Bowman is one of the two Fed Governors we pay especial attention to, despite the fact that she, like Fed Head Powell is an attorney rather than a banker or economist. She is the Fed's regulation overseer and seems to have a pretty good feel for banks not named JPMorganChase. She was the banking commissioner for the state of Kansas and officially sits in the community banking chair.
The other one we watch is Lorie Logan at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. From her official mini-bio:
....Prior to leading the Bank, President Logan spent more than two decades working in the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. She was previously manager of the System Open Market Account for the FOMC and an executive vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In that role, she managed the Federal Reserve’s securities portfolio and led the implementation of monetary policy as directed by the FOMC....
Here's her thinking on rates and the balance sheet in an address to SIFMA last October.
And from Reuters, July 9, the headline story:
The Federal Reserve's vice chair of supervision, Michelle Bowman, on Saturday said recent weak job data underscores her concerns about labor market fragility and strengthens her confidence in her own forecast that three interest-rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.Bowman was one of two Fed governors to dissent last month against the U.S. central bank's decision to leave short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range where they have been since December.Most Fed officials have been more cautious about lower rates given the potential they see that the Trump administration's tariffs could disrupt progress on getting inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal. In recent days, however, several Fed policymakers appear to have moved closer to supporting cuts."Taking action at last week’s meeting would have proactively hedged against the risk of a further erosion in labor market conditions and a further weakening in economic activity," Bowman said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association. Bowman's remarks leaned even more heavily into her concerns about a labor market downturn than reflected in her post-meeting explanation of her policy vote.The Labor Department's monthly employment report last Friday showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% -- "close to rounding up to 4.3%" was how Bowman described it Saturday. The report also included revisions to previously published data, showing that job gains slowed sharply over the last three months to a monthly average of 35,000."This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand," Bowman said. "My Summary of Economic Projections includes three cuts for this year, which has been consistent with my forecast since last December, and the latest labor market data reinforce my view."The Fed has three remaining policy meetings scheduled for this year, in September, October and December.Economists typically point to 100,000 monthly job gains as being consistent with a steady-state labor market, though with big reductions in immigration since President Donald Trump began his second term in January that number is likely lower....
....MUCH MORE
