Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Inflation: Headline CPI Up 0.2% In July; Up 2.7% Year-over-Year

Bloomberg's survey had headline CPI up 0.2%, down from June’s 0.3%.

YoY guesses were 2.8% in July, up from a 2.7% rise in June.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 12:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - JULY 2025

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. 
Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year....

...MUCH MORE, Tables, discussion.  

Looking at the first table (A), utilities—electricity and piped natural gas—were up 7.2% of the last twelve months. 

The pundits will point to core rising MoM and YoY but equity speculators seem pleased with the print. 

Here's the always interesting Table 2:

Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category