Sunday, March 8, 2026

"The Strait of Hormuz is not closed."

The writer, Captain John Konrad is the founder and CEO of gCaptain among other endeavors.

Continues:

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed.

Iran’s military declared it shut on March 2nd. But Greek shipowner George Prokopiou doesn’t care. His company Dynacom has pushed at least five tankers through since Operation Epic Fury began. 

Dark fleet tankers are still hauling Iranian crude out of Kharg Island. 

Several sanctioned tankers linked to Iran were damaged in attacks this week, but traffic continues.

It’s a trickle, not a blockade. And that distinction matters.

Here’s what the data shows (Poten & Partners, March 6)

Oil cargo transits through Hormuz collapsed from ~100/day to near zero after strikes began, but a handful of ships keep moving. War risk insurance jumped from 0.1% to 1.0% of vessel value, 3% if you’re U.S. or Israel-affiliated. Premiums that high create a de facto blockade for most commercial operators, even if the waterway is technically open.

Tanker rates are at record highs. VLCCs earning $400,000-500,000/day on short-term floating storage contracts. Ships are stuck in the Arabian Gulf. Others are stacking up in the Gulf of Oman waiting for cargoes that may never come.

Brent crude went from $72 the Friday before the war to $90+ and climbing. The U.S. responded with SPR releases and a 30-day waiver letting Indian refiners buy Russian crude from sanctioned tankers, if loaded before March 5th.

The real question nobody in Washington is answering: what happens if this lasts weeks, not days? ...

....MUCH MORE 

Interesting throughout. 
(for some reason that first line has me thinking Shakespeare)

Earlier on the strait:

JPMorgan On Oil Volumes Removed From The Market Due To Strait Of Hormuz Closure

"There’s No Escaping It. The Strait of Hormuz Must Be Reopened."

A Modest Proposal For Reopening The Strait of Hormuz
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