From Asia Times, March 4:
Iran apparently perceives the Gulf States to be easy targets, but an attack on Turkey would carry far greater risks
Iran has attacked US bases in the Gulf States on the pretext that they were used to some extent by the US in its joint campaign with Israel against Iran. By that standard, however, it’s notable that Iran hasn’t attacked the two US bases in Turkey, namely its airbase in Incirlik and its radar one in Kurecik.
Turkey directly borders Iran, after all, unlike the Arab kingdoms on the other side of the Gulf or nearby in Kuwait’s case. One might therefore expect that Iran would have hit the US bases there by now. Here’s why it hasn’t:
1. The Gulf States Are Easy Targets, Very Vulnerable, & Low-Risk
Iran believes that the Gulf States aren’t anywhere near as prepared for war as Turkey is, their economies can be shattered by drone strikes alone and their armed forces’ lack of military experience, apart from some of them fighting the Houthis, means that Iran doesn’t think they could retaliate all that significantly.
There’s also much longer and worse mutual animosity between them, especially given that Iran believes that they’re also persecuting its fellow Shiite believes, than between Iran and Turkey by a long shot.
Nevertheless, the aforesaid calculations might be mistaken and could come back to bite Iran depending on how its conflict with the US and Israel evolves.
For instance, if Iran’s air defenses are destroyed by those two, then one, some, or all of the Gulf States that it attacked might unilaterally or in coalition with each other (even if some sit it out) carry out highly publicized bombings of Iran for revenge.
That would be a humiliating way to end the war if Iran is defeated soon after, even if it doesn’t officially surrender.
2. The Turkish Armed Forces Have Proven Their Formidableness
Whatever one’s opinion about Turkey’s domestic and/or foreign policies might be, it would be dishonest to deny how formidable its armed forces are after years of battle against the now-defeated Syrian Kurds, which at one time fielded their own unofficial armed forces at the apex of their power.
Turkey also has experience fighting General Haftar’s forces in Libya and speculatively against Armenia during 2020’s Karabakh Conflict. These deployments helped its armed forces perfect their drone warfare skills too.
Turkey is therefore able to deter Iran solely through its proven strength, and if provoked, it could invade Iran just like Iraq did and thus throw its armed forces into the dilemma of either letting them barrel through or assembling in the field to stop them at the risk of becoming easy targets for the US and Israel.
Iran is already struggling to withstand those two’s aerial onslaught, so even the pluckiest newly decentralized units of the IRGC might reasonably think twice before targeting Turkey and risking that.
3. Turkey’s NATO Membership & Alliance With Azerbaijan Deter Iran...
....MUCH MORE
