly the second most over-used tech word, after “awesome”) isn’t wired into Silicon Valley’s ecosystem. But foundational economic and social transformations don’t come from making products to compete with cab or power companies; they come from basic research that radically advances our understanding of—and thus derivatively, our ability to manipulate and literally engineer—nature’s underlying laws and materials. The apotheosis of such progress is the domain of the Nobel Prizes.

It is time for today’s tech giants to expand their vision in a way that would win a few Nobels. They need to step up, be bold, and make history by launching a major initiative to invest in basic science. This is a critical time. America has exhausted the extant model, dating back to World War II, for funding basic research. Our overall spending on basic research has been declining, a fact highlighted by the broad coalition of universities and researchers that has launched The Innovation Deficit project.

Despite the fact that government has already pared back funding for basic science research, political pressure increases to fund more practical and near-term objectives—in effect, to have federal R&D operate more like corporate R&D—even though there is no crisis in applied research. Business spends more than four times as much on R&D as all federal programs combined (excluding defense). But corporate support for basic science lags at well under 5 percent of total private-sector R&D spending, and even that portion is at risk. One recent survey of business leaders found rising pressure for results-centric funding. Not even corporations lauded as innovators support much basic science, choosing instead to concentrate on engineering projects. Google’s Advanced Technology and Projects group, for example, targets projects with a two-year deadline for commercial viability. Google makes no apology for this sensible business focus, but such metrics bear no resemblance to the timelines of knowledge-centric basic inquiry.

It’s not as though there were no need for scientific discovery, whether in agriculture, health care, or energy. Google’s own engineers recently concluded that their company’s pursuit of new energy technologies to compete with hydrocarbons was doomed without new science. In 2011, Google cancelled a much-ballyhooed project to try to create alternatives cheaper than coal. Google learned what many others already knew: new physics in energy have yet to be discovered. But who knows what scientists will one day learn about, say, the mysteries of “dark energy,” which could infuse the universe. But that’s the domain of basic science—in this case, astrophysics.

Tantalizing science remains unplumbed (with unrealized applications) in myriad areas. To note a few: in the biology of extremophile bacteria (maybe one day engineered to yield finished diesel), in quantum physics (leading to perfect encryption), hyperbolic metamaterials (from invisibility cloaks to computer chips that will leave today’s in the dust), nanoparticle biochemistry (delivering cancer therapeutics at the sub-cellular level), extreme chemistry (catalysts that unlock cheap hydrogen), and complex mathematics (conquering the big-data analytics from health diagnostics to car traffic). And none of this touches on the unlimited “unknown unknowns” yet to be revealed in science....MORE