Thursday, March 5, 2026

Capital Markets: "War-Driven Markets"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The Gulf War continues rage. China has reportedly told top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline. The disruption is beginning to impact shipments of fertilizer, chemicals, aluminum, as well as natural gas and oil fuels. In the next few days, several countries will reportedly run out of storage capacity and will have to cut output. Other secondary impacts include worker remittances from the region, which are important for several Asian countries, including India and the Philippines. 

The US dollar is mostly firmer but largely within the recent ranges. The inflationary implications are higher energy prices continue to press bond yields higher. With April WTI still well below levels many thought likely if the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut, there seems to still be a sense that the war can end shortly, though hope may be getting ahead of reality....

....MUCH MORE